In Baker Mayfield, I trust; I'm absolutely looking to fade the return of Kyler Murray and an inefficient offense in my Vikings vs. Buccaneers prediction, and you should, too.
This is coming down to a pick 'em in Tampa Bay, but the Bucs are in a prime bounce-back spot after a tough loss to the Cleveland Browns.
Dive into all of our expert NFL picks for Week 3.
Vikings vs. Buccaneers predictions
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Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Early Vikings vs Buccaneers spread pick: Buccaneers +1.5
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are better than their 0-2 record indicates, and it's put-up-or-shut-up time against the Minnesota Vikings in Week 3 if they want to win a weak NFC South.
It's probably a welcome sight that Kyler Murray will likely get the start, with Carson Wentz leading the Vikings to two wins in his absence. Murray played just 11 snaps in the team's opener before leaving with a concussion, and now draws a difficult matchup against a top-10 defense.
Baker Mayfield hasn't gotten going this year yet (albeit, he was playing in rain in Week 2), but the offense has too much talent surrounding him to lay low for one more week. I'm expecting a bigger breakout in what should finally be a sunny day in Tampa.
I'd play this to 53%.
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Early Vikings vs Buccaneers total pick: Under 42.5
We're seeing two mediocre offenses against two top-10 defenses in Week 3. The Vikings have had to play mistake-free football on both sides of the ball - their defense has allowed an average of just 12.5 points per game as a result. It's also one of the best red-zone defenses this year, allowing a touchdown on just 12% of trips inside the 20.
With positive regression looming for the Bucs' defense against Murray and Co. I'm projecting this total to close closer to 40.5.
Play this number to 53%.
Vikings vs Buccaneers odds
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Vikings vs Buccaneers spread: Buccaneers +1.5
- Vikings vs Buccaneers moneyline: Vikings 56%, Buccaneers 45%
- Vikings vs Buccaneers Over/Under: 42.5
How to watch Vikings vs Buccaneers
- Date: Sunday, Sept. 27, 2026, 4:05 p.m. ET
- City: Tampa, FL
- Venue: Raymond James Stadium
- TV: FOX
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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