Two of the most successful franchises in NFL history headline a classic non-conference clash when the Green Bay Packers visit the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday Night Football.
Both teams are trying to stay near the top of their respective conference, with Pittsburgh entering Week 8 off a “mini bye” after a bad loss last Thursday. Green Bay, on the other hand, has cooled a bit since its hot start to the schedule.
Here are my early Packers vs Steelers predictions and NFL picks for October 26.
Packers vs Steelers predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
Early SNF spread pick: Packers -3
While I’m always hesitant to fade Mike Tomlin as a home underdog (71% ATS since 2007), I don’t know if a few extra days off can fix this Pittsburgh Steelers defense.
Thursday games often produce strange results, but Pittsburgh was pushed around by the Bengals in Week 7. The issue is up front, with the Steelers unable to slow rival running games.
Cincinnati entered Week 7 as the worst run game in the land yet still rushed for 142 yards. That pushed Pittsburgh to the bottom third of the NFL in run stop ratings.
The Green Bay Packers run one of the most run-heavy playbooks in the league, handing off at the third-highest rate. The Packers are efficient when taking to the ground, sitting No. 6 in EPA per handoff and No. 5 in success rate per run.
Controlling the ball and tempo is big for Green Bay, especially when it comes to taming the Steelers pass rush and limiting turnovers. Pittsburgh thrives on pressure generating takeaways (T-4 with 10) but relies on those high-variance game-changing plays to be competitive. They won't find enough of them on SNF.
Early SNF total pick: Under 44.5
The Steelers offense has been a surprise in the first half of the season. Aaron Rodgers has helped push this attack into the Top 12 of many advanced offensive metrics, including No. 9 in EPA per play.
The offensive line will be tested against Green Bay in Week 8. The pass protection for Rodgers hasn’t been great, with the veteran QB feeling the 10th-highest rate of pressure per dropback and the Steelers pass block win rate sitting dead-last in the NFL.
We’re starting to see the Packers pass rush come to life, most notably Micah Parsons. The big offseason addition recorded three sacks and five QB hits in the win over Arizona on Sunday.
That uptick in output from the pass rush is a huge positive for this defense, which rarely blitzes. Collapsing the pocket with just four rushers on a less-than-mobile QB like Rodgers allows the Cheeseheads to clog up the passing lanes and keep everything in front of them.
I don’t see too many explosive plays in this game and I’m leaning toward the Under 44.5 points with this total just above the key number of 44.
Packers vs Steelers odds
- Packers vs. Steelers spread: Steelers +3
- Packers vs. Steelers moneyline: Packers -158, Steelers +134
- Packers vs. Steelers Over/Under: 44.5
How to watch Packers vs Steelers
- Packers vs. Steelers matchup
- Date: Sunday, October 26, 2025, 8:20 p.m. ET
- City: Pittsburgh, PA
- Venue: Acrisure Stadium
- TV: NBC
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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