Ten weeks of football is the tipping point when it comes to betting on NFL underdogs.
In those opening 10 slates, bookies and bettors are sorting the good from the bad.
Underrated teams are unearthed. Overrated ones are exposed. And in the middle of all that discovery, NFL underdog picks usually thrive.
Since 2010, teams getting the points have produced a collective 52.8% cover rate in the first 10 weeks of action. But once Week 11 rolls around, that blind return on pups dries up quicker than Mark Sanchez’s job prospects.
Over the past 15 seasons, dogs cover at just a 48.4% clip from Week 11 to the final game of the schedule.
So, what does that mean for an upside-down 2025?
Underdogs didn’t thrive in the first 10 weeks of play this year, limping into Week 11 with a mere 68-76-2 ATS record (47.3%).
Will Week 11 kick dogs while they’re down, or will the sports betting gods demand balance and pump up the pups in the home stretch of the schedule?
There’s only one way to find out.
Here are my latest NFL picks for Week 11.
Last week: 2-1 ATS
Season: 17-13 ATS (+2.09 units)
NFL Week 11 predictions and picks
Commanders +3
Broncos +4
Titans +7.5Washington Commanders (+3) at Miami Dolphins
Best bet: Washington Commanders +3 -115
(-115 at BetRivers)
The Washington Commanders stuff a five-game losing skid into a suitcase and head to Spain in Week 11.
Washington has been absolutely walloped during this span, with things getting really dicey in recent games. To the Commies’ defense, they have faced Detroit, Seattle, and Kansas City in the past three weeks.
Waiting in Madrid are the Miami Dolphins.
Miami owns an identical 3-7 record as Washington but heads into Santiago Bernabéu on the back of the franchise’s biggest win in years. The Dolphins stunned the rival Bills 30-13 at home last Sunday, setting up a looming letdown spot on international turf.
The Fins are known to flop, putting up a 2-7 SU/ATS record off a win over the past two seasons, and Miami coach Mike McDaniel is generating some bad juju with his drive-by trolling of Buffalo fans last Sunday.
"Schadenfreude" is a German term, but karma knows no borders. McDaniel might not have a flight home from Spain if he doesn’t win, given that a Week 12 bye is the ideal time to drop the ax on the underperforming coach.
This is a classic buy low, sell high spot with two comparable teams playing in a strange setting. And with Washington head coach Dan Quinn taking over play calling for the defense, we could see a “Dead Cat” bounce from the Commanders’ sluggish stop unit.
Quinn will inject more chaos into Washington’s approach, going heavier on the blitz in hopes of generating some rushed and wayward passes. His past teams have thrived on forcing turnovers — like those Dallas D’s — but this year’s team has only four takeaways.
Tua Tagovailoa seems like a perfect pawn for this chess game, considering he has 13 interceptions and ranks No. 1 in “Danger Plays” among all quarterbacks.
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (+4)
Best bet: Denver Broncos +4 -110
(-110 at bet365)
Although Andy Reid has an outstanding career record when given an extra week to prep, the Kansas City Chiefs head coach sports a 3-5 ATS record off a bye since 2020.
Those recent results haven’t stopped bettors from piling on the Chiefs — off a bye — when they travel to face the Denver Broncos in Week 11. That’s puffed this spread from Broncos +3.5 to the magic number of +4 — a no-man’s land of point spread purgatory in which favorites win but just can’t seem to cover.
While KC has enjoyed extra time off, so have the Broncos. Denver extended its six-game run with a joyless win over Las Vegas on TNF in Week 10, setting up a mini bye to rest and prep for what will be the Broncos’ biggest game of the year.
This is the best defense the Chiefs have faced all season and a much stiffer test than Kansas City’s recent foes. Denver sits Top 5 in many of the “All Holy” advanced metrics like EPA allowed per play, success rate, and DVOA. Most importantly, this Broncos defense brings the heat.
Denver leads the NFL in sacks and QB hits, while generating the fourth-highest pressure rate. The Bills were able to crack a suspect KC offensive line in Week 9, sacking Patrick Mahomes three times and pressuring him on almost 53% of his dropbacks. That left Mahomes to go 3-for-16 passing for 61 yards and an INT when under duress.
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (+7.5)
Best bet: Tennessee Titans +7.5 -110
(-110 at DraftKings)
The last slice of pizza. Drunk dialing an ex. Cat sitting.
All terrible things we swear we’re never going to do again... but do.
Add betting on the Tennessee Titans to this list.
Back in September, I swore off the Titans. So why the about-face in Week 11?
Perhaps, I should say I’m betting “against” the Houston Texans rather than “on” the Titans.
Houston needed a miracle fourth quarter to avoid a home loss to Jacksonville last Sunday and is playing without QB1 C.J. Stroud, who could sit again due to a concussion. The Texans have enjoyed three straight home games, but now leave NRG for Nashville and run the risk of a nasty “letdown/look-ahead” sandwich this Sunday.
After taking on the Titans, Houston has a short turnaround to ready itself for a mid-week matchup with Buffalo in Week 12. With that contest being the team’s sixth game in 31 days, we could see the Texans take their foot off the gas in the second half of this AFC South showdown.
Tennessee is coming off a bye, which allows interim coach Mike McCoy time to catch his breath, tighten the bolts on this offense, as well as return some key pieces on both sides of the ball.
The Titans also pose a threat to a suspect Texans offensive line that could be down two starters. Tennessee’s pass rush has done a good job getting to rival quarterbacks, sitting sixth in QB hit rate and 13th in total sacks (22).
It did just that against the L.A. Chargers’ porous pass protection in Week 9, scoring six sacks on Justin Herbert, who also threw a pick-six. The Titans limited Los Angeles to 212 yards passing in the 27-20 loss, covering as 10-point home dogs.
My NFL Underdogs column is 17-13 this season for +2.09 units.
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