Clyde Edwards-Helaire may have a ring on his hand, but he’s got unfinished business in the latest Super Bowl odds.
The Kansas City Chiefs running back was a last-minute scratch in Super Bowl LVII in 2023, despite being activated ahead of the Chiefs’ win over the Philadelphia Eagles.
In fact, Edwards-Helaire didn’t discover his game status until he walked into the locker room and noticed he didn't have a jersey laid out. Rough.
Before that, CEH was a rookie on Kansas City’s 2021 AFC title team that lost to Tom Brady and Tampa Bay in Super Bowl LVI. He was one of the few bright spots for the Chiefs in that 31-9 loss, totaling 87 yards of offense.
Needless to say, Edwards-Helaire is chomping at the bit to get back on the NFL odds biggest stage when Kansas City battles the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl LVIII.
Read on as I size up Clyde Edwards Helaire odds and give my best Super Bowl predictions and NFL picks for Super Sunday.
Be sure to also check out my full Chiefs vs. 49ers predictions ahead of the Big Game.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire Super Bowl prop picks
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Clyde Edwards-Helaire Super Bowl prop pick
Over 5.5 receiving yards (+115)
Super Bowl LVIII props for Edwards-Helaire have been a pain in the ass for bookies and bettors, and we can blame Jerick McKinnon for that.
The Kansas City Chiefs activated the other running back last weekend, and that put CEH’s spot on the depth chart in question. Should McKinnon have recovered from his late-season groin injury and been able to play on Sunday, Edwards-Helaire ran the risk of losing snaps — especially as the third down RB.
That trimmed CEH’s totals (the ones that were available at select books), with his rushing prop dropping from 6.5 to 4.5 yards, and his receiving yards slimming from 5.5 to 4.5 yards.
However, according to head coach Andy Reid, McKinnon has a slim chance to be ready in time for Super Sunday, and we’ve seen those Edwards-Helaire yardage props come back up to their original mark as of Thursday afternoon.
Note: I may have tried to get out ahead of CEH’s possible downtick in snaps by betting Under 6.5 rushing yards earlier this week. While that outcome is still possible, it felt much “sharper” a couple of days ago. What are you going to do?
What I am more interested in is Edwards-Helaire’s pass-catching prowess, specifically against this San Francisco 49ers defense.
San Francisco has shown a weakness to short outside throws and passes behind the line of scrimmage, which is right in CEH’s wheelhouse. On the year, the 49ers gave up the eighth-most receiving yards to RBs for an average of just shy of seven yards per reception.
Edwards-Helaire’s work as a receiver has been tempered in the postseason, with only four catches on four targets for seven total yards (while his rushing numbers have been solid). This current Over/Under is his second-lowest receiving prop in recent contests, with totals of 5.5, 10.5, 4.5, 6.5, 10.5, and 15.5 in his last six outings (with odds on the board).
CEH was very active in the passing game toward the end of the regular season with receiving efforts of 29, 42, and 64 yards in December. On the year, he averaged 1.13 receptions on 1.47 targets for 11.1 yards per reception.
His production as a pass-catching RB also sees an uptick versus man-to-man coverage, averaging more than 15 yards per reception in one-on-one situations compared to just 8.3 yards per catch versus zone.
While the Niners predominantly run a zone-heavy scheme, defensive coordinator Steve Wilks has been rolling out more man-press and will have to play more man-to-man than he would like, considering Patrick Mahomes eats up zone coverage like hot wings at a Super Bowl party.
Player projections for Edwards-Helaire dance around more than the skittish RB out of LSU, ranging from lows of four yards to highs of 14. My forecast calls for 9.7 receiving yards from CEH, which provides solid positive expected value with his Over 5.5 yards priced as high as +115 (some books have it -110).
Prop: Over 5.5 receiving yards (+115 at Pinnacle)
Clyde Edwards-Helaire Super Bowl same-game parlay
Clyde Edwards-Helaire Over 5.5 receiving yards
Patrick Mahomes 2+ passing touchdowns
Chiefs moneyline
CEH may only get one shot at a reception on Sunday, but the matchup and the projections seem positive on that catch going for seven or more yards.
Meanwhile, Mahomes is among the best of all time in big games and can feast on a zone-heavy 49ers defense. The defending champs have more ways to make the 49ers uncomfortable and boast the better QB, coaching staff, and currently — a superior defense.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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