Panthers vs Lions Odds, Picks, and Predictions Week 5: Lions Assert Themselves as Jungle Cat Kings

The Detroit Lions host the Carolina Panthers on Sunday afternoon in Week 5 of NFL action. It might seem wild for long-suffering Detroit fans to see their team as a double-digit NFL odds favorite but given how this season has gone, it isn't that surprising to see those odds.

The Lions are atop the NFC North with a 3-1 record after hammering the Packers at Lambeau Field last Thursday while the Panthers are one of only two teams in the NFL that has yet to win a game. Here are my best Panthers vs. Lions free NFL picks and predictions for October 8.  

Panthers vs Lions odds

Panthers vs Lions predictions

The Lions are off to their best start since 2017, and traveling to Lambeau to beat the Packers by 14 points on primetime was as big a statement as they could make. Sure, they also knocked off the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs on the road in their season opener but they benefitted from several lucky drops in that contest.

On the other hand, the victory against the rival Packers was a good old-fashioned beatdown with Detroit piling up 211 yards on the ground and controlling possession for almost 38 minutes. Consecutive double-digit victories against the Pack and Falcons mean that the Lions are eating plenty of chalk against an 0-4 Panthers squad.

Panthers rookie quarterback Bryce Young looked terrible in his first two career starts, but after missing Week 3 with an injury, he put up his best numbers of the year in last week's 21-13 loss to the Vikings. 

That said, while he completed 78.1% of his passes against Minnesota, he still had a modest 204 passing yards and 6.4 yards per pass attempt. Young's receivers can't get separation and the line continues to struggle allowing five sacks to a Minny defense that had just six sacks entering that contest.

Carolina's ground game has also been held in check after a big performance in Week 1 against the Falcons. Over the last three games, the Panthers are averaging just 75.7 rushing yards per game on 3.5 yards per carry. Their inability to stretch the field vertically has allowed opponents to stack the box against the run and RB Miles Sanders has been hindered by a hamstring injury. 

Now they face a Detroit defense that has been very tough against the run. The Lions are 10th in the league in defensive rush EPA and rank second in success rate against the run while holding foes to just 3.0 yards per carry. While the Lions had a tough time generating pressure through the first two weeks of the year they've racked up 12 sacks over the last two games and should be in Young's face all afternoon. 

On the other side of the ball, the Panthers could also be in trouble. Long-term injuries to last year's leading tackler Shaq Thompson and top corner Jaycee Horn have hurt and two other starters in the secondary (CB Donte Jackson and safety Xavier Woods) will likely be out this week as well.

The Panthers are dead last in the league in defensive rush EPA, and while the Lions are efficient when passing the ball, they prefer to play smash-mouth football and rank fourth in the league in rushing play percentage. This offense loves to pound the rock with David Montgomery and has electric first-round rookie Jahmyr Gibbs to provide a change of pace.

This is a big spread, but given how awful the Panthers have looked this year and how poorly they match up against the Lions, I'll back the home side here. 

My best bet: Lions -10 (-110 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Panthers vs Lions same-game parlay

Lions -9.5 (-125)
Montgomery Over 71.5 rushing yards (-110)
Goff Under 0.5 interceptions (-170)

+320 at bet365

Montgomery had 21 carries for 74 yards in Detroit's season opener against the Chiefs and rumbled for 67 yards on 16 carries in Week 2. After missing Week 3 due to a thigh bruise, Montgomery returned to the lineup last week and carried the rock a whopping 32 times for 121 yards. Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson loves to run the ball and it has become apparent that even with Detroit spending a first-round pick on Gibbs, Montgomery will be the lead back. 

The Panthers are surrendering 136.3 rushing yards per game on 4.7 yards per carry and Montgomery should be able to eclipse his rushing yards total — especially if this game goes as oddsmakers expect and the Lions build an early lead, which would result in a positive game script and more rush attempts for Montgomery. 

Lions quarterback Jared Goff went 383 straight passes without an interception but has now thrown a pick in three consecutive games. I'm expecting him to get back to his usual efficient self against a banged-up Panthers secondary.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Panthers vs Lions spread and Over/Under analysis

The lookahead line for this game had the Lions at -7.5 but reopened at -9 following Detroit's win in Week 4. From there, it has steadily crept up to -10 while the total has ticked up from 43.5 to 44. 

The Lions are 3-1 straight up and against the spread to begin the year, but this is the first time more than five points have favored them. In fact, the last time they were even favored by as much as a touchdown was in their season opener against the Jets back in 2018, and they lost that contest by 31 points. Meanwhile, the Panthers are 0-4 SU and 0-3-1 ATS and are coming off a 21-13 loss to the previously-winless Vikings. 

The Panthers have some solid pieces on their young stop unit and are eighth in the league in defensive dropback EPA. However, they've been awful on offense and are averaging just 4.2 yards per play while ranking 25th in the league in both dropback and rush EPA. 

Panthers vs Lions betting trend to know

The Lions have gone 14-5 ATS at home since the start of the 2021 season. Find more NFL betting trends for Panthers vs. Lions.

Panthers vs Lions game info

Panthers vs Lions latest injuries

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