The Toronto Maple Leafs and Edmonton Oilers meet up for their second matchup in a three-game set on Monday night following a 4-0 Leafs win on Saturday.
These teams sit atop the North Division (albeit with the Oilers only one point ahead of the Jets with three games in hand) and NHL odds expect a close battle with this game opening as a pick'em.
Here are our best free Maple Leafs vs. Oilers picks and predictions for NHL betting action on Monday, March 1, with the puck dropping at 10 p.m. ET.
Toronto Maple Leafs at Edmonton Oilers betting preview
Injuries
Maple Leafs: Frederik Andersen G (Questionable), Auston Matthews C (Questionable), Wayne Simmonds RW (Out).
Oilers: Zack Kassian RW (Out), James Neal LW (Out), Oscar Klefbom D (Out), Slater Koekkoek D (Out), William Lagesson D (Out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 8-1 in the Maple Leafs' last nine games against teams with a winning record. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs. Oilers.
NHL sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonToronto opened a short -110 favorite to Edmonton's -106 at FanDuel, where the Maple Leafs reached -118 on three occasions. But as of 7 p.m. ET, the moneyline is a -108 pick 'em, with Toronto attracting 70 percent of bets and 64 percent of money. The total hasn't moved off 6.5, though the price adjusted from Over -138 down to -110 flat and is now Over -122, with 59 percent of tickets and money on the Under.
Check out the full line movement for this gameMoneyline pick
The Maple Leafs come rolling into this matchup having won five of their last six games. Toronto sits atop the North Division with a 16-4-2 record and is second in the league in scoring with 3.55 goals per game while ranking sixth in goals allowed with just 2.5 gpg.
That said, Edmonton might be in a good spot for a revenge game tonight. Prior to an embarrassing 4-0 loss on the weekend, the Oilers had won eight of their previous nine contests. Led by the league's leading scorer and Hart Trophy betting favorite Connor McDavid, the Oilers are fourth in the league with 3.43 gpg. It's also worth noting that despite getting crushed in that previous meeting, the Oilers actually generated 14 high-danger chances, compared to just six for the Leafs.
While the Leafs grabbed the victory on Saturday without their own Hart Trophy candidate in Auston Matthews and starting goalie Frederik Andersen, they will both be game-time decisions tonight and their possible absence is still a big loss.
It will be interesting to see who will get the start in nets for Edmonton between Mike Smith and Mikko Koskinen. Smith surrendered four goals on just 29 shots on Saturday but prior to that loss, the veteran had been red-hot, going 6-0 with a 1.73 goals-against average and a .944 save percentage in his first seven starts of the year.
This will be the third mini-series between these North Division foes this year and the previous two were split at one game apiece. If Smith can recapture his early-season form and the Oilers can capitalize on those chances they should be able to bounce back with a W at home.
PREDICTION: Edmonton ML (-105)
Over/Under pick
It's pretty tough to figure out the Over/Under for this contest until we have a better idea of who will be between the pipes for both teams.
Andersen practiced on Sunday but according to Toronto head coach Sheldon Keefe, it's not likely he'll suit up. That said, Maple Leafs backup netminders Jack Campbell and Michael Hutchinson have looked sharp recently, including Campbell coming off a 30-save shutout against Edmonton on Saturday.
As for Edmonton, if Smith gets the nod, his 2.04 GAA and .934 save percentage certainly look much better for Under bettors than Koskinen's 3.26 GAA and .901 SV%.
While both Edmonton and Toronto rank among the Top-4 teams in the league when it comes to scoring, they've actually been cashing the Under lately. The Under is 8-3 in the Buds' last 11 games, while going 7-3 in the Oilers' previous 10. With the total set at the high number of 6.5, we're going to lean with the recent betting trends and take the Under.
PREDICTION: Under 6.5 (-110)
Maple Leafs vs Oilers betting card
- Edmonton ML (-105)
- Under 6.5 (-110)
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