The Pittsburgh Steelers will head to Gillette Stadium to take on the New England Patriots on Sunday, September 21, with the two AFC clubs sporting 1-1 records.
My early Steelers vs. Patriots predictions and NFL picks anticipate improvement from the Pittsburgh defense, paving the way for a low-scoring victory in Week 3.
Steelers vs Patriots predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
Early Steelers vs Patriots spread pick: Steelers -1.5
I’m not reading too much into the Pittsburgh Steelers losing 31-17 at home to the Seattle Seahawks in Week 2.
There was an odd Seattle touchdown on a Pittsburgh kickoff fumble the Seahawks recovered in the end zone, and Pittsburgh receiver Calvin Austin deflected an intended pass for tight end Pat Freiermuth in the end zone that resulted in an interception.
In the same vein, the New England Patriots' topping the dysfunctional Miami Dolphins doesn’t carry much weight, either. Miami has allowed the highest EPA per play, after all.
Returning to The Black and Gold, I’m anticipating marked improvement on defense in Week 3, too.
Pittsburgh allowed the eighth-fewest points per game and ninth-lowest EPA per play while ranking third in PFF defense grade last season.
The Steelers' stop unit leads the way to a bounce-back win Sunday.
Early Steelers vs Patriots total pick: Under 44.5
The path to the Under has largely been laid out above.
There were three special-teams scores in the Week 2 games the Pittsburgh Steelers and New England Patriots played, and the Pats' offense also benefited from playing the porous defense of the Dolphins.
This total has also already crept up from look-ahead numbers in the 42.5 to 43.5 range, with FanDuel opening at 40.5 last Tuesday.
It’s a sizeable climb, and the Under has hit in seven of the past 10 meetings between the two clubs.
Steelers vs Patriots odds
- Steelers vs. Patriots spread: Patriots +1.5
- Steelers vs. Patriots moneyline: Steelers -116, Patriots -102
- Steelers vs. Patriots Over/Under: 44.5
How to watch Steelers vs Patriots
- Steelers vs. Patriots matchup
- Date: Sunday, September 21, 2025, 1:00 p.m. ET
- City: Foxboro, MA
- Venue: Gillette Stadium
- TV: CBS
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
