Week 15 NFL Touchdown Props: Pats Continue to Pound the Ground

As health and safety protocols wreak havoc on the league, Week 15 is shaping up with lots of uncertainty. We're here to help you make the most of the upcoming touchdown markets with this week's TD prop picks.

Last Updated: Dec 17, 2021 1:45 PM ET Read Time: 4 min

The touchdown market has become one of the most popular and potentially profitable props in the NFL betting world. Each week, we’re going to throw down three to four units as we try to uncover some of the best weekly NFL TD props and dig into the matchups that surround them.

We’re going running back-heavy for Week 15 as we try to navigate the health & safety landscape, which could offer a ton of opportunities for bettors. 

Without further ado:

NFL Week 15 touchdown props

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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NFL Week 15 TD props

The Arizona Cardinals enter their Week 15 matchup with the Detroit Lions as 10.5-point favorites with a banged-up backfield. James Conner had two DNPs to start the practice week while Chase Edmonds has yet to be activated heading into this great matchup. 

The risks of taking Edmonds here aren’t as big as other injury plays, as if he is activated, he’ll suit up and play. If he isn’t activated, the bet will be void and we can install a pretty significant backup plan. 

Edmonds was used more between the 20s while splitting snaps with Conner, who was the more explosive back and had a big role in the passing game. The Lions allow 1.7 running back touchdowns per game, which is the second-most in the league. The Broncos’ running backs totaled four TDs last week vs. Detroit.

If Conner is out, Eno Benjamin could be the biggest benefactor. He is third on the RB pecking order with 61 snaps on the season and saw roughly 24% of the snaps in Weeks 9 through 11 when Edmonds was sidelined. He has 25 carries for 84 yards and a TD this year and is paying +750 at bet365 to score. If Conner is ruled out and Edmonds isn’t 100 percent, this price could look like a steal.

We’re hitting Edmonds (+130) at 0.63 units to win one unit and 0.4 units on Benjamin to win three units.

Urban Meyer is out and new interim head coach and Jacksonville offensive coordinator, Darrell Bevell, will take the reins for the Jaguars. Bevell has already stated that he intends to play running back James Robinson like a No. 1 RB Sunday versus the Houston Texans’ league-worst defense. 

“James Robinson is our starting running back and he will be played as such,” Bevell told NFL insider Ari Meirov. That sounds like a vote of confidence from Sunday’s play-caller to us. Also in Robinson’s favor is that backup RB Carlos Hyde has been ruled out for Week 15.

Robinson was DNP on Thursday but is dealing with a “load management” routine and likely won’t practice at all this week. He's very probable to suit up in a game in which the Jags will want to make a statement and the Texans are the perfect opponents to oblige. 

We will be hitting the over on most of Robinson’s opening markets and his anytime TD is no different. Terribly underused under Meyer, Robinson could be in for a massive day Sunday. We’re hitting his anytime TD (+105) to win 1.5 units and throwing another half unit on his 2+ TDs at +450.  

In one of the many lopsided matchups in Week 15, the Bills take on the Panthers as 10.5-point home favorites. Josh Allen is probable to start, as he is dealing with a foot injury, but with so much at stake, will Sean McDermott really put his No. 1 player in the line of fire?

The Bills can’t get too cute on Sunday against the fading Panthers as they cling to an AFC playoff spot and have the Pats on deck for Week 16. The Bills are still running the ball roughly 25 times per game over their last three, which is a pretty league-average rate. Devin Singletary is coming off a season-high 82% snap share, gained 52 yards on four carries vs. the Bucs, and turned seven targets into six grabs and 37 yards.

The usage is promising and we could likely see Brian Daboll call up a few plays for his running back to keep Allen out of danger. This Carolina defense has been generous of late, giving up 10 total TDs over its last three games. 

Singletary can be had at +150 for an anytime TD which is a price we can get behind in a game that Buffalo is a double-digit favorite and looking to protect their quarterback. It’s a one-unit play for us.

Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson are splitting snaps these days in the New England backfield, with Harris seeing 32 carries to Steveson’s 45 since Week 11. Harris has been cashing the TD tickets, though, but Stevenson has been getting plenty of attention in the red zone to warrant a wager on his anytime TD at +230.

Stevenson is averaging a healthy 4.7 yards per carry over his last 75 carries and has 14 red-zone carries over his last four matches. New England has resembled a pre-Super Bowl era offense and has no problem running the ball 35-40 times. The Colts pose a test to Bill Belichick’s infatuation with the ground game, but the Pats have run for at least 120 yards in seven of their last eight games and average 1.3 rushing TDs per game. 

Harris has been limited coming out of the bye after exiting Week 13’s game against the Bills with a hamstring injury. He hasn’t seen more than 11 carries in any of his last three games and Stevenson could be a big benefactor if Harris were to be limited in any manner.  

It’s not the greatest matchup, but the Pats’ commitment to the run makes either back a great TD play Saturday but we’re jumping on Stevenson at +230 for one unit.

Season to date: 19-43 -2.705 units

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