Today’s NHL Prop Picks and Best Bets: Johnston Lets Loose Against the Buds

Prop bet #1: Wyatt lets it fly at Scotiabank

The Dallas Stars new top line has been a possession-driving force, and winger Wyatt Johnston’s shot volume has skyrocketed skating with Roope Hintz and Jason Robertson. Johnston has 25 shots and 45 attempts across his past eight games, and the trio have clicked for an elite 69.2 Corsi For percentage at 5-on-5.

Even with this checking out as the second leg of a back-to-back road set for Big D, the Toronto Maple Leafs are a middling opponent with 30.5 shots against per game. I also view the absence of bottom-six forwards David Kampf (undisclosed) and Calle Jarnkrok (hand) as notable losses because Toronto already had a top-heavy lineup jumping the boards.

Additionally, Kampf and Jarnkrok respectively rank first and third in shorthanded ice time per game, which should benefit Johnston and the Dallas No. 1 power-play unit.

Simply put, the Wyatt Johnston odds in the shots market haven’t been adjusted enough to account for his new go-to role on the No. 1 line.

Wyatt Johnston prop: Over 2.5 shots (+105 at Bet99)

Prop bet #2: Kurashev singing no Bedard blues

Similar to the entire Chicago Blackhawks roster, Philipp Kurashev’s offensive numbers have fallen off a cliff with star rookie Connor Bedard (jaw) sidelined. Kurashev has only marked the scoresheet in two of 11 games since Bedard was injured, and his year-long numbers also reinforce his offensive reliance on the Chicago rookie.

Kurashev and Bedard have been on the ice for 27 goals across 485 minutes of shared ice time, and Kurashev has only been on the ice for eight goals across 319:33 while skating without Bedard. That’s a difference of 3.34 and 1.5 goals per 60. Of course, that’s just goals they’ve been on the ice for and not actually registering a point.

Additionally, Kurashev has no offensive chemistry with projected linemates Nick Foligno and Taylor Raddysh. The trio have combined for just 1.92 goals per 60 overall without Bedard and just 1.31 per 60 at 5-on-5.

While a home game against the Minnesota Wild isn’t a tough matchup at first glance, Minny is a superior team top to bottom. Additionally, I’m expecting the Wild to take advantage of playing the basement-dwelling Blackhawks on Wednesday. Finally, the lack of scoring success isn’t properly priced into these Philipp Kurashev odds, regardless of the opponent.

Philipp Kurashev prop: Under 0.5 points (-130 at Bet99)

Prop bet #3: Scoring woes continue in Windy City

The Blackhawks have only scored more than two goals in three of 17 games out of the holiday break, and they rank last in both goals per game (1.41) and expected goals per 60 minutes (2.34) during the stretch. Making matters worse, Bedard played the entirety of the first five, and Chicago still only went Over this total once.

Additionally, this game has a 5.5 total, so it’s already expected to be low scoring. And, the Over/Under record through the first two nights of action following the All-Star break is 1-8-1, so I don’t anticipate the Blackhawks suddenly breaking out offensively. 

The Minnesota Wild have been anything but a defensive stalwart to this point of the season, but this is a restart spot against an inferior opponent. There’s statistical correction ahead in goal, and the Wild have dealt with meaningful injuries throughout the season. In particular, netminder Filip Gustavsson is sporting an unsustainably low .896 SV% after posting a high-end .931 mark across 39 appearances last season. I expect him to hold Chicago to two goals or fewer tonight.

Blackhawks prop: Under 2.5 goals (-140 at Bet99)