The AFC North title and a playoff berth will be on the line Sunday night at Acrisure Stadium when the Baltimore Ravens take on the Pittsburgh Steelers.
The Ravens are -3.5 betting favorites at the best NFL betting sites. There are also a ton of SNF props available to bet on now.
Below, we will take a look at NFL player prop projections for all of the top offensive players in this game.
Our computer projects big statistical games from Mark Andrews, Kenneth Gainwell, Pat Freiermuth, and Aaron Rodgers.
Ravens vs Steelers computer picks for Sunday Night Football
 Ravens |
 Steelers |
|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson Under 214.5 passing yards (-112) | Aaron Rodgers Over 200.5 passing yards (-114) |
| Derrick Henry Under 90.5 rushing yards (-110) | Kenneth Gainwell Over 29.5 rushing yards (-114) |
| Lamar Jackson Over 21.5 rushing yards (-117) | M. Valdes-Scantling Over 61.5 receiving yards (-114) |
| Mark Andrews Over 28.5 receiving yards (-110) | Pat Freiermuth Over 31.5 receiving yards (-114) |
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Ravens SNF computer picks
Lamar Jackson Under 214.5 passing yards (-112)
Projection: 193.8 yards
It’s always difficult to trust taking a Lamar Jackson passing yardage over.
The Baltimore Ravens QB has thrown for more than 200 yards in just half of the games he’s played in so far this season. He has only two plus-200 passing yardage games in his last seven games.
The Pittsburgh Steelers' pass defense is borderline horrific, ranking 29th in the NFL. But Baltimore will want to control the clock in this one, paving the way for plenty of carries for Derrick Henry and Jackson himself. This will take precedent over the pass.
I’m going to take the Under here on Jackson passing yards, as is the computer.
Derrick Henry Under 90.5 rushing yards (-110)
Projection: 75.9 yards
The Ravens inexplicably stopped running the ball with Derrick Henry in their 28-24 loss to the Patriots a couple of weeks back. Henry carried the ball just 18 times but still managed to put up 128 yards on the ground.
John Harbaugh learned his lesson, though, as he let Henry tote the rock a whopping 36 times last week against Green Bay. Henry rewarded Harbaugh’s faith by rushing for a season-high 216 yards.
The season is again on the line for the Ravens, and I expect Harbaugh to try to make Pittsburgh stop their strength, which is running the ball with Henry and Lamar.
This number is too high to be too confident with, but I’ll go there with Henry in a do-or-die situation. I like the Over, while the computer likes the Under.
Lamar Jackson Over 21.5 rushing yards (-117)
Projection: 28.3 rushing yards
Again, I expect Harbaugh to try to control the clock and play to the Ravens' strength.
Lamar should see plenty of designed runs, and he will do his typical scrambling act for positive yardage.
The last time the Ravens and Steelers met, on Dec. 7, Jackson carried the ball seven times for 43 yards.
Harbaugh is well aware that in the Steelers’ most lopsided loss in the past two months - a 26-7 loss versus Buffalo - a big part of the Bills’ gameplay was letting Josh Allen beat them with his legs and not his arm.
Allen threw for just 123 yards in that Nov. 30 clash but carried the ball eight times for 38 yards and a TD.
I like the Ravens to employ a similar strategy against a mediocre Pittsburgh run defense.
Mark Andrews Over 28.5 receiving yards (-111)
Projection: 35.7 yards
Mark Andrews is clearly on the Back-9 of his career. He does not have a plus-100-yard game this season (something he used to do several times per season), and hasn’t gone for over 50 yards in a game since Sept. 22.
In his last four games, he has averaged just 19 yards receiving per game. He has been targeted just 3.75 times per game in that span.
The days of Andrews being a focal point of the Ravens’ offense are done.
I like the Andrews Under here, while the computer likes the Over.
More Sunday Night Football picks from Covers
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Steelers SNF computer picks
Aaron Rodgers Over 200.5 passing yards (-114)
Projection: 218.2 yards
Aaron Rodgers has averaged just 201.8 passing yards per game this season, so this projected total is fitting for Week 18.
That said, the Ravens' pass defense can make Rodgers look like he’s 28 years old again. Rodgers’ season high in passing yardage (284) came against Baltimore a month ago.
Baltimore’s defense hasn’t done much to rectify its woes in the past few weeks either.
New England’s Drake Maye threw for a career-high 380 yards in Week 16 against Baltimore, and Green Bay’s Malik Willis threw for a career-high 288 yards against the Ravens last week.
Rodgers should be able to eclipse 200.5 yards. The computer and I both like Rodgers to go Over.
Kenneth Gainwell Over 29.5 rushing yards (-114)
Projection: 34.3 yards
As bad as the Ravens’ pass defense is, its run defense has been serviceable. Here are the yardage totals for opposing teams’ top running backs vs. the Baltimore D over the past month:
- Josh Jacobs: 3 yards
- Emanuel Wilson: 16 yards
- Rhamondre Stevenson: 51 yards
- TreVeyon Henderson: 3 yards
- Chase Brown: 53 yards
- Jaylen Warren: 13 yards
- Kenneth Gainwell: 15 yards
Not too shabby of a job by the Ravens.
Kenneth Gainwell posted just 15 yards against the Baltimore defense on Dec. 7, and he is still getting out-touched by Jaylen Warren coming out of the backfield.
This number is far too high for Gainwell, IMO. I’ll take the Under, while the computer likes the Over.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling Over 27.5 receiving yards (-114)
Projection: 37.5 yards
With DK Metcalf suspended last week against Cleveland, Marquez Valdes-Scantling was targeted a season-high nine times. He registered 21 yards receiving.
Metcalf will still be serving his suspension in this game against the Ravens, so Rodgers will again be looking MVS’s way early and often.
I don’t like how high this number is considering MVS hasn’t gone for Over 27.5 receiving yards since last season. But Pittsburgh’s offense is in desperation mode with Metcalf out, so someone will need to be fed.
I’ll take the MVS Over, as will my computer buddy.
Patrick Freiermuth Over 31.5 receiving yards (-114)
Projection: 36.6 yards
Patrick Freiermuth led the Steelers in receiving yardage last week against Cleveland, as he hauled in 63 yards.
Conventional wisdom would suggest that the Steelers will move away from targeting Freiermuth and fellow tight end Jonnu Smith so much, considering they mustered just 6 points using that philosophy last week. But that was against an elite Browns defense.
It will be much easier sledding this week against the Ravens' defense.
The computer and I both like the Over here for Freiermuth.
