The Covers NFL Parlay builder cheat sheet brings some of the most useful information together in one place to help you with your NFL picks.
Each week, we'll highlight 2026 hit rates for some of the NFL's biggest stars, notable Covers player prop projections, touchdown values, and other numbers worth knowing before building your NFL picks card.
Once you're ready, head to the Covers app to build out your parlay and compare prices across all options. Download now!
NFL player prop hit rates
Current-season hit rates can give bettors a quick look at how frequently a player has reached certain yardage thresholds in 2026.
Instead of looking only at whether a player went Over or Under a traditional sportsbook prop, the tables below show how frequently featured players have reached a range of statistical milestones.
Quarterback passing yard hit rates
For quarterbacks, we're looking at how frequently each player has reached a series of passing-yard thresholds during the 2026 regular season.
| Player | 175+ | 200+ | 225+ | 250+ | 275+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Josh Allen |
3/3 100% |
3/3 100% |
2/3 67% |
1/3 33% |
1/3 33% |
 Patrick Mahomes |
3/3 100% |
2/3 67% |
2/3 67% |
1/3 33% |
1/3 33% |
 Joe Burrow |
3/3 100% |
3/3 100% |
2/3 67% |
2/3 67% |
1/3 33% |
 Matthew Stafford |
2/3 67% |
2/3 67% |
2/3 67% |
2/3 67% |
2/3 67% |
 Lamar Jackson |
3/3 100% |
2/3 67% |
2/3 67% |
1/3 33% |
1/3 33% |
How to read the table: A 3/3 hit rate means the player reached that yardage threshold in all three of his 2026 regular-season appearances so far. Denominators reflect games played, with DNPs excluded.
Running back rushing yard hit rates
For running backs, we're looking at how frequently each player has reached a series of rushing-yard thresholds during the 2026 regular season.
| Player | 40+ | 50+ | 60+ | 70+ | 80+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jahmyr Gibbs |
3/3 100% |
3/3 100% |
2/3 67% |
2/3 67% |
2/3 67% |
| Derrick Henry |
3/3 100% |
3/3 100% |
3/3 100% |
2/3 67% |
2/3 67% |
| Kenneth Walker III |
3/3 100% |
3/3 100% |
3/3 100% |
3/3 100% |
2/3 67% |
 Christian McCaffrey |
2/3 67% |
2/3 67% |
2/3 67% |
1/3 33% |
0/3 0% |
| James Cook |
3/3 100% |
3/3 100% |
2/3 67% |
2/3 67% |
2/3 67% |
Wide receiver receiving yard hit rates
For wide receivers, we're looking at how frequently each player has reached a series of receiving-yard thresholds during the 2026 regular season.
| Player | 60+ | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jaxon Smith-Njigba |
3/3 100% |
3/3 100% |
3/3 100% |
3/3 100% |
3/3 100% |
| Ja'Marr Chase |
2/3 67% |
2/3 67% |
1/3 33% |
1/3 33% |
0/3 0% |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown |
2/3 67% |
1/3 33% |
1/3 33% |
1/3 33% |
1/3 33% |
 CeeDee Lamb |
2/3 67% |
2/3 67% |
2/3 67% |
2/3 67% |
2/3 67% |
| Davante Adams |
2/3 67% |
2/3 67% |
2/3 67% |
2/3 67% |
2/3 67% |
Tight end receiving yard hit rates
| Player | 30+ | 40+ | 50+ | 60+ | 70+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Trey McBride |
3/3 100% |
3/3 100% |
2/3 67% |
2/3 67% |
2/3 67% |
| George Kittle |
2/3 67% |
2/3 67% |
2/3 67% |
2/3 67% |
2/3 67% |
 Tyler Warren |
1/3 33% |
1/3 33% |
1/3 33% |
0/3 0% |
0/3 0% |
| Travis Kelce |
3/3 100% |
3/3 100% |
3/3 100% |
2/3 67% |
2/3 67% |
 Brock Bowers |
1/1 100% |
1/1 100% |
1/1 100% |
1/1 100% |
1/1 100% |
Important: These hit rates use 2026 regular-season appearances only. With three completed weeks, Week 4 hit rates still represent a small sample and should not be interpreted as the probability of a player reaching the same threshold this week. DNPs are excluded, which is why Brock Bowers' current sample is 1/1.
