The Minnesota Vikings expect to have QB1 J.J. McCarthy back in action when they visit the Detroit Lions for an important NFC North showdown in Week 9.
McCarthy has been out since Week 3 due to an ankle injury. Given the second-year passer has only two regular season starts under his belt, just how much of a difference will McCarthy make for Minnesota?
Here are my early Vikings vs. Lions predictions and NFL picks for November 2.
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Vikings vs Lions predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
Early Vikings vs Lions spread pick: Lions -8.5
This spread opened Detroit Lions -9.5 and dropped to the dead zone of -8.5 with J.J. McCarthy slated to return for the Minnesota Vikings in Week 9.
His mobility does offer more than Carson Wentz’s aging legs, especially against a vaunted Lions pass rush. That said, we’ve got limited results from McCarthy, who has only looked serviceable for a fourth quarter in Week 1.
Minnesota’s offensive line is missing significant pieces, and even after a mini-bye following last Thursday’s one-sided loss at Los Angeles, there’s no guarantee the pass protection will be any healthier in Week 9. The Vikings entered Week 8 rated No. 22 in pass block win rate, and Wentz faced the sixth-highest pressure rate of any QB in his five games under center.
Detroit has turned up the intensity with the pass rush as it tries to protect a thinning secondary (which is expected to return Kerby Joseph and Brian Branch in Week 9). The Lions have 23 sacks in the last six games and boast the eighth-highest pressure rate per dropback.
I don’t want to put too much stock in the Vikings’ poor showing on TNF, and this is a lot of points to give in a divisional rivalry. However, I can’t trust that McCarthy is that much of an upgrade for Minnesota.
Early Vikings vs Lions total pick: Under 47.5
McCarthy has looked like a capable QB for about 15 minutes in 2025.
The Lions have had two weeks to scheme for Minnesota. They also have a massive home-field edge in terms of crowd noise and the edge in the trenches, given the injuries to the Vikings O-line – most notably the shifting spot at center. McCarthy will struggle at the line of scrimmage when it comes to adjusting plays and communicating.
There have only been a handful of quarterbacks to crack this Lions defense so far, and those were Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, and Jordan Love. McCarthy is not on that level.
As for the Lions offense, bettors should brace for a steady one-two punch of “Sonic and Knuckles” given Minnesota hasn’t been able to hold its ground.
Detroit’s combo of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery faces a run stop unit rating in the bottom third of the league. The Chargers’ depleted rushing corps still rumbled for more than 200 yards on 43 carries and dominated time of possession last Thursday.
A steady dose of the run and Jared Goff’s quick-hitting playbook will keep everything short against an aggressive Vikings game plan that blitzes at the highest rate in the league. The Lions have the fifth highest average TOP at 31:48 and could play "keep away" in the second half.
Vikings vs Lions odds
- Vikings vs. Lions spread: Lions -8.5
- Vikings vs. Lions moneyline: Vikings +370, Lions -480
- Vikings vs. Lions Over/Under: 47.5
How to watch Vikings vs Lions
- Vikings vs. Lions matchup
- Date: Sunday, November 2, 2025, 1:00 p.m. ET
- City: Detroit, MI
- Venue: Ford Field
- TV: FOX
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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