The Washington Capitals and the Pittsburgh Penguins will renew their rivalry at PPG Paints Arena on Saturday evening.
The two Metropolitan Division foes skate in their third and final regular season meeting tonight. The Penguins took the first game back on November 9 by a score of 4-1, before the Capitals evened the score with a 3-2 shootout triumph on January 26.
Who will come out on top tonight? Find out in our free NHL picks and predictions for Capitals vs. Penguins on March 25.
Capitals vs Penguins best odds
Capitals vs Penguins picks and predictions
Neither the Capitals nor the Penguins enter this tilt in good form. Washington has dropped six of its last nine games straight-up, while Pittsburgh has lost five of its last six.
The two teams have contrasted starkly when it comes to Over/Under results. The Caps have played to the Over seven times in a row, while Under bettors have cashed in six of the last eight games involving the Pens.
Lately, the Penguins’ Sidney Crosby-led offense seems like a sleeping giant, while the Capitals’ goaltending has left lots to be desired of late.
Though I have several leans in this one, my best bet is to take the Caps to eclipse three goals tonight. Not every book offers the line of 3.0, so make sure to shop around and look for the best deal.
Washington has scored six goals in back-to-back games and 30 total goals over its last seven contests (4.29 per game). The incomparable Alex Ovechkin also rides a six-game point-scoring streak into this one, with five goals and five assists under his belt.
Dylan Strome has also collected points in 11 of his last 13 games, notching five goals and 13 assists during that span. Also playing with a hot stick of late is Nicklas Backstrom, who has two goals and three assists in his last five overall.
Pens’ starting goalie Tristan Jarry is listed as day-to-day with a lower-body injury and was unable to back up Casey DeSmith on Thursday. Jarry’s play in March has left much to be desired anyway, as he sports a 4.04 GAA and a .861 SV% over nine starts.
DeSmith's 3.11 GAA and .905 SV% on the year is far from imposing. Regardless, no matter who the Capitals are firing pucks at tonight, it seems like they’re in line for another fine day on offense.
Take a look at the Over 3.5 on their team total as well, which hovers as high as +175 as of this writing.
My best bet: Capitals team total Over 3.0 (+118 at Unibet)
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Capitals vs Penguins moneyline analysis
The Penguins opened as -138 consensus favorites, and the line has since been bet up to the -145 range. The line seems a little steep to this handicapper, making Capitals +125 tempting enough to recommend sprinkling something on.
The visiting team is 4-1 in the last five meetings between these two clubs, and the Caps’ game does not fall off much when they take their show on the road. Washington goes from 31.5 shots per game overall to 31.1 away from D.C., while their goals per game remain flat at 3.2.
The Capitals could break this game open on the power play, as they have cashed in on seven of their last 16 man-advantage opportunities (43.8%). Meanwhile, the Penguins have allowed a power play marker in four straight contests (66.7% penalty kill rate).
The moneyline wager on the Caps makes the most sense if you think they’re going to be held to three goals or fewer. The Pens have also been held to two goals or fewer in four of their last five overall.
Capitals vs Penguins Over/Under analysis
The total for this game is hanging at 6.5, virtually unmoved since NHL odds opened, with no onerous juice on either side. The key to getting this game Over the total tonight is the Penguins’ offense, which has faltered mightily of late.
As I outlined above, the Capitals look poised to take advantage of Pittsburgh’s shaky goaltending situation, which includes their recent shortcomings on the penalty kill. The Penguins tend to play a wide-open style regardless of location, firing the fifth-most pucks on net (34.5) while surrendering the seventh-most shots (33.1).
Gasoline gets thrown on that fire on home ice for the Pens, as they tally 36.6 shots on net while coughing up 33.8 shots per game. While their 3.2 goals allowed per game figure remains steady, the Penguins jump from 3.2 goals per game overall to 3.5 per contest as hosts.
While Crosby (goals in two straight) and Jake Guentzel (a goal and two assists in the last two games) appear re-energized after some mid-March doldrums, Evgeni Malkin (two assists in the last five matches) could stand to contribute more if the Pens want to make the postseason.
Whether it's Darcy Kuemper (four goals allowed in two of his last three) or Charlie Lindgren (5.23 GAA, .849 SV% in March) at the other end of the ice, the Penguins have an enticing target to aim at. Trend bettors should note that the Over is 13-5 in the last 18 meetings between these two teams, with an 8-1 mark across the last nine meetings in Pittsburgh.
Capitals vs Penguins betting trend to know
The Penguins are 3-12 in their last 15 games against Metropolitan Division teams. Find more NHL betting trends for Capitals vs Penguins.
Capitals vs Penguins game info
| Location: | PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh, PA |
| Date: | Saturday, March 25, 2023 |
| Puck drop: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ABC |
