Nathan MacKinnon scored seven goals over his first nine playoff games but has yet to open his account in the conference finals.
My Avalanche vs. Golden Knights goal scorer predictions expect that to change, with MacKinnon headlining the list.
Let's take a closer look at my NHL picks for Sunday, May 24.
Avalanche vs Golden Knights goal scorer predictions for Game 3
| Player to score a goal | Odds |
|---|---|
 Nathan MacKinnon |
+105 |
| Brock Nelson |
+335 |
 Tomas Hertl |
+350 |
| 💲Goal scorer parlay: Nathan MacKinnon, Brock Nelson, Tomas Hertl | +2000 |
Goal scorer pick: Nathan MacKinnon (+105)
I'm backing Nathan MacKinnon to have a strong volume game, and his shot output correlates strongly with his goal scoring. MacKinnon found the back of the net in 62% of his games when attempting seven shots or more this season, and he has attempted at least seven shots in five of his last six.
Focusing specifically on this matchup, MacKinnon has generated 45 shot attempts over five games against the Vegas Golden Knights this year — including 11- and nine-attempt performances while John Tortorella was behind the bench.
The Colorado Avalanche desperately need a win and will rely heavily on MacKinnon to lead the charge. That means a ton of offensive zone starts and extra ice time for the Rocket Richard winner. Bet him to find the net up to -111.
Goal scorer pick: Brock Nelson (+335)
Brock Nelson has scored just twice in the playoffs despite creating 24 scoring chances and 4.03 expected goals.
That is highly abnormal, as Nelson has scored more goals than expected in 11 consecutive years.
He is a consistently excellent finisher, and I want to buy the dip. Even with this cold stretch, Nelson has found the back of the net in 32% of all games this year. A +335 price tag implies a 23% chance of scoring.
I think the fair price is somewhere in the middle, and would back Nelson up to +270.
Goal scorer pick: Tomas Hertl (+350)
Tomas Hertl is not playing a lot at 5-on-5, but he's getting a steady dose of offensive zone starts, which helps him maximize his minutes.
Nobody on the Golden Knights has recorded more shot attempts, scoring chances, high-danger chances, or created more rebounds than Hertl in this series.
He is also skating on a talented top power-play unit, playing a net-front role and looking to pounce on loose pucks sprayed to the net.
Hertl's a big threat to an Avalanche team that hasn't gotten high-danger saves consistently since the first round. I'd back him to +310.
Avalanche vs Golden Knights anytime goal scorer parlay (+2000)
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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