I had a solid Survivor Pool run in 2024. So solid in fact, the powers that be for Covers.com were starting to sweat a little.
I was unscathed 11 weeks into a wild NFL schedule, and among just 23 of the original 3,800 contestants still in the running for the $10,000 grand prize. Well, sort of.
Being a Covers employee, I was never truly in contention for the money, but it definitely would have thrown a hiccup into our contest plans should I survive all the way to Week 18. Maybe the bosses could toss me a Foot Locker gift card or something?
Luckily for them and everyone else in the pool, I crapped out in Week 12. You’re welcome.
A new season brings another chance at Covers Survivor Pool glory, and with the head honchos putting another $10K up for grabs, I’m back on the poolie beat this year and giving my favorite survivor pool picks each week.
Be sure to sign up and jump in the survivor pool at Covers Contests. It’s absolutely free to play (along with a bunch of other NFL contests this season).
On to Week 1…
Best survivor pool bets for Week 1
Philadelphia Eagles
Denver Broncos
Best pick: Philadelphia Eagles
Opponent: Dallas Cowboys
Moneyline odds: -380 (79.17% implied win probability)
I don’t try to get cute in Week 1. Let everyone else screw themselves by overthinking it.
The Philadelphia Eagles have the second-highest implied win probability, opening the season at home vs. Dallas on Thursday night. The Eagles’ chances soared when the Cowboys traded Micah Parsons away last week, leaving Dallas with a dud of a defense.
The Cowboys' passing game could keep this one interesting but Philly packs a punch on both sides of the ball, and reigning Super Bowl winners are generally a solid bet in Week 1.
Philadelphia has value in the coming weeks, but its schedule gets tricky in the back half of the year. I’m going to use the Eagles now rather than stash the champs.
Safest pick: Denver Broncos
Opponent: Tennessee Titans
Moneyline odds: -400 (80% implied win probability)
The Denver Broncos are the safest selection in terms of win probability, and also the most popular survivor pool picks for Week 1.
If 2024 taught us anything, it was that win probabilities don’t mean squat. It seemed like almost every week we witnessed the top survivor selection implode – taking half the pool with it. This year has to be a little more predictable, right?
Tennessee could be the very worst team in the land and will be starting a rookie QB on the road against this vaunted Denver defense.
For what it’s worth, the Broncos are money in home openers. The team is 20-5 SU in their first home game, not only leaning on the crowd, but the thin air at Mile High to sap their opponents’ energy as teams work their way into game shape.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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