The Covers NFL Parlay Builder Cheat Sheet brings some of the most useful information together in one place to help you with your NFL picks.
Each week, we'll highlight 2026 hit rates for some of the NFL's biggest stars, notable Covers player prop projections, touchdown values, and other numbers worth knowing before building your card.
NFL player prop hit rates
Current-season hit rates can give bettors a quick look at how frequently a player has reached certain yardage thresholds in 2026.
Instead of looking only at whether a player went Over or Under a traditional sportsbook prop, the tables below show how frequently featured players have reached a range of statistical milestones.
Quarterback passing yard hit rates
For quarterbacks, we're looking at how frequently each player has reached a series of passing-yard thresholds during the 2026 regular season.
| Player | 175+ | 200+ | 225+ | 250+ | 275+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Patrick Mahomes |
1/1 100% |
0/1 0% |
0/1 0% |
0/1 0% |
0/1 0% |
 Joe Burrow |
1/1 100% |
1/1 100% |
1/1 100% |
1/1 100% |
0/1 0% |
 Drake Maye |
1/1 100% |
0/1 0% |
0/1 0% |
0/1 0% |
0/1 0% |
 Lamar Jackson |
1/1 100% |
1/1 100% |
1/1 100% |
1/1 100% |
1/1 100% |
 Jalen Hurts |
1/1 100% |
1/1 100% |
0/1 0% |
0/1 0% |
0/1 0% |
How to read the table: A 1/1 hit rate means the player reached that yardage threshold in his only 2026 regular-season appearance so far. With just one game in the sample, early-season hit rates should be viewed in context and will become more informative as the season progresses.
Running back rushing yard hit rates
For running backs, we're looking at how frequently each player has reached a series of rushing-yard thresholds during the 2026 regular season.
| Player | 40+ | 50+ | 60+ | 70+ | 80+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry |
1/1 100% |
1/1 100% |
1/1 100% |
1/1 100% |
1/1 100% |
| Kenneth Walker III |
1/1 100% |
1/1 100% |
1/1 100% |
1/1 100% |
1/1 100% |
 Bijan Robinson |
1/1 100% |
1/1 100% |
1/1 100% |
1/1 100% |
1/1 100% |
 Christian McCaffrey |
1/1 100% |
1/1 100% |
1/1 100% |
0/1 0% |
0/1 0% |
| Saquon Barkley |
1/1 100% |
1/1 100% |
1/1 100% |
1/1 100% |
1/1 100% |
Wide receiver receiving yard hit rates
For wide receivers, we're looking at how frequently each player has reached a series of receiving-yard thresholds during the 2026 regular season.
| Player | 60+ | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Marr Chase |
0/1 0% |
0/1 0% |
0/1 0% |
0/1 0% |
0/1 0% |
 Jaxon Smith-Njigba |
1/1 100% |
1/1 100% |
1/1 100% |
1/1 100% |
1/1 100% |
 Justin Jefferson |
1/1 100% |
1/1 100% |
1/1 100% |
1/1 100% |
0/1 0% |
 CeeDee Lamb |
0/1 0% |
0/1 0% |
0/1 0% |
0/1 0% |
0/1 0% |
 Chris Olave |
1/1 100% |
1/1 100% |
1/1 100% |
1/1 100% |
1/1 100% |
Tight end receiving yard hit rates
| Player | 30+ | 40+ | 50+ | 60+ | 70+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Trey McBride |
1/1 100% |
1/1 100% |
1/1 100% |
1/1 100% |
1/1 100% |
| Travis Kelce |
1/1 100% |
1/1 100% |
1/1 100% |
1/1 100% |
1/1 100% |
 Colston Loveland |
0/1 0% |
0/1 0% |
0/1 0% |
0/1 0% |
0/1 0% |
| Dallas Goedert |
1/1 100% |
1/1 100% |
1/1 100% |
1/1 100% |
1/1 100% |
 Isaiah Likely |
1/1 100% |
1/1 100% |
1/1 100% |
1/1 100% |
1/1 100% |
Important: These hit rates use 2026 regular-season appearances only. With just one completed game, Week 2 hit rates represent an extremely small sample and should not be interpreted as the probability of a player reaching the same threshold this week. The sample will grow as the season progresses.
