Week 4 of the NFL season is upon us, and just like the first few weeks of the season, we saw a dominant league-wide trend in Week 3 as Unders hit in 11 of the 16 games.
As we know, these things tend to even out as the season grows, but it’s still worth keeping tabs on for those of us who live and breathe every second of NFL action from the preseason right to the Super Bowl. For the season, one standout trend to keep your eye on has been NFL odds road underdogs covering in 58.62% of games.
If you’re new to this article, these are my favorite NFL betting trends for every single game this week. I recommend never backing trends blindly – simply use them as a starting point for your handicap before making your NFL picks and predictions.
Now then, let's get into the trends.
Best NFL Week 1 betting trends
Lions vs Packers
The trend: The Lions are 10-0 ATS in their last 10 divisional matchups.
This is one hell of a run vs. NFC North rivals, and the Lions also have some great momentum going vs. the Packers. They’re 10-2 ATS in the last 12 head-to-heads vs. Green Bay while they’ve picked up three straight outright wins. The Lions are on a nice roll in general as they come into this game on a stretch that’s seen them go 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games.
Falcons vs Jaguars
The trend: The Falcons have gone Under in five straight road games.
Not an impressive streak by any means, but this trend is gaining some steam. Atlanta’s offensive incompetence was on full display in Week 3 when they scored just six points against a Lions team that allowed 37 the week before. That game in Detroit was their first one of the season outside of Atlanta and continued a low scoring pattern in road games as they averaged just 17.6 PPG on the road last season – 7.3 points fewer than at home. This could be a good pairing for a low-scoring game in jolly old England!
Broncos vs Bears
The trend: The Bears have gone Over in 11 of their last 14 games.
I’m surprised that this game will actually be broadcast on television, but we potentially have a nice betting opportunity here. The Broncos are on a nice Over run of their own, with it hitting in seven of their last eight games with five of these games having 51 or more points. It’s now or never for these offenses as the defenses for these teams rank in the bottom three in yards per play allowed, points allowed, and red zone defense.
Ravens vs Browns
The trend: The Ravens are 19-3-1 ATS in their last 23 games as an underdog.
I’ll go back to the well on this monster after playing it in Week 2 vs the Bengals. A few other trends also support the Ravens as they’ve gone 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games in Cleveland, while the Browns are 1-7 ATS after a win since the start of last season. Half of the games during the 1-7 slide were with Deshaun Watson as the starter. In those games, the Browns scored 10, 10, 14, and 22 points with each game also resulting in an outright loss.
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Dolphins vs Bills
The trend: 15 of the last 21 Bills’ games have gone Over the 1st quarter total.
This game has a 1st quarter total of 10.5, which is the highest of the week, but there’s lots of ammo to support this trend continuing. Unsurprisingly, Miami ranks third in the NFL in 1st quarter points in 8.0 per game, while the Bills have scored 17 total 1st quarter points in their last two games. It should also be noted that these defenses finished 31st and 26th in 1st quarter points allowed last season.
Vikings vs Panthers
The trend: Seven of the Panthers’ last 11 games failed to cross 40 points.
No sexy trends really stood out for this ugly game, but with a total of 46 for this matchup, this trend is worth considering. This Panthers offense is one of the worst in the league, while the Vikings saw a scoring drop-off of around four points per game on the road last season.
Steelers vs Texans
The trend: The Texans are 1-15-1 SU in their last 17 home games.
Imagine being a Texans’ season ticket holder. Houston does have some rare momentum coming into this game, as they just laid the smackdown on the Jaguars, but they’ve also gone 22 games without having consecutive wins. It’s not sexy, but the Steelers can be had on the moneyline in the -160 range.
Rams vs Colts
The trend: The Rams are 21-13-4 ATS after a loss since 2017.
Guess what happened to the Rams in 2017? Sean McVay became the head coach! A 61.8 cover percentage in this spot is the second-best in the NFL in this time period. With the Rams as a short underdog vs. the Colts and coming off a close road loss where they won the yards-per-play battle, this could be a great spot to back them.
See all Rams vs Colts trends for Week 4.
Bengals vs Titans
The trend: The Titans have gone Under the 4Q total in 18 of their last 20 games.
This is an under-the-radar monster that’s hit in two of Tennessee’s three games so far this season and we could have a nice pairing here with the suddenly offensively-challenged Bengals. It’s only been three games, but these teams rank 26th and 27th in 4th quarter scoring.
Buccaneers vs Saints
The trend: The Saints have gone Under in 12 of their last 13 games.
I’ll say it again – if it’s not broke don’t fix it. I’ll happily go back to the well on this one with the Saints continuing to play in low-scoring games. They’ve seen an average combined score of just 33.3 in their three games this season while nine of the games in this trend have failed to cross 33 points. In two matchups last season, these teams combined for 33 and 30 points. This game has the lowest total of the week at 39 points, but it might not be low enough.
Commanders vs Eagles
The trend: The Eagles have scored first in 19 of their last 23 games
If it’s not broke, don’t fix it. This has hit in every game so far this season and if the -174 odds for the Eagles to score first don’t appeal to you, consider taking them on the 1st quarter spread. The Commanders have been getting off to awful starts as they’ve been outscored 24-3 in the 1st quarter in their last two games. They truly are an embarrassment.
Raiders vs Chargers
The trend: 18 of the last 23 games between these teams with the Raiders as the visitor have gone Under.
This one needed to be worded kinda funny because it goes way back to the year 2000 and most of these games were played in San Diego. If you’re thinking “trends that go back that far have no impact on this game,” you are 100% correct. Trends like this are coincidental for the most part, but still interesting. I wouldn’t place a bet on Chargers vs. Raiders based entirely on this trend, but I’ll be rooting for the defenses on Sunday.
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Cardinals vs 49ers
The trend: The 49ers have won 11 of their last 16 home games by 15 or more points.
This trend seems especially relevant given that this game has a 14-point spread, which is the biggest spread of the week. During this 16-game home tear, the 49ers are 14-2 ATS. The 49ers obliterated the Cardinals in both matchups last season, winning by 25 and 28 points.
Patriots vs Cowboys
The trend: The Cowboys are 9-1 ATS after a loss since the start of the 2021 season.
You can make all the wisecracks you want about the Cowboys – there’s plenty of material there – but no one can knock their ability to bounce back. This trend includes going 5-0 ATS last season with an outright win as a 7-point underdog vs. the Bengals with Cooper Rush starting, an 18-point win over Detroit, a 37-point win in Minnesota, and a 17-point playoff win in Tampa Bay.
Chiefs vs Jets
The trend: The Jets have gone Under in seven of their last eight games.
Zach Wilson equals Unders – it’s as simple as that. The Jets offense has generated three touchdowns in three games and still hasn’t come close to scoring 20 points in a game this season. Poor Zach Wilson has now played in nine straight games that failed to cross 40 points. This is mainly due to their incompetent offense and strong defense. With both defenses playing well this season, don’t expect much activity on the scoreboard on Sunday night.
Seahawks vs Giants
The trend: The Under is 16-4-2 in the Giants’ last 22 home games.
The total for the Monday Nighter has been bet up to 47 as of the time of the writing, which seems a little high. Of course, the Seahawks are coming off consecutive games that crossed 60 points, but the Giants have games of ZERO and 12 points scored this season. It’s worth noting that these teams met a little over a year ago in Seattle where they both struggled to move the ball and combined for 40 points.
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