C.J. Stroud got a taste of Kansas City’s raucous playoff atmosphere last season, and with both teams battling to stay in playoff contention, tonight’s game promises that same intense postseason energy.
Let's get into it all with our Texans vs. Chiefs predictions and best bets for the Sunday Night Football matchup kicking off at 8:20pm ET.
Texans vs Chiefs SNF predictions
- Texans +3.5 (-105 at FanDuel)
- Under 41.5 (-104 at FanDuel)
- Hunt anytime TD (+140 at FanDuel)
- Stroud o12.5 rushing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Texans vs Chiefs SNF best bets
Texans +3.5
I like Houston with the half-point hook on the field goal. The Texans took Kansas City to the brink last January, but turnovers and poor pass protection did them in. I think Houston is in better shape on both sides of the ball this time around.
/
Under 41.5
I bet the Under 43.5 on the opening total, and even with this tumbling down to 41.5 points, I still like the Under. Both teams will lean on their defense and C.J. Stroud sees his passing production dip in outdoor games – especially with temperatures down to 17 degrees on Sunday night.
Texans vs Chiefs SNF TD picks
Kareem Hunt Anytime TD
Kareem Hunt is the go-to guy when the Kansas City Chiefs get close to the goal line, and although I can see this game going Under 42.5, I can't pass up on the value offered on Hunt's TD prop.
The Houston Texans boast the top scoring defense in the NFL. They've allowed only 12 passing touchdowns all season, tied for second in the league.
However, the Texans drift to eighth-best when it comes to preventing rushing touchdowns, and all nine were surrendered to running backs.
Hunt has been tasked with 31 red-zone carries this season compared to only 10 for Pacheco. The numbers inside the five-yard line are even more stark, with Hunt seeing 12 carries and Pacheco getting zero.
Six of Hunt's seven rushing TDs in 2025 came from handoffs less than five yards from the end zone.
Hunt had a four-game streak with a TD snapped on a short week vs. Dallas, but I see him starting a new one off a mini-bye in this spot, and at his highest odds since Week 8 to boot.
Texans vs Chiefs SNF props
C.J. Stroud Over 12.5 rushing yards
C.J. Stroud probably still has nightmares about that last meeting with the Kansas City Chiefs. The Houston Texans' quarterback was pressured on more than 51% of his dropbacks and was sacked eight times in the 23-14 loss to the Chiefs last January.
He’ll face similar pressure from Steve Spagnuolo this Sunday, with the Kansas City defensive coordinator blitzing at the third-highest rate in the NFL. And while the Texans’ offensive line is improved from last year (not that tough to do, considering how bad they were), Stroud will feel that heat on a chilly night in Chiefs Kingdom.
That constant hounding forced Stroud to take off with the football six times for 42 rushing yards in that postseason matchup. In his first seven games of 2025, Stroud was also doing damage with his legs. He rushed four or more times in five of those games, amassing at least 22 rushing yards in all but one of those seven showings.
Then, early into the second quarter versus the Denver Broncos in Week 9, Stroud took off down the middle of the field and bashed his helmet off the turf as he was tackled sliding. He would suffer a concussion that would take him out for the next three games before returning to action in the win over the Indianapolis Colts last weekend.
Stroud and offensive coordinator Nick Caley were cautious in that game, with no designed runs for the QB, and Stroud was hesitant to take off when the pocket collapsed. Now, with another week to recover and Kansas City presenting a much more aggressive pressure than the Colts, the Texans' QB will need to use his legs on Sunday night.
The Chiefs’ pass rush has prompted rival QBs to turn into runners at a high rate, with KC seeing the fourth highest rushing attempts from the position and allowing the eighth most rushing yards to quarterbacks.
Player projections for Stroud all sit above his current rushing bar of 12.5 yards, with most models at 16-plus and a ceiling of 23 yards.
Texans vs Chiefs odds
Texans vs Chiefs game info
| Location: | GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO |
| Date: | Sunday, December 7-2025 |
| Kickoff: | 8:20 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBC |
Texans vs Chiefs latest injuries
Texans vs Chiefs weather
Monitor gametime conditions with our live NFL weather info and learn how weather impacts NFL betting.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
