NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 15: AJ Delivers a Payday

Baltimore can't stop the run, and AJ Dillon's been seeing the lion's share of backfield touches for Green Bay. See why he's targeted both by the Packers and our Week 15 NFL player prop picks as we roll out a new batch of props for Saturday.

Last Updated: Dec 18, 2021 3:46 PM ET Read Time: 5 min
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The NFL season is in the home stretch and with it comes a ton of opportunistic prop markets. We’re looking into every market to uncover some of the week’s best side, team, player, and derivative prop bets. We do the heavy lifting so you don’t have to!

We’re adding three more rushing props to the Week 15 card as well as a longshot fringe tight end touchdown prop. It's a mess out there, but we're trying to make sense of it.

Latest NFL prop picks

  • Allen Under 31.5 rushing yards (-115)
  • Okwuegbunam anytime TD 0.5 units (+600)
  • Dillon Over 55.5 rushing yards (-115)
  • Foreman Over 52.5 rushing yards (-110)

Check out full analysis of picks below, or click here to view the full betting card.

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NFL prop picks for Saturday

One-Footed Race

Josh Allen was a full participant at practice Friday and will suit up Sunday against the Panthers.The Bills come into Sunday’s home battle as big 12.5-point favorites, and getting Allen out of that game healthy is likely priority No. 1 for Sean McDermott. Allen is dealing with a left foot sprain and a mild case of turf toe. 

The Bills should grab the victory easily versus a Carolina team that is suffering from some of the worst quarterback play in the league. Allen won’t have to do too much, and that likely means staying in the pocket, making easy passes and leaving the running to a backfield that could use this game to get the rushing attack off the ground.

Allen has rushed 36 times over his last three games, but coming into Week 12, the Buffalo quarterback was averaging just 6.1 carries per game for 34 yards in Weeks 1 through 11. 

On one bad foot in a game that could possibly see him get some rest if things get one-sided, we’re taking the Under on 31.5 yards. Carolina’s defense ranks in the Top 10 in QB rushing yards against at 14 yards per game. This market is starting to fall to the Under.

PREDICTION: Josh Allen Under 31.5 rushing yards (-115 at bet365)

Making a Push 

Denver tight end Albert Okwuegbunam saw a season-high 38 snaps last week. The athletic TE caught all of his five targets for 41 yards and a score. The catches were a season high as well and the score was his first since Week 1. 

No. 1 tight end Noah Fant finished with four catches on four targets on 12 more snaps than Albert O. Okwuegbunam also saw the only red-zone target between the two TEs last week and gained 29 of his 41 yards after the catch. 

Fant has been losing snaps to Okwuegbunam and left briefly last week with a leg injury before returning in the third quarter and catching just a single pass in the second half.

Like most fringe TEs, Albert O’s props are non-existent, except his TD market which bet365 is pricing at +600 while FanDuel is at +340 with the rest of the market. 

This is only a play due to pricing, and if it's unavailable at +600, we’d be looking to find his receiving yard market, which would likely open on Sunday. Look for a total of 17-20 yards and hit the Over. 

PREDICTION: Albert Okwuegbunam anytime TD 0.5 units (+600 at bet365)

The Top Dog 

Aaron Jones has been removed from the Packers’ injury report and will suit up on Sunday. That means the Green Bay timeshare will be back intact Sunday versus the Ravens, but that shouldn’t bother AJ Dillon backers, as the former second-round running back has started to dominate the rush share.

Jones and Dillon split backfield snaps down the middle again last week, but it was Dillon who received 15 of the team’s 20 running-back rushes, which he turned into 71 yards and a score. Since Jones returned from injury in Week 12, Dillon has 35 rushes to Jones’ 15. Dillon is clearly the preferred ball carrier, but the books are still giving us rushing totals that suggest a more 50/50 situation.

Dillon’s rushing total sits at 55.5 yards (trending upwards), which is the same number it closed at last week. He’s topped 50 yards in five of his last six games and is 5-1 to the Over on his rushing total over that stretch.

Baltimore ranks No. 1 in rushing yards allowed per game, but with a rush EPA that sits outside the Top 10 on first downs, there are ways to run against this team. Calais Campbell is also questionable, and his absence would be a big blow to the Ravens as he ranks as the eighth-best defensive linemen against the run. 

The last balanced offense Baltimore saw was Minnesota, where Dalvin Cook ran for 110 yards on 17 carries. 

With Lamar Jackson still questionable and Green Bay sitting as a touchdown favorite, the run game might get even more work Sunday afternoon.

PREDICTION: AJ Dillon Over 55.5 rushing yards (-115 at bet365)

Foreman Buffett

The Pittsburgh Steelers put on one of the worst defensive displays in the first half of their game versus the Vikings in Week 14. Dalvin Cook finished with 212 total yards in what was his first game back from an injury. The Steelers are one of the league’s worst tackling teams and have the fourth-most missed tackles per game. They sit 28th in defensive rush EPA and 30th in the same metric on third downs. 

TJ Watt will likely suit up, but looks to be at less than 100 percent. He has already exited two games this season without returning to the field. Only three other teams in the league allow more RB rushing yards per game than Mike Tomlin’s defense.

