Matthew Stafford is coming off a four-touchdown performance in a blowout win, but our Rams vs. Broncos AI picks project a narrow Rams victory as road favorites on Sunday Night Football, which kicks off tonight at 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC/Peacock) from Empower Field at Mile High in Denver, Colo.
Our AI model projects a 23-21 win for the Rams as part of our NFL AI predictions for Week 3. Below, we break down why the model is backing the Rams to win and the Broncos to cover, along with its best anytime touchdown pick using the latest odds from the best prediction market apps.
Rams vs Broncos AI picks
Win probability courtesy of Kalshi at time of publish; odds may vary.
Rams vs Broncos AI prediction
SUN · 8:20 P.M. ET · NBC / PEACOCK
Win probability · market-impliedMore analysis
The Rams have the offensive firepower to win, but the Broncos should make them work for it. Stafford threw four touchdown passes in Monday's 28-6 win over the Giants, with Davante Adams supplying 195 receiving yards and two scores while Puka Nacua was inactive. The Broncos present a tougher test after holding the Jaguars to 13 points. Their passing game also found some rhythm, with Bo Nix throwing for 288 yards and Jaylen Waddle accounting for 138.
We have the Rams winning 23–21, making Broncos +2.5 and Under 44.5 our selections. The Rams face a shorter turnaround after playing Monday, and a Broncos secondary led by Patrick Surtain II gives us reason to expect a closer game than their last outing. Our two-point margin leaves the Broncos inside the spread, while 44 combined points land below the total. Both picks clear the current Kalshi lines by just half a point.
Rams vs Broncos AI touchdown pick
How our NFL AI predictions work
Our NFL AI predictions use a custom forecasting model built with GPT-6 Astra to project a final score for each matchup using historical scoring results, team-strength ratings, game conditions, matchup details, and other relevant context for predicting the final score.
The score forecasts are fixed before we compare them with the selected Kalshi spread and total to produce our ATS and Over/Under picks. Kalshi percentages are market quotes, separate from the score forecasts. We track results against the original selections and lines at time of publish.
We’ll continue updating the process as the season develops and publicly track every published score prediction, ATS pick, and Over/Under selection.
