Lightning vs Panthers Predictions, Picks, and Odds for Today’s NHL Playoff Game

The Florida Panthers host the Tampa Bay Lightning at Amerant Bank Arena on Sunday afternoon for Game 1 of their first-round series. The Panthers are favorites on the NHL odds board both in the series and in this game.

The Panthers finished the season on a four-game winning streak and a 5-0-1 stretch to win the Atlantic Division. Meanwhile, the Lightning lost three of their final four games, although they didn’t exactly have much to play for.

Read on for our free NHL picks and Lightning vs. Panthers predictions for Game 1 on Sunday, April 21. 

Lightning vs Panthers prediction

My best bet
Nikita Kucherov Over 0.5 assists (-180 via Pinnacle)

My analysis
The Tampa Bay Lightning find themselves in an unfamiliar position as underdogs in the playoffs. They’re trying to prove they can still get it done in the postseason in the final years of their dynasty.

Their depth has taken a major hit over the years with key role players finding jobs with other teams, such as Ondrej Palat in New Jersey. They still have a great top line and solid top-six, but their blue line leaves much to be desired after Victor Hedman on the top pair.

That top line is led by Hart Trophy candidate Nikita Kucherov. He led the entire league in scoring with 144 points (44 goals) and tied with Connor McDavid for the lead with 100 assists. The Russian playmaker is still clicking well with Brayden Point as his center and trade-deadline addition Anthony Duclair has joined them on the left side.

Kucherov recorded an assist in 59 of 81 games (72.84%) in the regular season. That includes a helper in nine of his final 10 games and 26 of 32 games (81.25%) since the All-Star break.

The star forward had a goal in the first matchup against the Florida Panthers back in December, an assist in their February meeting, and one goal and one assist in March. He’s recorded an assist in five of seven games against the Bolts since the beginning of the 2022-23 season.

We’re paying some juice here for Kucherov to record an assist, but even -180 odds imply a 64.29% chance of happening. That’s well short of Kucherov’s hit rate this season (72.84%), especially since the All-Star break (81.25%)

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Lightning vs Panthers same-game parlay (SGP)

Nikita Kucherov Over 0.5 assists

Over 5.5

Panthers moneyline

+325 at bet365

While Kucherov should be able to help Tampa Bay get on the board, the Panthers’ depth will be what wins this game and likely the series. 

The Panthers had a goal differential of 22-7 during their 5-0-1 stretch to finish the season as they ramped up for the playoffs. On the flip side, the Lightning allowed four goals in each of their final three games, two of which were started by Andrei Vasilevskiy.

There should be a few goals on both sides but the Panthers should be the ones to come out on top.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Lightning vs Panthers odds

Lightning vs Panthers live odds

Lightning vs Panthers opening odds

• Puck line: Tampa Bay +1.5 (-167)  | Florida -1.5 (+130)
• Moneyline: Tampa Bay +135 | Florida -160
• Over/Under: Over 6 | Under 6

Lightning vs Panthers moneyline and Over/Under analysis

• The Panthers odds are favorites between -160 and -175 after opening at -162. 
  
  
• The Lightning odds are as high as +148 after opening at +136.
  
  
• The total opened at 6 but has moved down to 5.5 at most books. You can get Over 5.5 (-120) and Under 5.5 (+105).

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Lightning vs Panthers trend

The Panthers have cashed the moneyline in 64 of their last 101 games (+15.75 units / 10% ROI). Find more NHL betting trends for Lightning vs. Panthers.

Lightning vs Panthers game info

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