Tua Tagovailoa Odds and SNF Props: Bills Can Frustrate Tua in Regular Season Finale

The NFL blessed the football world with the perfect finale to the regular season on Sunday Night Football in Week 18. It’s a winner-takes-all AFC East showdown with the division crown on the line between the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins.

After a bumpy start to the season, Buffalo has found its rhythm, particularly on defense, and has the perfect opportunity to flex its muscles in Miami.

Despite being on the road, the NFL odds have the Bills -2.5 and it might have something to do with the way this defense matches up against Tua Tagovailoa.

You can see how I’m betting the Tua Tagovailoa odds as we dive into the Sunday Night Football odds in my free NFL picks below.

For more Sunday Night Football odds coverage, check out our Bills vs. Dolphins picks and the best Sunday Night Football prop picks. And if you're more keyed in on Tua's rival, we also have a spotlight on Josh Allen odds.

Tua Tagovailoa SNF prop picks

• Under 264.5 passing yards (-110 at bet365)
• Under 264.5 passing yards/Douglas Over 0.5 interceptions/Oliver to record a sack (+3,000)

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Tua Tagovailoa SNF prop pick

Under 264.5 passing yards (-110)

There’s a few things working against Tua Tagovailoa in this game against the Buffalo Bills. The conditions are supposed to be wet and rainy from Saturday afternoon into Sunday evening at Hard Rock Stadium and two of his key playmakers are questionable.

Both Jaylen Waddle and Raheem Mostert didn’t practice earlier in the week and were limited in practice on Friday — Waddle with an ankle injury and Mostert with both a knee and ankle injury. 

If both miss the game or aren’t at 100%, that should give the Bills an edge and allow Sean McDermott’s defense to key in even more on Tyreek Hill and the passing game. This is a Buffalo defense that’s been at its best against the pass this season and has gotten even better down the stretch.

This season, Buffalo is allowing just 198.4 passing yards per game, seventh least in the NFL, and after the bye in Week 13, the Bills have rattled off four straight wins while keeping opposing quarterbacks to 207.2 passing yards per game.

On the season, this defense has only given up 265 passing yards to five quarterbacks — Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes, Trevor Lawrence, Mac Jones, and Tagovailoa. In that first matchup with Miami in Week 4, Tagovailoa managed to throw for 282 yards. However, that was a 48-20 blowout win by the Bills in which the Dolphins were down 31-14 at half with much of Tagovailoa’s yardage coming in garbage time.

With the division on the line and the Dolphins at home, it’s hard to see Miami falling behind by enough for Tagovailoa’s numbers to get juiced by playing against a preventive defense. It’s also important to note the game came before the acquisition of cornerback Rasul Douglas.

Douglas has been a complete game-changer for this Bills defense. He’s caused six turnovers — four interceptions and two fumble recoveries — in nine games with the team and the EPA numbers hammer home the difference he’s made since joining Buffalo.

In the eight games before acquiring Douglas, Buffalo’s defense was 13th in EPA per play and 12th in EPA per dropback. In the eight since trading for the former Packer, the Bills are 10th in EPA per play and seventh in EPA per dropback.

It’s been even better since the Week 13 bye with it ranking fourth in EPA per play and second in EPA per dropback over its last four games. It hasn’t just been the Douglas effect either, the pass rush led by Leonard Floyd and Ed Oliver has come alive.

Buffalo is third in the league in sacks with 53 (3.3 per game) and the first time the Bills played the Dolphins, Tua was sacked four times. While Tagovailoa has been one of the least sacked quarterbacks in the league this season — 29 times in 16 games, 1.81 times per game — Miami’s offensive line has been banged up in recent weeks and the cracks are showing.

Over the Dolphins' last four games — since the loss to the Titans when starting center Connor Williams tore his ACL — Tua has been sacked 12 times (three per game). The injuries to Miami’s offense have impacted Tagovailoa in recent weeks.

This season, the Dolphins' offense is fourth in EPA per play and third in EPA per dropback with Tua sitting fourth in EPA per play and fifth in success rate, but in the back half of the season, he’s 12th in EPA per play and 15th in success rate with the Dolphins offense ranking 12th in EPA per play and EPA per dropback since Week 9.

To make matters worse, Miami is 16th in EPA per play and 15th in EPA per dropback while Tua is 14th in EPA per play since the loss to the Titans. Tagovailoa has thrown for at least 265 yards in eight of 16 games this season, but he’s done it just four times in his last 11 games.

Prop: Under 264.5 passing yards (-110 at bet365)

Tua Tagovailoa SNF same-game parlay

Tua Tagovailoa Under 264.5 passing yards

Rasul Douglas Over 0.5 interceptions

Ed Oliver to record a sack

+3,000 at bet365

Douglas has been a ball magnet in Buffalo and is coming off his second two-interception performance of the season against the Patriots. The former third-round pick out of West Virginia is among the league leaders in interceptions over the last three seasons with 14 in 44 games.

Douglas is currently tied for the fourth-most interceptions and has been playing at a Pro Bowl level all season with an 83.8 PFF grade. When targeted this season, Douglas is allowing just a 72.9 passer rating and has yet to give up more than 45 yards since joining the Bills.

Tagovailoa has also been one of the most intercepted quarterbacks in the league — he’s tied for the fifth-most interceptions thrown with 12 in 16 games. Pressure has forced him into mistakes this season and Buffalo is one of the best in the business at getting after quarterbacks.

With Williams out for the season and starting guard Robert Hunt only just returning this week after missing the last four games, Buffalo’s in a great position to apply interior pressure. Oliver has been a force all season, finally living up to his Top-10 pick selection.

Oliver is tied for second among interior defensive linemen with 9.5 sacks and has had at least one sack in seven of 15 games. He's also got 3.5 sacks in his last four outings.

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