Friday Junior has arrived, which means the weekend is almost here. Before we get there, though, we still have a full slate to attack. Here are my MLB moneyline predictions for every game on today's board.
See what teams need to be on your MLB picks on Thursday, July 30!
MLB moneyline picks for July 30
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Rangersvs  Rays |
-156 |
 Royalsvs  Twins |
+127 |
 Yankeesvs  White Sox |
-106 |
 Cubsvs  Cardinals |
-111 |
 Piratesvs  Reds |
+106 |
 Marlinsvs  Mets |
-120 |
 Nationalsvs  Braves |
-135 |
 Red Soxvs  Athletics |
+160 |
 Giantsvs  Padres |
-133 |
 Marinersvs  Dodgers |
-144 |
Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of July 30.
Trade on the MLB at Polymarket!
Sign up now using our exclusive Polymarket promo code 'COVERS' (on your mobile app only) and get a $50 trading bonus after you deposit $50 to trade on any other event contracts — including MLB moneylines!
*Eligible locations only
Expert MLB moneyline picks for July 30
Rangers vs Rays: Rays (-153)
Rays win probability: 60%
Royals vs Twins: Royals (+127)
Royals win probability: 44%
Yankees vs White Sox: White Sox (-106)
White Sox win probability: 52%
It is hard for me to overlook what Sean Burke has done over his last five starts. The White Sox right-hander has been dealing, posting a 1.74 ERA, 2.02 xERA, 0.84 WHIP, and an impressive 36.44% strikeout rate during that span. On the other side, Yankees left-hander Ryan Weathers owns a 5.48 ERA over his last five outings with a 41% hard-hit rate.
Neither offense has been swinging it particularly well over the last few weeks, but this feels like a spot where the White Sox are primed for another breakout, similar to what we saw against the Astros on Sunday. With Burke pitching as well as he has, I like the value on Chicago.
Cubs vs Cardinals: Cardinals (-111)
Cardinals win probability: 52%
After the Cardinals' thrilling extra-innings win last night, I think they find a way to even the series today.
Javier Assad gets the ball for the Cubs, and some of his underlying metrics over his last five starts stand out for the wrong reasons. He owns a 4.14 xERA while allowing a 45.10% hard-hit rate. The Cardinals offense has been cold over the last few weeks, but one thing they have continued to do is generate hard contact, posting at least a 42% hard-hit rate over their last 21 games.
Andre Pallante has much stronger underlying numbers than Assad during that span, and with the value on St. Louis, I lean toward the Birds taking this one.
Pirates vs Reds: Reds (+106)
Reds win probability: 48%
Talk about an all-time MID-OFF. Both starting pitchers own ERAs north of 6.91 over their last five starts, and neither offense has managed a wRC+ above 100 over its last 12 games.
With that said, I am backing the underdog. Cincinnati's offense has been quiet, but it continues to generate plenty of hard contact, giving me confidence that some positive regression is coming.
On top of that, the Reds have consistently been a high-strikeout lineup, and Pirates left-hander Hunter Barco owns just a 13% strikeout rate this season, limiting his ability to capitalize on that weakness.
Give me the dog!
Marlins vs Mets: Mets (-115)
Mets win probability: 54%
I am not worried about another Eury Perez masterclass, especially with how well Nolan McLean has been pitching. Over his last five starts, the Mets right-hander has been even better, posting a 1.20 ERA and 1.10 WHIP while holding opponents to a 32% hard-hit rate and 6.49% barrel rate.
At the plate, the Mets have continued to swing it well over their last 21 games, while the Marlins have cooled off considerably since their red-hot June and early July stretch. Over their last 12 games, Miami owns just an 86 wRC+, .219 wOBA, and .137 ISO.
Give me the Amazin' Mets!
Nationals vs Braves: Braves (-134)
Braves win probability: 57%
Red Sox vs Athletics: Athletics (+160)
Athletics win probability: 38%
I am simply not laying -163 with the Red Sox just because Sonny Gray is on the mound. While he is putting together a season worthy of AL Cy Young consideration, the veteran right-hander has looked a bit shaky over his last few starts.
Athletics starter Mason Barnett has struggled mightily in his recent outings, but the offense is in for a turnaround. At this price, I would rather take a shot with the underdog than lay heavy juice behind a pitcher who may be showing signs of regression.
Giants vs Padres: Padres (-133)
Padres win probability: 57%
You all know my rule: fade teams coming off an offensive explosion. The Giants are fresh off a 16-run outburst in Wednesday's win over the Brewers, and now they have to turn around and face JP Sears and the Padres.
This has all the makings of a classic letdown spot for San Francisco. After emptying the tank offensively last night, I expect the bats to cool off, making San Diego the side I want to back.
Mariners vs Dodgers: Dodgers (-144)
Dodgers win probability: 59%
"Oh, Roki Sasaki is pitching? Let's take the Mariners."
Have fun.
I'll trust the arm that has posted a 1.59 ERA and 0.86 WHIP over his last three starts instead of hoping Bryan Woo, who owns a 5.63 ERA and 1.82 WHIP during that same stretch, suddenly flips the script.
The Dodgers offense has also started to heat up over the last week, posting a .188 ISO, .784 OPS, and 119 wRC+. Meanwhile, the Mariners own just a 101 wRC+, .311 wOBA, and an anemic 3.2% walk rate over that span.
Give me the better pitcher, the hotter offense, and the better team.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