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Biggest Covers player prop projection gaps
Hit rates tell us what players have done so far in 2026. Covers NFL prop projections give us another way to evaluate what could happen this week.
The table below highlights Sunday player props where the Covers projection differs noticeably from the currently listed betting line. A larger difference doesn't guarantee an Over or Under will hit, but it can help identify markets worth investigating further.
Top Covers projection edges
| Player | Market | Listed line |
Covers projection |
Diff. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow |
Passing Yards |
263.5 | 308.00 | +44.50 |
 C.J. Stroud |
Passing Yards |
240.5 | 282.88 | +42.38 |
| Kirk Cousins |
Passing Yards |
229.5 | 258.19 | +28.69 |
 Bo Nix |
Passing Yards |
224.5 | 252.69 | +28.19 |
| Patrick Mahomes |
Passing Yards |
240.5 | 261.00 | +20.50 |
Lines and projections as of Sept. 30. Refresh player prop lines and projections before publication. Differences represent the gap between the Covers projection and the listed betting line, not a projected probability of winning the bet.
NFL touchdown values
Touchdown scorers are among the most popular legs used in NFL parlays, but a strong likelihood of scoring doesn't necessarily mean a player is offering strong betting value.
Our very own Andy Whiteoak created an NFL touchdown grade guide to highlight the top-value plays in the market. Listed below are the Top 5!
| Player | Opp. | Index Score |
Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
 Emanuel Wilson |
 |
83 | 30% |
 Kenneth Walker III |
 |
76 | 61% |
 James Cook III |
 |
74 | 53% |
 D'Andre Swift |
 |
73 | 56% |
| George Holani |
|
73 | 22% |
Remember that hit rate and value are not the same thing. A player who has scored frequently may still offer little betting value if sportsbooks are charging an extremely short price for his anytime touchdown prop.
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Numbers worth knowing this week
Josh Allen 200+ passing yards
Allen has cleared 200 passing yards in all three games this season, throwing for 334, 248, and 204 yards.
Kenneth Walker III 70+ rushing yards
Walker has reached 70 rushing yards in all three games this season, rushing for 173, 117, and 70 yards.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba 100+ receiving yards
Smith-Njigba has topped 100 receiving yards in all three games this season, posting 122, 155, and 128 yards.
Travis Kelce 50+ receiving yards
Kelce has cleared 50 receiving yards in all three games this season, recording 71, 101, and 59 yards.
Joe Burrow passing projection
The Covers projection of 308.00 passing yards sits 44.50 yards above the currently listed 263.5-yard line.
Emanuel Wilson TD projection
Wilson tops Andy Whiteoak's NFL Touchdown Scorer Value Index
Create parlays like this and more using the betslip builder with the Covers app to compare prices across all options! Download now!
How to use the NFL parlay builder cheat sheet
This page isn't meant to tell bettors that every high hit-rate player belongs in the same parlay. Instead, use the different sections to help narrow down markets for further research:
- Use hit rates to see how consistently players have reached common statistical thresholds
- Use Covers projections to compare projected performance against current sportsbook lines
- Use touchdown grades to identify players whose TD prices may offer value
- Check the Sunday watchlist for injuries, role changes, weather, or other information that could affect a player's outlook
- Compare prices before adding a leg, especially when using alternate player props
And remember: the strongest individual bets aren't necessarily the strongest combination. Each additional parlay leg increases the number of outcomes that need to go your way.
Before you build your NFL parlay
Check the latest information before placing your bets.
Player prop lines, odds, and alternate markets can change throughout Sunday morning. Confirm player availability, injury news, weather, and the latest sportsbook prices before finalizing your parlay.
Current-season hit rates are provided for informational purposes and describe previous 2026 results. Do not interpret them as the probability of a player reaching the same statistical threshold in an upcoming game.
