The Pittsburgh Steelers and Minnesota Vikings will play in Dublin, Ireland, on Sunday morning, and for a second straight year, the Aaron Rodgers odds will be in the spotlight in a game played across the pond.
We’ll get into the best way to bet on Rodgers, who has featured plenty of short passes this season, and explain why, despite a tough matchup, it could be a good day for Pittsburgh’s offense.
Let’s get into our best NFL picks for Vikings vs. Steelers on Sunday, September 28.
Aaron Rodgers prop pick
Aaron Rodgers best bet: Under 202.5 passing yards (-114)
I’m not going to say definitively that Aaron Rodgers will struggle against the Minnesota Vikings. After all, Minnesota’s pass rush is largely ineffective, which should give the aging veteran some much-needed time in the pocket behind his weak offensive line.
That’s all well and good, but even if that means Rodgers can execute the game plan, it doesn’t mean he’ll be racking up a ton of yards.
The 41-year-old has thrown for just 195 yards per game on a decent 29 attempts per game due to the fact that the Pittsburgh Steelers rank fifth-highest in checkdown rate through three weeks. While short passes are the name of the game, they’re also almost exclusively available against this tough Vikings defense.
Minnesota has allowed the fourth-lowest pass play rate in the league, something which makes sense given it sits second in DVOA against the pass, but more than that, it’s allowed checkdowns at the third-highest clip in the league.
That means if Rodgers is going to have any level of success in completing passes, he’ll be recording very few yards. The Vikings have allowed just 141 passing yards per game, and I don’t see that changing here. If you’re looking for a safer market, you might want to check out his attempts or completions, but for the purposes of the below parlay, we’ll stick with his yardage.
Aaron Rodgers same-game parlay
Rodgers Under 202.5 passing yards
Rodgers Over 1.5 passing TDs
Steelers +2.5
Yes, you’re reading this right! Rodgers, with his excellence on short passes dating back to his days with the New York Jets, is Pittsburgh’s primary weapon in the red zone. He’s thrown for six touchdowns inside the 20 — the most in the NFL — despite attempting just eight passes.
The Vikings have allowed a so-so 50% touchdown rate in the red zone — it’s just all about whether or not Pittsburgh can get there.
I do believe it can, however, and I like the Steelers to win this game. Pittsburgh’s excellent pass rush should have Carson Wentz in jail, and it ranks second in takeaways per game. I expect the defense to do half of the work for the offense here and open up this contrarian parlay.
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