Tonight's top Steelers vs. Bengals computer picks headline Week 10 Sunday Night Football, as the 6-2 Steelers visit the 6-2 Bengals at Paycor Stadium with first place in the AFC North on the line. Kickoff is at 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC and Peacock, and Cincinnati is a 3.5-point favorite.
Our eight player-prop picks include Aaron Rodgers' passing yards, Joe Burrow's 300-yard linem, and Ja'Marr Chase's receptions, plus a pair of Germie Bernard props.
See what our Covers prop projections suggest, and check out more NFL picks for Week 10.
Steelers vs Bengals computer picks
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
 Steelers |
 Bengals |
|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers u249.5 passing yards 56% |
Joe Burrow o299.5 passing yards 47% |
| Germie Bernard anytime touchdown 26% |
Mike Gesicki o24.5 receiving yards 52% |
| Pat Freiermuth o24.5 receiving yards 56% |
Ja'Marr Chase o7.5 receptions 49% |
| Germie Bernard o49.5 receiving yards 50% |
Chase Brown o39.5 rushing yards 60% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Steelers vs Bengals prop analysis
Steelers computer picks
Aaron Rodgers Under 249.5 passing yards (56%)
Projection: 236.40 passing yards
The Pittsburgh Steelers have leaned on their ground game, rushing for 145.7 yards per game over their last three, and Aaron Rodgers is averaging 233.9 passing yards through eight games. He's stayed Under 249.5 in five of them, including a 13-for-25, 172-yard outing against the Browns before the bye. Our model projects 236.40 passing yards, about 13 below the line.
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Germie Bernard anytime touchdown (26%)
Projection: 0.45 touchdowns
Germie Bernard has one touchdown this season, a game-winning overtime catch against the Buccaneers on Oct. 18, when he saw 12 targets and made 11 catches. He is the Steelers' No. 2 receiver behind DK Metcalf, who has caught just three of 12 targets over the last two games. Our model projects 0.45 touchdowns, a huge gap above Kalshi's 26% price.
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Pat Freiermuth Over 24.5 receiving yards (56%)
Projection: 34.47 receiving yards
Pat Freiermuth has 25 catches for 235 yards and four receiving touchdowns, and he's topped 24.5 receiving yards in five of eight games. Covers' touchdown preview also notes that Cincinnati allows the most receiving yards to opposing tight ends in the NFL. He's questionable with an illness, so his availability matters, but our model projects 34.47 yards, about 10 above the line.
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Germie Bernard Over 49.5 receiving yards (50%)
Projection: 57.71 receiving yards
Bernard has caught 32 passes for 284 yards this season and has cleared this line twice, with 11 catches for 87 yards against Tampa Bay and 80+ yards against Indianapolis. Metcalf's recent struggles to haul in targets leave room for the rookie to keep soaking up looks from Rodgers. Our model projects 57.71 receiving yards, roughly eight above the line.
🔥 Trade Bernard receiving yards now
Bengals computer picks
Joe Burrow Over 299.5 passing yards (47%)
Projection: 330.60 passing yards
Joe Burrow is averaging 298.3 passing yards and has thrown 16 touchdowns against three interceptions over his last four games, while the Cincinnati Bengals rank last in the NFL with 22.1 rushing attempts per game. He threw for 282 yards at Pittsburgh in Week 3 and has topped this line twice, with 428 against Jacksonville and 462 against Tennessee. Our model projects 330.60 passing yards, about 31 above the 299.5-yard mark.
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Mike Gesicki Over 24.5 receiving yards (52%)
Projection: 36.86 receiving yards
Mike Gesicki has six touchdowns in eight games, and his yardage has been up and down, with four games above 24.5 yards, including 76 against Tennessee. He had 37 yards at Pittsburgh in Week 3, and our Steelers vs. Bengals prediction notes he's also gone for 53 and 68 yards against the Steelers as a Bengal. With wide receiver Andrei Iosivas listed out, our model projects 36.86 receiving yards, about 12 above the line.
🔥 Trade Gesicki receiving yards now
Ja'Marr Chase Over 7.5 receptions (49%)
Projection: 8.18 receptions
Ja'Marr Chase has 53 catches in eight games and is coming off back-to-back big outings, with 11 catches for 141 yards against Tennessee and 10 for 155 at Atlanta. He caught nine passes for 98 yards and a touchdown in the Week 3 meeting with the Steelers. Our model projects 8.18 receptions, just above the 7.5 line, and Kalshi's 49% price makes this a close call.
Chase Brown Over 39.5 rushing yards (60%)
Projection: 49.45 rushing yards
Chase Brown is averaging 49.6 rushing yards per game and has topped 39.5 in five of eight, including 57 yards on nine carries at Atlanta. Cincinnati's pass-heavy approach caps his volume, but he still averages nearly 13 carries per game. Our model projects 49.45 rushing yards, about 10 above the line, and Kalshi prices the Over at 60%.
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