Provincial rivals will face each other for the sixth time this season as the Calgary Flames will take a three-game winning streak into a home tilt against the Edmonton Oilers, who have dropped five of their last nine.
Wednesday’s match will be the second of a two-game set that saw the Flames win 4-3 on Monday and push the season series to 3-2 in favor of the Oilers. Calgary opened as a slight favorite (-115) with the total sitting at 6.
Here are our free NHL betting picks and predictions for Oilers vs. Flames for Wednesday, March 17 at 10:00 p.m. ET.
Edmonton Oilers at Calgary Flames betting preview
Injuries
Oilers: Tyson Barrie D (Questionable), Jujhar Khaira F (Questionable), Kyle Turris F (Out).
Flames: Joakim Nordstrom F (Out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 7-1-2 in the Flames’ last 10 games following a win. Find more NHL betting trends for Oilers vs. Flames.
NHL sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonCalgary opened as a -118 favorite at TwinSpires, and despite more public play on Edmonton, the Flames are up to -130. The Oilers are taking 70 percent of bets and 63 percent of cash on the moneyline, but the Flames are seeing sharp action. The total opened at 6 (Over -115), and that price is now -124, with 75 percent of bets/58 percent of money on the Over.
Check out the full line movement for this gameMoneyline pick
This is a big midseason series for the Flames, who trail the third-place Oilers by five points with two games in hand. It's very possible that one of the Alberta teams doesn’t make the playoffs and the outcomes of these matchups will be a massive factor.
The Flames will be playing the last game of a five-game homestand that has seen the .500-team team go 3-1 SU and pick up seven of a possible eight points. Goalie Jacob Markstrom has started each of the team’s last five games after returning from injury and has enjoyed playing at home this season, going 7-4 SU with a 2.59 GAA compared to 2.82 GAA on the road.
Beating the Oilers means not getting beat by Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and Edmonton's strong powerplay. Luckily for the Flames, they have been the league’s best team at killing penalties this month with a 94 percent success rate. The only PP goal they've allowed over their last seven games was on Monday.
Calgary’s Mickael Backlund was given the role of limiting McDavid and the center shined, holding the Oilers superstar to a single assist while also chipping in two helpers. The Flames have continued to get offensive production out of first-liner Dillon Dube, who has seven points (4G,3A) over his last six games after chipping in a goal and an assist on Monday.
Guessing who the Oilers’ third-highest scorer is one of this year’s best trivia questions. The answer is, surprisingly, defenseman Tyson Barrie with 24 points in 31 games. Edmonton may not have the services of the offensive blueliner, as Barrie missed practice Tuesday and is considered day-to-day. He has 11 points on the power play and would certainly be missed on the man advantage.
Mike Smith will get the start in the crease for the Oilers on Wednesday. He gave up four goals on Monday and his GAA of 2.31 and SV% of .921 are due to head closer to league averages as the season progresses. He has career numbers of 2.81 GAA and .911 SV% over his eight years in the league, so his play this season seems somewhat of an outlier.
Edmonton will head to Winnipeg after Wednesday’s tilt for a matchup against the Jets on Thursday. It’s not a great spot to take the visiting team despite losing in the first game and being underdogs. We’re taking the home side for this one.
PREDICTION: Calgary (-115)
Over/Under pick
The Over is 3-2 in the season matchup but neither team has had great success with the Over in 2021.
Edmonton is 15-15 O/U on the year and 2-6 O/U in its last eight on the road. Smith has steadily kept the Oilers competitive all year as his goals against and save percentage numbers rank him in the Top 10 in the league.
The Oilers have averaged 5.75 total goals per game this month, a drastic improvement from January-February’s mark of 6.43. A big reason Edmonton is third place in the North Division is the improved play its gotten in net from Smith the play of Smith and its ability to keep pucks out of the net which is in sharp contrast to years before.
Calgary hasn’t scared a lot of opponents with its offense this year, as the Flames are a bottom-10 team in the league in goals per game at 2.79. They managed just 2.55 expected goals in Monday’s 4-3 win and have scored two or fewer goals in 14 of their 29 games. With the man advantage, Calgary is a bottom-half team and just 5-for-30 on the PP (16%) across its last 10 games.
The Flames showed they can slow down McDavid and their PK has been lights out of late. With both goalies having the potential to shut things down, especially in a big game, we are fading the public and hitting the Under in a big rivalry game.
PREDICTION: Under 6 (-105)
Oilers vs Flames betting card
- Calgary (-115)
- Under 6 (-105)
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