NFL preseason results won't decide playoff seeding, but the win-loss numbers still offer a real window into which coaches take August seriously and which ones are simply managing snap counts.
If you're putting money on preseason action, understanding how each team and coaching staff has historically approached these games matters more than most bettors realize.
Coaching philosophy varies widely here. Some coaches lean into playing their starters extended minutes to build chemistry and evaluate depth, while others treat the entire slate as a glorified practice, keeping stars and key backups out of harm's way until Week 1 actually counts. Knowing which approach a given coach favors is often the single biggest edge available in preseason betting.
Worth noting heading into another cycle: the league has trimmed the preseason to three games rather than the traditional four, meaning what used to be a Week 4 tune-up now effectively happens in Week 3, the final dress rehearsal before the regular season kicks off. Below, we break down the league-wide trends worth knowing, plus a team-by-team and coach-by-coach look at where the historical value has been.
NFL preseason betting trends
- Underdogs of +1 to +3 points have covered at a 60% clip since 2015.
- Road underdogs of +2.5 or less have gone 75-38 ATS over the last decade, one of the more reliable situational trends in preseason football.
- Teams coming off a 20-plus point win the previous week are 23-7 straight-up and 17-10-2 ATS in their next game over the past 12 years, proof that preseason momentum is real even when the games mean little.
- Totals have clustered heavily around 37 points. Over the past 15 years, closing totals of 37 or below have gone OVER close to 60% of the time, while totals set above 37 have hit the UNDER at a 56% clip.
Notable NFL preseason betting trends by team
- Atlanta has gone 0-6-1 straight-up in its last five preseason games and sits at 2-5 ATS over that stretch.
- Baltimore rode a long stretch of preseason dominance before regressing to 5-4 straight-up and 2-7 ATS recently, as sportsbooks have visibly adjusted for John Harbaugh's track record.
- Chicago has been excellent, going 9-2-1 straight-up and 10-2 ATS across its last 12 preseason games, with the OVER hitting in 8 of 12.
- Cincinnati has struggled to a 1-9-1 mark straight-up and 4-7 ATS in its last 11 preseason games, consistent with Zac Taylor's approach of holding starters for the regular season.
- Cleveland has dropped six of its last eight preseason games under Kevin Stefanski, going 3-5 ATS over that span.
- Dallas is a team to fade outright. Since 2008, the Cowboys are 7-24 straight-up and 9-21-1 ATS, with the UNDER cashing 19 times in 31 games.
- Detroit has been surprisingly poor at home, going 2-9 both straight-up and ATS in its last 11 preseason home games, though the OVER has hit in 8 of those 11.
- Houston is worth targeting on the road, going 6-2 both straight-up and ATS in its last eight preseason road games.
- LA Chargers have struggled badly at home, going just 1-9 straight-up and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 preseason home contests.
- New England is a reliable UNDER team, with the UNDER hitting in 15 of the Patriots' last 22 preseason games.
- NY Jets have been strong on the road under new leadership, going 8-2 both straight-up and ATS in their last 10 road preseason games, including a 30-10 win over Green Bay in a recent Week 1.
- Seattle has been a strong UNDER play at home, hitting the UNDER in 9 of its last 14 home preseason games.
- Tampa Bay has been weak under Todd Bowles, going 8-14 straight-up and 7-15 ATS in the preseason since 2013.
NFL preseason head coaching trends
Harbaugh is a preseason legend
Whether it's roster depth, coaching discipline, or some combination of both, John Harbaugh's preseason results have been remarkable for over a decade, sitting at 42-21 ATS all-time (all with Baltimore). Few coaches carry the kind of preseason credibility Harbaugh does, and that track record is worth real weight when handicapping Giants preseason games. That said, sportsbooks have clearly caught up to the trend in recent years, and lines have adjusted accordingly, so treat this as a historical baseline rather than a guaranteed edge.
Quinn's Commanders remain an automatic fade
Dan Quinn's teams have been consistently poor preseason bets, and Washington is no exception. The Commanders sit at 3-7 ATS in their last 10 preseason home games, and Quinn's career mark across two head coaching stints stands at a rough 7-17-1 ATS. Between that history and Washington's tendency to hold key starters out of preseason action entirely, fading the Commanders in August has been one of the more reliable plays available.
McDermott a formidable foe in August
Sean McDermott has quietly built a strong preseason mark at 15-10 ATS, making him one of the more underrated names on this list for bettors looking for situational value beyond the household names at the top of the chart.
NFL preseason betting trends FAQs
Yes, though not in the same way regular-season games do. Preseason results won't affect playoff seeding, but the betting trends behind them are real and repeatable, from underdog performance to coach-specific tendencies, making preseason action worth handicapping seriously rather than dismissing outright.
Road underdogs of 2.5 points or less have gone 75-38 ATS over the past decade, one of the most reliable situational angles in preseason football. Underdogs of +1 to +3 points more broadly have covered at a 60% clip since 2015.
It varies year to year based on coaching philosophy and roster construction, but certain situational trends have held up over time, including specific teams performing notably better on the road than at home, or vice versa. Checking team-specific history before betting is more useful than assuming preseason results are random.
No. Coaching approaches vary widely. Some coaches use the preseason to get starters real game reps and build chemistry, while others hold key players out almost entirely to avoid injury risk before the games that count. Knowing a coach's tendency matters more in the preseason than in any other part of the season.
It depends on the total. Closing totals of 37 points or below have gone OVER close to 60% of the time over the past 15 years, while totals set above 37 have hit the UNDER at a 56% clip, making the number itself a key factor in which side holds more value.
