The heavy-favorite Edmonton Oilers are coming off a disappointing 4-1 loss to the Winnipeg Jets Wednesday in Game 1 of their best-of-seven. On Friday, Connor McDavid and Co. will look to split the series with a win on home ice.
The Jets took the opener thanks to a pair of goals from their fourth line in what can only be described as the sleepiest Game 1 in the First Round. The Oilers won the metric battle but still trail the race to four wins, 1-0.
Here are our free picks and predictions for Winnipeg Jets vs Edmonton Oilers for Friday, May 21 (9:00 p.m. ET).
Jets vs Oilers game info
• Location: Rogers Place, Edmonton, AB
• Date: Friday, May 21, 2021
• Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
• TV: NBC Sports Network
Jets vs Oilers odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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NHL Sharp Money and Line Movement Report
By Patrick EversonEdmonton is out to a -180 favorite at TwinSpires Sportsbook, from an opening moneyline of -150. The Jets are taking 56 percent of bets, but the Oilers are drawing 72 percent of cash. The total is stable at 5.5, with the Over seeing 71 percent of bets/55 percent of money.
Check out the full line movement for this gameJets vs Oilers series odds
Jets: -125
Oilers: +105
Jets vs Oilers betting preview
Injuries
Jets: Pierre-Luc Dubois F (questionable), Nikolaj Ehlers F (questionable), Bryan Little F (out).
Oilers: Kris Russel D (doubtful).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 9-2-1 in the Jets’ last 12 games playing on one day’s rest. Find more NHL betting trends for Jets vs. Oilers.
Moneyline pick
The Jets played the underdog playbook to perfection on Wednesday in their 4-1 win over the Oilers at +130. They kept things tight and got the late go-ahead goal. Metrics-wise, they were outplayed, but when you hold Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl to the fifth- and fourth-highest 5-on-5 xgoals on the team (per Money Puck), you’re doing something right.
The one thing that stood out from Game 1 was the lack of intensity and physical presence. Winnipeg may have agitated McDavid, but Wednesday’s game looked like anything but a playoff match. Maybe all the time off was a factor, but we’d expect the better team to answer back and come out with a much better performance.
Edmonton finished fifth in the league in hits per game and will need to dig into those characteristics for Game 2 especially with the Jets possibly missing Pierre-Luc Dubois and Nikolaj Ehlers again Friday.
The biggest factor in Game 2 will be the play of Winnipeg netminder Connor Hellebuyck. The reigning Vezina winner was terrible against the Oilers all year (2-5 SU, 3.96 GAA and a .877 save percentage) but finished Wednesday with over two goals saved above expected.
Edmonton also generated 16 quality chances (medium- and high-danger) compared to the Jets’ offense that managed just six.
Winnipeg put some doubt into the heads of the Oilers, but the win was anything but convincing and a game that Edmonton wins more times than not. Every Winnipeg line lost the Corsi% battle, meaning they allowed more shot attempts than they generated. Giving up goals to Winnipeg's bottom-six forwards is not something we should expect Friday, as well.
McDavid averaged over two points per game against the Jets during the regular season and the 2021 Art Ross winner should put forth a better performance in Game 2. Some teams played CMD well, well the Jets did not, and Wednesday is looking like a one-off more than a trend.
PREDICTION: Edmonton 3-way ML +105
Over/Under pick
The Over never had a chance on Wednesday after a scoreless first and one minor penalty called all game. The lack of power plays was concerning and is a big red flag for Friday’s Over. With neither team matching the intensity of other playoff series, we wouldn’t expect too many more penalties called in Game 2.
When Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Jesse Puljujarvi and Jujhar Khaira all have higher expected goals than McDavid and Draisaitl, you know the Over is in trouble. The Oils’ top dogs should find their way, but Winnipeg’s top forwards also pulled a no-show on Wednesday.
The Connor-Scheifele-Wheeler line for Winnipeg needed to step up without Ehlers and Dubois and failed to do so, even in victory. They finished the game with a -0.43 on-ice xgoal difference, per Money Puck and finished -1 on the night.
Both goalies started the series on the right foot, and that’s something we could easily expect going forward. Hellebuyck looks bad in his losses but is the best player on his team and could frustrate the Edmonton offense throughout this series.
Edmonton’s Mike Smith allowed just two goals in Game 1 and only saw 20 shots on net (one high-danger chance). The Winnipeg offense failed to even get a single power play and didn’t threaten all game.
We’re hoping the lack of intensity leads to another sub-six game and feel the Under price will be better closer to puck drop.
PREDICTION: Under 5.5 (-105)
Jets vs Oilers betting card
- Edmonton 3-way ML +105
- Under 5.5 (-105)
Picks made on 5/21/2021 at 4:55 a.m. ET
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