Rangers vs Maple Leafs Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Upping the Shot Volume

The Rangers seek revenge after getting thumped on home ice vs. these very Maple Leafs just a short time ago. Our betting picks are eschewing a side on the moneyline and total, instead looking at player props for the best value tonight.

Dec 19, 2023 • 13:50 ET • 4 min read
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This article contains predictions for an old game!

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We’ve got 11 games on the NHL slate tonight, including an Original Six battle between the Toronto Maple Leafs and the New York Rangers.

The NHL odds favor the Leafs on home ice after beating this same Rangers squad one week ago. Can they do it again, or will the Rangers get revenge on the road?

Find out in my free NHL picks for this December 19 matchup between New York and Toronto.

Rangers vs Maple Leafs odds

Rangers vs Maple Leafs predictions

The Toronto Maple Leafs enter tonight’s game with an impressive 10-4-1 record over their last 15 games and are coming off the most dominant win of the season, a 7-0 drubbing of the Pittsburgh Penguins. 

Meanwhile, the New York Rangers come to town riding a two-game winning streak and are fresh off a 2-1 shootout victory against Boston. 

These clubs met one week ago at MSG when the Leafs laid a beating on New York in its own home building. I don’t expect the same result tonight, as New York will be a lot more prepared, especially at the start of it. 

New York needs to exploit the number of shots on net Toronto has been giving up this year, ranking 28th in shots against with 32.5 per game. With Joseph Woll injured, Martin Jones is the projected starter, and although he’s coming off a win in New York followed by a shutout victory over Pittsburgh, the Rangers need to send as much rubber on the net as possible to try and throw him off his game. Thus, the value in tonight’s game lies in the shot prop market. 

Enter Chris Kreider

Kreider has been elevated to the Rangers' top line where he has become the trigger man of his trio and is a focal point on the team’s first power-play unit, averaging 18:29 of ice time. This should give him ample opportunity to be out on the attack and throw pucks on the net to get us to the 3+ shots we need. 

Additionally, it’s a number he’s blown passed in four straight outings, averaging 4.75 shots per game in that span. With Toronto giving up high-volume shots, he should be able to reach this total. He did go Over this number last week too, when he registered three shots on net in just over 15 minutes of ice time. 

My best bet: Chris Kreider Over 2.5 shots on goal (-150 at SIA)

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Rangers vs Maple Leafs same-game parlay

Chris Kreider anytime goal

Rangers +1.5

Under 7.5 alt total

For leg one of my same-game parlay, I like a Chris Krieder anytime goal. He’s so vital to that New York offense, and there’s a good chance one of those 3+ shots on goal we need for the best bet hits the back of the net considering Toronto's overall struggles on the defensive end and between the pipes. 

Next up, let’s take the Rangers on the spread. Fading the Leafs on the puck line has been a profitable play all year, as the team has only covered eight of 28 times. Plus, these games have been close in recent history, with five of the last seven being decided by just one goal. 

For my final leg, let’s roll with Under 7.5 on the alternate total. The Leafs have been scoring a bunch lately, averaging 4+ goals a game over their last 15 games. However, I think the Rangers will seek revenge tonight after giving up a touchdown a week ago on home ice. I suspect more of a slower-paced game with both sides playing detailed, structured hockey. This is how the Rangers win games, after all, averaging just 3.38 goals while only giving up 2.72 themselves. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Rangers vs Maple Leafs moneyline and Over/Under analysis

The Maple Leafs opened as slight favorites at -120 odds, with the Rangers paying even money (+100) on the moneyline. Toronto was victorious a week ago in a 7-3 drubbing at MSG. However, that was sprung by a quick start that saw Toronto jump out to a 4-1 lead in the first period. I don’t expect the Rangers' goaltending to be that poor again. 

The total is set at 6.5, shading toward the Under slightly at -115 while the Over sits at -105. The Under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings between these clubs, and after a wild game last week in New York, I’d expect both teams to be tightened up a bit more. It looks like the sharps agree, too, with the majority of the handle expecting a lower total.

Rangers vs Maple Leafs betting trend to know

The New York Rangers have only hit the game total Over in 38 of their last 86 games (44%). Find more NHL betting trends for Rangers vs. Maple Leafs.

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Rangers vs Maple Leafs game info

Location: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON
Date: Tuesday, December 19, 2023
Puck drop: 7:00 p.m. ET
TV: TSN4

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