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Biggest Covers player prop projection gaps
Hit rates tell us what players have done so far in 2026. Covers NFL prop projections give us another way to evaluate what could happen this week.
The table below highlights player props where the Covers projection differs noticeably from the currently listed betting line. A larger difference doesn't guarantee an Over or Under will hit, but it can help identify markets worth investigating further.
Top Covers projection edges
| Player | Market | Listed Line |
Covers Projection |
Diff. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Geno Smith |
Passing Yards |
200.5 | 226.45 | +25.95 |
 Malik Willis |
Passing Yards |
170.5 | 194.61 | +24.11 |
 Matthew Stafford |
Passing Yards |
249.5 | 272.19 | +22.69 |
 Deshaun Watson |
Passing Yards |
180.5 | 203.14 | +22.64 |
| KC Concepcion |
Receiving Yards |
28.5 | 49.70 | +21.20 |
Lines and projections as of Sept. 15. Refresh player prop lines and projections before publication. Differences represent the gap between the Covers projection and the listed betting line, not a projected probability of winning the bet.
NFL touchdown values
Touchdown scorers are among the most popular legs used in NFL parlays, but a strong likelihood of scoring doesn't necessarily mean a player is offering strong betting value.
Our very own Andy Whiteoak created an NFL touchdown grade guide to highlight the top-value plays in the market. Listed below are the Top 5!
| Player | Opp. | Index Score |
Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
 Lamar Jackson |
 |
72 | 34% |
 Demarcus Robinson |
 |
72 | 21% |
| George Kittle |
|
72 | 34% |
 Colby Parkinson |
 |
69 | 20% |
| Chris Moore |
|
68 | 7% |
Remember that hit rate and value are not the same thing. A player who has scored in five of his last 10 games may still offer little betting value if sportsbooks are charging an extremely short price for his anytime touchdown prop.
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Numbers worth knowing this week
Lamar Jackson 275+ passing yards
Jackson threw for 324 yards in Week 1, clearing every passing-yard threshold in our table.
Derrick Henry 80+ rushing yards
Henry opened the season with 144 rushing yards in Week 1, clearing every rushing-yard threshold in our table.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba 100+ receiving yards
Smith-Njigba finished Week 1 with 122 receiving yards and cleared all five receiving-yard thresholds.
Trey McBride 70+ receiving yards
McBride recorded 95 receiving yards in Week 1 and cleared all five tight-end thresholds.
Geno Smith passing projection
The Covers projection of 226.45 passing yards sits 25.95 yards above the currently listed 200.5-yard line.
Lamar Jackson tops TD grades
Ravens QB Lamar Jackson tops the Covers Anytime TD Value Index for Week 2 with a grade of 72.
Create parlays like this and more using the betslip builder with the Covers app to compare prices across all options! Download now!
How to use the NFL parlay builder cheat sheet
The goal of this page isn't to tell bettors that every high hit-rate player belongs in the same parlay.
Instead, use the different sections to help narrow down markets for further research:
- Use hit rates to see how consistently players have reached common statistical thresholds
- Use Covers projections to compare projected performance against current sportsbook lines
- Use touchdown grades to identify players whose TD prices may offer value
- Check the Sunday watchlist for injuries, role changes, weather, or other information that could affect a player's outlook
- Compare prices before adding a leg, especially when using alternate player props
And remember: the strongest individual bets aren't necessarily the strongest combination. Each additional parlay leg increases the number of outcomes that need to go your way.
Before you build your NFL parlay
Check the latest information before placing your bets.
Player prop lines, odds, and alternate markets can change throughout Sunday morning. Make sure to confirm player availability, injury news, weather, and the latest sportsbook prices before finalizing your parlay.
Historical hit rates are provided for informational purposes and describe previous results. They should not be interpreted as the probability of a player reaching the same statistical threshold in an upcoming game.
