(Editor's Note: These picks were written and published before news came out Monday that both Frederik Andersen and Jacob Markstrom will miss tonight's game with injuries.)
It's a busy night for NHL betting on Monday, with eight games scheduled—including a tilt between the Calgary Flames and Toronto Maple Leafs.
The Leafs are coming off a 5-3 win while Calgary was embarrassed in its last game and will be looking for a bounce-back performance. This will mark the third time these two teams collide this season, with Toronto coming out on top via one-goal victories in each of the previous meetings.
Can Calgary figure out the Leafs and get back in the win column? Find out with our best free NHL picks and predictions for Flames vs. Leafs at 7 p.m. ET in Toronto.
Calgary Flames at Toronto Maple Leafs betting preview
Injuries
Flames: Sean Monahan C (Questionable), Derek Ryan C (Out).
Maple Leafs: Wayne Simmonds RW (Out), Jack Campbell G (Out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Calgary is 1-8 in its last nine games as an underdog. Find more NHL betting trends for Flames vs. Maple Leafs.
NHL sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonThe Maple Leafs opened -166 chalk at FanDuel on Sunday evening and stretched to -184 overnight, but by lunch hour today, the moneyline dialed down to -154, which is where it stands as of 4:30 p.m. ET. That said, Toronto is attracting practically all the early action, at 90 percent of bets and 92 percent of cash. The total opened 6.5 flat (-110 on Over/Under), and the price on the Under is now -125, with 63 percent of bets/76 percent of money on the Under.
Check out the full line movement for this gameMoneyline pick
Through the first month and change of the season, the Leafs have an NHL-best 30 points and the biggest division lead in the league. No team has scored more than them and they're first with a +21 goal differential. The Leafs have scored five or more goals in three of their last four games, led by superstar Auston Matthews' 18 tallies, which is easily pacing the league. This is bad news for a reeling Flames team that has already lost twice to Toronto this season.
Calgary was dismantled in the latest Battle of Alberta, hitting its low point of the season by getting slaughtered 7-1 in Edmonton on Saturday. The loss was the Flames' third in a row and they were outscored 14-3 in those defeats.
Flames No. 1 netminder Jacob Markstrom was lit up for five goals in two of those games, while backup David Rittich sports an .874 save percentage. Regardless of who gets the nod in net, a Leafs team that has lost only three times in regulation through 19 games will be a difficult assignment.
The Leafs at home don't present the greatest value, but there's no way the Flames can be counted on in this one as a road underdog.
PREDICTION: Leafs (-162)
Over/Under pick
The Leafs are averaging an NHL-best 3.79 goals per game, led by Matthews' dominant surge that has seen the 23-year-old score in 15 of 18 games and record multi-goal efforts in three of his last four. Matthews and teammate Mitch Marner (nine goals and a team-leading 30 points) are good bets to get on the scoresheet any game they play and have helped Toronto amass the No. 1 powerplay in the NHL.
But the league's most potent offense is only 9-9 O/U on the season because it has done a good job keeping opponents off the board behind netminder Frederik Andersen. The Leafs are allowing 2.68 goals per game, well below the league-average mark, proving their lethal lineup alone can't push the Over as much as you might expect from a top-tier offense.
The Flames, meanwhile, are scoring 2.56 goals per game, a number that's being dragged down by the team's inability to score in prime situations. Calgary ranks dead last in the league in converting its high-danger scoring chances into goals (the Leafs are eighth) and is slightly below average on the man advantage. These are major reasons why the Flames are struggling to find the back of the net, having scored more than two goals in just two of their last 10 games.
It's easy to see the Leafs lighting up Calgary while also keeping them in check offensively like many opponents have done this season. But while that might help on the moneyline, it doesn't guarantee anything when it comes to the Over/Under. A 5-1 Leafs win tonight, for example, would cash the Under. Bank on Matthews and Marner to continue their assault on the Canadian division, but don't expect it to come via a back-and-forth shootout with the Flames' scuffling offense.
The Under is 7-2-1 in the last 10 head-to-head meetings between Toronto and Calgary. Look for that trend to carry on.
PREDICTION: Under 6.5 (-115)
Flames vs Maple Leafs betting card
- Leafs (-162)
- Under 6.5 (-115)
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