Today’s NHL Prop Picks and Best Bets: Flames Fall Flat

Prop bet #1: Domi time vs. Devils

Top-line duty and riding shotgun to Toronto Maple Leafs superstar Auston Matthews has been a cushy gig for winger Max Domi, and the first-year Maple Leaf has racked up 10 points across his past 11 games while playing primarily with No. 34.

Matthews, Domi and Tyler Bertuzzi have also been on the ice for an incredible 7.47 goals per 60 minutes while dominating their underlying metrics with an elite 63.5 Corsi For percentage and 68.9 expected goals percentage at 5-on-5 during the noted stretch.

The New Jersey Devils are a favorable opponent for Domi and the Maple Leafs to continue filling the net. Toronto scored five times against New Jersey on Tuesday, and the Devils have now allowed 28 goals across their past seven games. 

Finally, I value these Max Domi odds because New Jersey star Jack Hughes is finished for the season after undergoing shoulder surgery, and he’s the straw that stirs the drink for the Devils.

Max Domi prop: Over 0.5 points (+100 at Bet99)

Prop bet #2: Lean on Laffy

The Philadelphia Flyers can’t buy a save and have allowed a league-high 5.25 goals per game during their active eight-game losing streak. Philly is nearing elimination from the postseason and hit the highway to face the motivated New York Rangers. The first-place Blueshirts are chasing down home-ice advantage throughout the playoffs and the President’s Trophy.

A big reason for New York’s success has been the offensive breakout from winger Alexis Lafreniere. The 2020 first overall selection has also been at his best down the stretch with nine goals, eight assists and 4.21 points per 60 minutes across his past 14 games.

Additionally, I value these Alexis Lafreniere odds because of his excellent chemistry with veteran linemates Vincent Trocheck and Artemi Panarin. The trio have been on the ice for 5.25 goals per 60 minutes with a 58.3 Corsi For percentage and 58.0 expected goals for percentage at 5-on-5, and Lafreniere also skates with New York’s No. 2 power-play unit.

Alexis Lafreniere prop: Over 0.5 points (-105 at Bet99)

Prop bet #3: Flame off

The Los Angeles Kings can clinch a postseason berth with a win over the Calgary Flames on Thursday, and the Flames have been a mess since the trade deadline with a 4-11 record and the sixth-fewest goals per game (2.47). Los Angeles has also surrendered the fewest 5-on-5 goals per 60 minutes (1.7) since the trade deadline and the fourth-fewest per game (2.58) for the year.

Additionally, the Kings sport a second-ranked 85.0 penalty-kill percentage, and they rank fourth with a 53.8 Corsi For percentage and 54.4 expected goals percentage at 5-on-5.

The Calgary blueline is incredibly inexperienced. If Oliver Kylington (upper body) can’t play, the Flames will have four defensemen with fewer than 70 games of NHL experience jumping the boards. It’s difficult to generate quality scoring chances if your defensemen can’t consistently move the puck up ice and/or you’re playing in your own end all night.

Calgary Flames prop: Under 2.5 goals (-120 at Bet99)