The Edmonton Oilers opened as sizable favorites to win this Round 2 series despite the Vancouver Canucks having home-ice advantage — and I've got NHL picks for the action.
Edmonton rolled the Los Angeles Kings in five games in the opening round, and the Oilers have superstar Connor McDavid leading the way as the betting favorite in the Conn Smythe odds. Meanwhile, Vancouver went through three netminders but took down the Preds in six.
Read below on how I think this series is going to shape up!
All odds courtesy of BET99.
Kings vs Oilers series odds
| Market | ||
|---|---|---|
 Oilers (-270) |
To win |  Canucks (+210) |
| Oilers -1.5 (-141) |
Handicap | Canucks +1.5 (+115) |
News the Vancouver Canucks will be without Thatcher Demko to start Round 2 is accounted for in these series odds, and the high-scoring Edmonton Oilers could make quick work of the Canucks if Vancouver continues to struggle offensively.
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Oilers vs Canucks series preview
Oilers statistical breakdown
| Regular Season | Post Trade Deadline | Round 1 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| CF% | 55.2 (3rd) | 54.1 (6th) | 42.7 (15th) |
| Adjusted CF% | 55.5 (3rd) | 55.0 (4th) | 45.0 (14th) |
| GF% | 55.8 (5th) | 60.2 (2nd) | 50.0 (8th) |
| xGF% | 57.1 (1st) | 55.8 (4th) | 47.9 (10th) |
| Adjusted xGF% | 57.3 (2nd) | 56.5 (4th) | 49.6 (10th) |
| Team SH% | 8.8 (14th) | 9.6 (10th) | 11.2 (1st) |
| Team SV% | .914 (13th) | .921 (9th) | .902 (13th) |
| PDO | 100.2 (15th) | 101.7 (8th) | 101.5 (4th) |
| PP% | 26.3 (4th) | 25.4 (9th) | 45 (1st) |
| PK% | 79.5 (15th) | 78.3 (14th) | 100 (1st) |
Edmonton was a statistical juggernaut during the regular season, and while the Oilers might not have had the same 5-on-5 success against the Kings in Round 1, they didn’t allow a shorthanded goal and scored nine times with the man advantage.
Additionally, the Oilers posted a 100.1 PDO at 5-on-5 when adjusted for score and venue, so there isn’t any glaring sign of negative regression ahead. I anticipate the Oil scoring fewer goals and their 11.2 team shooting percentage at 5-on-5 to drop, but No. 1 goalie Stuart Skinner is likely to improve on his .902 SV% at 5-on-5 after posting a .913 mark during the regular season.
Similarly, the special teams are unlikely to remain as dominant in Round 2, but I’m not expecting an astronomical drop-off on the power play. The Oilers were elite up a man during the regular season, too.
Canucks statistical breakdown
| Regular Season | Post Trade Deadline | Round 1 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| CF% | 51.5 (10th) | 52.9 (8th) | 52.4 (4th) |
| Adjusted CF% | 52.8 (7th) | 53.5 (8th) | 51.8 (4th) |
| GF% | 57.9 (2nd) | 55.9 (8th) | 53.3 (5th) |
| xGF% | 52.3 (8th) | 54.4 (5th) | 53.3 (5th) |
| Adjusted xGF% | 53.2 (7th) | 54.4 (7th) | 52.6% (4th) |
| Team SH% | 10.6 (1st) | 9.0 (14th) | 8.1 (7th) |
| Team SV% | .922 (6th) | .922 (8th) | .940 (2nd) |
| PDO | 102.8 (1st) | 101.2 (12th) | 102 (3th) |
| PP% | 22.7 (11th) | 22.5 (12th) | 15.4 (12th) |
| PK% | 79.1 (17th) | 79.6 (11th) | 90.9 (3rd) |
Even with the puck luck drying up as the season progressed, the Canucks still topped the league in team shooting percentage and PDO. Vancouver also continued to drive possession in Round 1 and checks out as an excellent 5-on-5 team across the board.
Still, it’s unlikely the Arturs Silovs-Casey DeSmith goaltending tandem can maintain a .940 SV% at 5-on-5, and the Canucks penalty-kill units are also facing a much tougher test in Round 2. Vancouver had middling success while shorthanded throughout the regular season, too.
All statistics are at five-on-five except power-play percentage and penalty-kill percentage.
Oilers vs Canucks series props
Kings vs Oilers correct score odds
| Team | Win 4-0 | Win 4-1 | Win 4-2 | Win 4-3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oilers |
+500 | +350 | +300 | +500 |
| Canucks |
+3000 | +1200 | +900 | +640 |
Pick: Oilers win series 4-2 (+300 at BET99)
The difference in winning and losing this time of year often comes down to goaltending, special teams, and star power. I'm giving Edmonton the edge in all three. Vancouver had its hands full with Nashville in Round 1, and now the Canucks face a deeper and more talented opponent.
Edmonton proved capable of winning in a variety of ways in Round 1 against Los Angeles, and I don’t anticipate Vancouver being able to keep up offensively over a seven-game series. I also don’t anticipate the series going the distance.
The Canucks will be able to limit the Oilers for stretches and potentially a game or two, but in doing so, Vancouver will also be sacrificing its ability to generate quality scoring chances. The Canucks averaged the fewest shots per game (20.2), third-fewest attempts (55.34), and high-danger scoring chances (9.81) per 60 minutes during Round 1, which reinforces the commitment to playing sound defense at the expense of creating offense.
Relying on timely scoring becomes all the more difficult when the quality scoring chances are few and far between.
Oilers vs Canucks series best bet
Pick: Oilers -1.5 series handicap (-141 at BET99)
There's no sugarcoating the Vancouver goaltending situation, and if Demko is able to return, he’ll be both rusty and jumping on a moving train. As noted, there’s already statistical correction ahead of Vancouver’s .940 5-on-5 team save percentage, and the Edmonton offense is both relentless and opportunistic.
I also expect Edmonton to have better 5-on-5 numbers in this series. Los Angeles topped Vancouver in CF% and xGF% during the regular season and when adjusted for score and venue.
Of course, the superstar factor is the icing on the cake. Vancouver might limit Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl for stretches and even games, but the Canucks are going to have to outscore them, and they don’t have the star power to do it.
