The Baltimore Ravens face the Kansas City Chiefs in a battle of Super Bowl contenders on Sunday afternoon.
Both teams have struggled to defend the run, which is why my Ravens vs. Chiefs predictions feature KC running back Isiah Pacheco and Baltimore All-Pro Derrick Henry in my same-game parlay. I'm also betting on Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in a rare spot as home underdogs.
Here is my best Ravens vs. Chiefs same-game parlay for Sunday, September 28.
Our best Ravens vs Chiefs SGP for Week 4
Chiefs +2.5
Isiah Pacheco Over 34.5 rushing yards
Derrick Henry Over 83.5 rushing yards
Derrick Henry rumbled for 169 yards in Baltimore's season opener before being contained by strong run defenses the last two weeks.
The four-time All-Pro has an easier matchup this week against a Kansas City Chiefs squad that is 29th in the league in defensive rush success rate. They've been even worse against the run when operating out of base defense, which is bad news against a Baltimore Ravens offense that likes to pound the rock with 12 personnel formations.
While I expect King Henry to get his yards, I still think the Chiefs will cover as short home underdogs.
Keep in mind that Patrick Mahomes is 12-3-1 ATS as an underdog in his career, while Ravens QB Lamar Jackson is 1-4 SU in his career against the Chiefs.
The Ravens are also playing on the road on a short week after losing on Monday night to the Lions. Their defense has looked vulnerable, and they are banged up on the defensive line with Pro Bowl DT Nnamdi Madubuike and Broderick Washington sidelined.
Baltimore is last in the NFL in defensive rush success rate and has allowed 4.9 yards per carry, which makes this a favorable matchup for Isiah Pacheco.
Pacheco hasn't done much this year, which is why his rushing yards total is sitting at just 34.5. That said, he's still the most talented RB on the Chiefs roster, and he's coming off a season-high 10 carries for 45 yards.
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