Monday's NHL slate features several exploitable matchups, from a potential offensive breakout in Utah to a Philadelphia Flyers offense that continues to struggle.
I expect the Toronto Maple Leafs to get back to their Over ways, the Flyers to fall flat offensively, and the Utah Mammoth's second line to find the score sheet.
Here are my top NHL predictions and best NHL picks for Monday, Oct. 19.
Today's top NHL predictions
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 / Sharks vs. Leafs o6.5 |
56% |
 Tyson Foerster + Trevor Zegras u0.5 points each |
35% |
 Logan Cooley + Dylan Guenther o0.5 points each |
46% |
Percentages courtesy of Novig, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Pick #1: Sharks vs. Leafs Over 6.5
This total will close at 7.
The Toronto Maple Leafs and San Jose Sharks are two poor defensive teams, ranking in the Bottom 7 in expected goals allowed/60 at all strengths.
Both clubs also surrender plenty of quality chances on the penalty kill, ranking in the Bottom 6 in 4-on-5 xGA/60. Add in two teams with save percentages in the bottom third of the league, and tonight could get raucous.
The Leafs were riding a five-game Over streak before Saturday's 4-1 loss to the Islanders snapped it. However, scoring on Ilya Sorokin is much different than facing Yaroslav Askarov, who has allowed 3+ goals in every start this season. If Askarov gets the nod, expect this total to move north quickly.
Likely Toronto starter Anthony Stolarz hasn't been much better, allowing nine goals over his last two games.
- Matchup: Sharks vs. Maple Leafs
- Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, Ontario
- TV: SN+
Pick #2: Tyson Foerster + Trevor Zegras Under 0.5 points
It's another day of fading the Philadelphia Flyers offense. Saturday's 3-1 win marked the first time Philadelphia scored 3+ goals in a game this season, and even that required an empty-netter. The Flyers rank dead last in expected goals for per 60 minutes at all strengths, while the Colorado Avalanche rank first in xGA/60.
This top-line Under stack at 35% is the better way to fade Philly's offense, with its team total Under 2.5 sitting at 55% and Under 1.5 at 32%. Trevor Zegras is averaging fewer than 20 minutes per game, which is low for a top-line and PP1 forward, and has recorded a point in just 40% of his games this season.
Tyson Foerster missed Sunday's practice after blocking a shot on Saturday but could still find his way into the lineup. If he doesn't, I'll happily ride Zegras Under 0.5 points solo at 52%. Foerster has just one goal in 10 games.
This Philly offense is beyond brutal.
- Matchup: Avalanche vs. Flyers
- Time: 7 p.m. ET
- Location: Xfinity Mobile Arena, Philadelphia, Pa.
- TV: NBC Sports Philadelphia
Pick #3: Logan Cooley + Dylan Guenther Over 0.5 points each
This is a great offensive matchup for the Utah Mammoth, with their top-six scoring offense facing the Pittsburgh Penguins, who rank 26th in both GAA and xGA/60.
Utah's implied team total is around 4.00 today, while Pittsburgh has allowed 5+ goals in each of its three games on its current road trip. In Pittsburgh's last five road games, the Penguins have allowed 24 goals, while projected starter Arturs Silovs has surrendered five goals in three of his last four starts.
Clayton Keller and Nick Schmaltz are the top-line options, but Logan Cooley and Dylan Guenther have hit their point combo in six of nine games. This is a combo I'd play to 53% in today's matchup and price at 2.15x in an average matchup, with this being an elite spot.
Utah is scoring tonight, and this line is finding the score sheet.
Quinn Allen is eyeing a Keller assist with his favorite NHL player props for tonight.
- Matchup: Penguins vs. Mammoth
- Time: 9 p.m. ET
- Location: Delta Center, Salt Lake City, Utah
- TV: SN+
- Top picks: 23-19, +10.8 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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