New Orleans is a 3.5-point favorite over Las Vegas for Sunday’s 4:25 p.m. ET matchup at Caesars Superdome, and my Raiders vs. Saints predictions start with an early lean toward a Saints team that has impressed through two difficult matchups. I’m also eyeing a total that looks a couple of points too low.
Check out our latest NFL picks for more Week 3 leans.
Raiders vs Saints predictions
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Early Raiders vs Saints spread pick: Saints -3.5
Simply put, I'm willing to invest in the New Orleans Saints up to -4.5 because they have better and deeper personnel than the Las Vegas Raiders at every unit.
New Orleans' two covers — as a 7.5-point underdog in an overtime loss to the Detroit Lions and as an 8.5-point underdog in a win over the Baltimore Ravens — are more impressive than Las Vegas’ two wins and covers against the Miami Dolphins and Los Angeles Chargers.
The Saints were on the road in each of the first two weeks, while the Raiders were at home against Miami before playing in Los Angeles, where much of the crowd rooted for Las Vegas given the franchise's history in LA. New Orleans has a legitimate home-field advantage when the Saints are good, and their fans have reason for optimism.
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Early Raiders vs Saints total pick: Over 43.5
I lean toward the Over 43.5 because this total should be 45.5, and I have New Orleans winning somewhere around 27-20. Las Vegas' defense looks better on paper than it actually is after facing the Dolphins and Chargers.
Miami has a defensive-minded rookie head coach, a first-year starting quarterback, and a bottom-five WR corps. The Chargers are still learning new offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel's system and also have a below-average pass-catching group.
New Orleans has played at the league's fastest offensive pace, while QB Tyler Shough and WR Chris Olave have looked excellent. Pro Football Focus grades Shough as the 10th-best quarterback through Weeks 1-2 and Olave as the sixth-best wide receiver.
Raiders vs Saints odds
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Raiders vs Saints spread: Raiders +3.5 (56%), Saints -3.5 (49%)
- Raiders vs Saints moneyline: Raiders 41%, Saints 64%
- Raiders vs Saints Over/Under: 43.5
How to watch Raiders vs Saints
- Date: Sunday, Sept. 27, 2026, 4:25 p.m. ET
- City: New Orleans, LA
- Venue: Caesars Superdome
- TV: CBS
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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