Enter Tennessee’s D’Onta Foreman, who has 32 of the team’s carries over the last two games with a 100-yard game in Week 12 vs. the Patriots’ Top-10 run defense.

Foreman’s rushing total sits at 52.5 yards this week and could get topped with as few as 11 carries, as the Steelers allow the most yards per rush attempt in football at 5.00 ypc. 

With a low spread and sub-44 total, this could be a low-scoring, tight game that should see plenty of running with A.J. Brown out and Julio Jones struggling to do anything with his limited time on the field.  

Foreman ran ahead of Tennessee’s other two running backs last week and is the top dog in this RBBC. 

PREDICTION: D’Onta Foreman Over 52.5 rushing yards (-110 at bet365)

NFL prop picks for Friday

Hopping on Robinson

Jacksonville’s James Robinson will be out of Urban Meyer jail Sunday as the departure of his former coach could mean a big workload versus Houston’s bottom-feeding defense.

From new interim coach and offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell: “James Robinson is our starting running back and he will be played as such.” If Bevell is getting behind the poorly used back, so are we. Robinson will have some fresh legs after being an afterthought in Meyers’ offensive plans and with fellow RB Carlos Hyde being ruled out, Robinson should be the focal point of the offense.

The change at coach is a positive thing for Robinson who has one of the best RB matchups in Week 15. His rushing total of 85.5 may seem high at first, but Robinson will likely see as many carries as he can handle. He was limited at practice this week but is part of his “load management” routine. 

Houston allows 130 running back rushing yards per game which is the most in the league. We are all over Robinson this week. 

PICK: James Robinson Over 85.5 rushing yards (-115 at DraftKings)

No Sunday for old Glen

Mike Glennon will get the start for the Giants this week after two unimpressive starts in consecutive weeks. Getting a line on this situation is somewhat surprising, as there has been a lot of talk about third-string quarterback Jake Fromm possibly relieving Glennon when he eventually falls on his face.

Giants beat writers think the switch is “inevitable” and if things go south early for Glennon against a defense that can beat you on the rush or in the secondary, Fromm could get some Week 15 action.

Even if Glennon does finish the game, we don’t like his prospects of hitting 200 yards passing. 

Glennon hasn’t thrown for more than 193 yards in his two starts and has gotten plenty of those yards in garbage time. Sterling Shepard is questionable, Kadarius Toney is out, Kenny Golladay seems uninterested and Evan Engram is coming off a one-catch performance last week.

With everything stacked against him including his skillset, Glennon is a perfect fade candidate in Week 15. His passing yard total is already starting to fall.

PICK: Mike Glennon Under 198.5 passing yards (-110 at bet365)

Chasing Claypool

Even if he's extremely unlikeable, Pittsburgh’s Chase Claypool is coming off an impressive game with eight or more targets for the third time in four games and finishing with 93 yards. The 93-yard performance was his fourth of the season and he’s averaging 80 yards per game over his last four. 

On Sunday, he’ll face a Titans defense that allows the most yards to opposing wide receivers (198 yards per game). Since Week 11, he sits 10th in air yards per game at 57 and has four catches of 20-plus yards. 

On the season, the Titans have allowed the fourth-most total yards on completed passes of 15 yards or more. This is a defense that has been burned by the big play this season and Claypool has been one of the best big-play receivers in 2021 as he sits in the Top 10 in catches of 30-plus yards and 40-plus yards.

With a modest receiving yard total of 55.5, we’re hitting the Over and putting our feelings towards the Pittsburgh receiver aside in order to hopefully win some money.

PICK: Chase Claypool Over 55.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)

Dialing it up deep

The Ravens have allowed the most completions of 15 yards or more in the league and have an 11% explosive pass rate which also is the second-worst mark in football. This week, they’ll have to contain Davante Adams and a Green Bay passing attack that is tied for sixth in the league in explosive pass rate at 10%.

Aaron Rodgers has six passes of 37 or more yards over his last four games. Davante Adams has 16 catches of 30-plus yards across 12 games while Marquez Valdes-Scantling has eight grabs at 30-plus yards in eight games. The Ravens rank 28th in dropback EPA and are a great matchup to exploit some “longest” Green Bay props.

Rodgers’ longest pass completion is sitting at 39.5 yards and he averages 1.25 completions of 40-plus yards per game. In a prop market that seems desolate with all the books trying to protect themselves, betting on a long Rodgers completion is one of the better angles we have found. 

PICK: Aaron Rodgers longest completion Over 39.5 yards (-115 at bet 365)

Season to date: 95-90 +2.75 units (Risking  to win 1 unit per play)

  • Josh Allen Under 31.5 rushing yards (-115)
  • Albert Okwuegbunam anytime TD 0.5 units (+600)
  • AJ Dillon Over 55.5 rushing yards (-115)
  • D'Onta Foreman Over 52.5 rushing yards (-110)

    - -

  • James Robinson Over 85.5 rushing yards (-115 at DraftKings)
  • Mike Glennon Under 198.5 passing yards (-110 at bet365)
  • Chase Claypool Over 55.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)
  • Aaron Rodgers longest completion Over 39.5 yards (-115 at bet 365)

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