After the Colorado Avalanche handled business at home, taking both games at Ball Arena to begin their series against the St. Louis Blues, their first round matchup will shift to the home of the 2019 Stanley Cup champions for games three and four. St. Louis will be desperate for a win to avoid a 3-0 hole, while Colorado can get an even stronger hold on the series with a win.
Here our best free NHL betting picks and predictions for Avalanche vs. Blues on May 21 at 9:30 p.m. ET.
Avalanche vs Blues game info
• Location: Enterprise Arena, St. Louis, MO
• Date: Friday, May 21, 2021
• Time: 9:30 p.m. ET
• TV: SN 360, TVAS, BSMW, ALT
Avalanche vs Blues odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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NHL Sharp Money and Line Movement Report
By Patrick EversonOnce again, Colorado is a hefty favorite at TwinSpires Sportsbook, opening -220 and moving out to -250 as of 6:30 p.m. ET. The moneyline action isn't as lopsided as that move would indicate, though, with the Avalanche drawing 54 percent of bets and 66 percent of cash. The total of 5.5 is seeing 68 percent of bets/59 percent of money on the Over.
Check out the full line movement for this gameAvalanche vs Blues series odds
Avalanche: -5,405
Blues: +1,100
Avalanche vs Blues betting preview
Injuries
Avalanche: Nazem Kadri C (Questionable), Erik Johnson D (Out), Matt Calvert LW (Out), Conor Timmins D (Questionable), Logon O'Connor RW (Out), Bowen Byram D (Questionable), Pavel Francouz G (Out).
Blues: Robert Burtuzzo D (Questionable), Justin Faulk D (Questionable), Nathan Walker LW (Out), David Perron LW (Out), Jake Walman D (Out), Vince Dunn D (Out), Oscar Sundqvist C (Out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 4-0 in the Avalanche's last four games as a road favorite. Find more NHL betting trends for Avalanche vs. Blues.
Puckline pick
The Avalanche dominated game one of this series, more than doubling the Blues' shots at 50-23 in a 5-3 win. While game two's final scoreline of 6-3 suggests an even more academic Colorado win, that wasn't the case. A match penalty handed down to Nazem Kadri for a hit to the head of Justin Faulk gave St. Louis a five-minute power play, during which it pulled one back to make it 3-2.
However, from there, Playoff Nate MacKinnon took over, with the Avs' superstar adding two goals in the final 5:35 to complete a hat trick and give him seven points in two games. For the second straight game, it wasn't just MacKinnon dominating but Colorado's entire top line, with Gabriel Landeskog and Mikko Rantanen combining for four points themselves, to match their centerman.
Crucially, not only are the Avs' top line dominating the series, but their matchup against the Blues' line led by Ryan O'Reilly. Colorado opened the scoring in game two within a minute, with Landeskog knocking O'Reilly to the ice behind the Blues' net to start the sequence. What is supposed to be one of the league's most effective two-way lines has been a massive liability for the Blues in the series, with O'Reilly a team-worst -6, while Brayden Schenn isn't far behind at -4.
Colorado has cruised to a 2-0 series lead on the back of excellent play from its stars, yet it still feels like it has another level to go up. Despite that, the Avs lead the playoffs in goal differential and expected goal differential, with two-way dominance in the regular season seamlessly carrying over. Colorado has covered the puckline in both games to begin the series and will do it again in game three.
PREDICTION: Avalanche -1.5 (+130)
Over/Under pick
After a phenomenal game one performance, Blues goalie Jordan Binnington wasn't as solid in game two, allowing four goals on 33 shots. The havoc caused by Landeskog and Rantanen around the crease for the Avs' top line has gotten to Binnington, with several low, driven shots from a distance making it through traffic and into the back of the net. The weak goals shipped by Binnington this series have seen the Avs net 10 times, despite just 7.56 expected goals — easily the most goals above expectation among playoff teams.
While the Avs have thrown as much at Binnington as the goalie can handle, St. Louis has rarely threatened Vezina candidate Philipp Grubeauer and a Colorado defense that allowed the fewest shots per game in the NHL during the regular season. Through two games, St. Louis has just three high- and 10 medium-danger shots. However, despite the Blues' lack of success, they may actually be outproducing their level of play, as they have a positive goals for above expectation for the series (0.18).
Despite the Blues' inability to skate with the Avs' star trio, the underlying numbers would suggest some positive regression could be on the way for St. Louis on the defensive end. Plus, with Binnington between the pipes, a game-stealing performance is always possible in the postseason. With Colorado typically a safe bet to keep its opponent's score on the low end and the Blues returning home as a desperate team, this one will finish Under.
PREDICTION: Under 5.5 (-105)
Avalanche vs Blues betting card
- Avalanche -1.5 (+130)
- Under 5.5 (-105)
Picks made on 5/20/2021 at 7:20 p.m. ET
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