Penguins vs Capitals Prediction, Picks & Odds for Tonight’s NHL Game

Offseason moves have the Capitals looking great to start the season while the Pens continue to fade out of contention. Expect Washington to take care of business against its bitter rival.

Neil Parker - Analyst at Covers.com
Neil Parker • Betting Analyst
Nov 8, 2024 • 10:58 ET • 4 min read
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This article contains predictions for an old game!

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Connor McMichael Washington Capitals NHL
Photo By - Imagn Images. Pictured: Connor McMichael celebrates after scoring for the Washington Capitals.

The Washington Capitals host the Pittsburgh Penguins at Capital One Arena on Friday, November 8, and longtime rival superstars Alex Ovechkin and Sidney Crosby will go head-to-head again in their respective 20th tours through the NHL.

It was Pittsburgh and Crosby having all the fun for years, but it’s Ovechkin and Washington laughing loudest this season — and my Penguins vs. Capitals predictions expect the Caps to continue their early-season heater tonight.

Read all about it in the NHL picks below.

Penguins vs Capitals prediction

My best bet
Capitals in regulation (+100 at Pinnacle)

My analysis
There’s no statistical comparison between the Washington Capitals and Pittsburgh Penguins to start the 2024-25 season. Pittsburgh made peripheral moves during the offseason and never replaced winger Jake Guentzel after dealing him to the Carolina Hurricanes at last year’s trade deadline.

Add years of trading prospects and draft picks during their contending stretch, and the Pens have a top-heavy roster with veterans playing their twilight years. Their 5-8-2 start is a reflection of their roster.

It was just the opposite for the Caps. The Washington brass was active this summer to bolster the roster, and the immediate returns have been rewarding. The Capitals are off to a 9-3 start and rolling at Capital One with a 7-1 home-ice record.

With Pittsburgh playing the second leg of a back-to-back road set after being shellacked by the Carolina Hurricanes 5-1 on Thursday, I anticipate Washington improving to 8-1 at home with a convincing win tonight. 

After all, this is largely a statistical mismatch, with the Penguins only holding court on special teams and in 5-on-5 possession. And I expect statistical correction coming for the Washington power play after posting a middling 20.6 PP% last year.

Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins Capitals Washington Capitals
5-on-5 CF% 52.5 (ninth) 49.4 (18th)
5-on-5 xGF% 51.9 (10th) 55.8 (fourth)
Goals per game 2.8 (20th) 4.08 (fourth)
Goals against per game 3.8 (30th) 2.92 (eighth)
Power-play percentage 20.5% (14th) 9.3% (32nd)

It’s also notable the Pens drop to a 14th-ranked 51.4 CF% when adjusted for score and venue because they’ve spent the ninth-highest time (26:47) trailing per game in the league. Washington is 16th with a 51.0% mark, too.

Finally, I also value the Capitals having the superior goaltending with a .905 team SV% at 5-on-5 and .895 overall mark compared to the respective .888 and .882 ratios for the Pens.

Penguins vs Capitals same-game parlay (SGP)

Capitals in regulation

Connor McMichael Over 0.5 points

Connor McMichael Over 2.5 shots

It’s been a breakout stretch for Caps winger Connor McMichael to start the season, as he’s showing off the offensive skill that made him a first-round pick in the 2019 draft and a consistent scorer in both the OHL and AHL.

McMichael has marked the scoresheet in nine of 12 games and recorded three or more shots in six of 12, including four of his past five. He’s skating with the top PP unit, and McMichael has averaged 18:10 of ice time per night (3:15 with the man advantage) during the noted five-game stretch compared to 15:54 and 1:34 averages to start the year.

I also value McMichael ranking fourth in points per 60 (3.86) while pacing the Caps in shots (11.57) per 60. Plus, in addition to Pittsburgh allowing the third-most goals per game, it's also allowing a healthy 30.2 shots per contest.

The odds haven't fully caught up to McMichael's production yet.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Penguins vs Capitals odds

Penguins vs Capitals live odds

Penguins vs Capitals opening odds

  • Puck line: Pittsburgh +1.5 (-189) | Washington -1.5 (+147)
  • Moneyline: Pittsburgh +135 | Washington -160
  • Over/Under: Over 6 (-120) | Under 6 (+100)

Penguins vs Capitals trend

The Washington Capitals are 7-1 at Capital One Arena this season. Find more NHL betting trends for Penguins vs. Capitals.

How to watch Penguins vs Capitals

Location: Capital One Arena, Washington, D.C.
Date: Friday, 11-8-2024
Puck drop: 7:30 p.m. ET
TV: HULU

Penguins vs Capitals latest injuries

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Betting Analyst

Neil Parker is, first and foremost, a sports fan. A huge supporter of the Cowboys, Cubs, and Maple Leafs, he has managed to parlay his passion into writing gigs with Sportsbook Review, USA TODAY, theScore, DraftKings Playbook, and RotoWire, among many others. He also co-hosted the Daily Fantasy Edge podcast and can now be seen offering expert golf and hockey advice on Covers’ Before you Bet broadcast.

Neil takes a numbers-based approach to his handicapping and complements his in-depth statistical analysis with a keen eye on the markets to provide the best available odds. He loves to lean on his rolodex of idioms to offset his inner nerd. When it comes to wagering, he throws down on anything that catches his eye at bet365, Betway and BetVictor. He also keeps a close eye on CoolBet because the polar bear brand often has outlier NHL and NFL moneyline prices.

Neil graduated with honors from St. Thomas University in 2007 before completing his BEd at Acadia University in 2010. After teaching a myriad of courses and subjects, he found a groove delivering fun lessons to exceptional learners in non-traditional classroom environments. If his decade-plus teaching run taught him anything about sports betting, it’s to stay the course and use the summer – or offseason – to refresh and prepare to be better in the year to come.

Neil’s top pieces of advice for recreational bettors are to stay within your means and to remember sportsbooks aren’t bank accounts. Don’t be afraid to pull those winnings and treat yourself to a lifetime experience courtesy of a big win.

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