The Kansas City Chiefs have been through too many big games to press the panic button after three uninspiring outings, but it’s hard to shake the feeling that they’ll need something special from Patrick Mahomes on Sunday to get past the Baltimore Ravens.
The Chiefs have been flat offensively without Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy, but Mahomes looked sharper in a Week 3 win over the New York Giants – and he could be ready for takeoff against a Baltimore defense that’s allowed the second-most points in the NFL so far this season.
My favorite Patrick Mahomes odds and prop bets for this Sunday, September 28, matchup lean into a big passing day for No.15.
Patrick Mahomes prop pick
Patrick Mahomes best bet: Over 238.5 passing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
The ‘Patrick Mahomes as an underdog’ records are getting plenty of airtime again this week – that’s 12-3-1 ATS and 11-5 SU, for those living under a rock – but perhaps the more telling numbers ahead of this marquee matchup are tied to the struggling Baltimore Ravens defense.
Though the Kansas City Chiefs are still cobbling together an offense until all their playmakers return, I like their chances of moving the ball on Baltimore this weekend. The Ravens are allowing the most yards per game in the NFL (415) and the second-most passing yards per game (266.3).
That makes the Over on Mahomes’ passing yards a must-have prop. He nailed this Over in the season opener against a tough Los Angeles Chargers defense, and Xavier Worthy’s return gives the Chiefs another explosive threat while also opening up the middle of the field for Travis Kelce.
In Worthy’s absence, Tyquan Thornton emerged as another deep-ball option, with a catch of 30+ yards in all three games this season, and those chunk plays will be key to cashing this Over. Plus, Nnamdi Madubuike’s neck injury makes it less likely that the Ravens will get traction up front.
With the Chargers making a real run at the AFC West crown, there’s a kitchen sink element to this Week 4 contest for Kansas City, who would fall to 1-3 with a loss here (just as Baltimore would). These situations usually bring out the best in Mahomes.
Patrick Mahomes same-game parlay
Mahomes Over 238.5 passing yards
Mahomes Over 1.5 passing TDs
Lamar Jackson anytime TD
I’ll double down on Mahomes to pick on favorable matchups on Sunday with the Over on 1.5 passing TDs. That involves largely throwing out what we’ve seen over the last three weeks and focusing instead on the Chiefs’ offensive ceiling, which is unquestionably higher with Worthy available again. After giving up 12 TDs through three weeks, the Ravens are vulnerable.
Lamar Jackson won’t want to be outshone in this superstar showdown, so I expect both he and Derrick Henry to make an aggressive start.
Jackson got into the end zone in the season opener against the Buffalo Bills, and there should be opportunities to call his own number when the Chiefs commit extra bodies to slow down Henry.
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