NFL Divisional Odds: Opening Lines, Sharp Money & Line Moves

Jan 17, 2021 |

NFL divisional playoff betting is on deck, and NFL divisional round odds are on the board and getting action for the four matchups. Patrick Mahomes and the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs host the surprising Cleveland Browns, while the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and New Orleans Saints meet for the third time this season.

Multiple oddsmakers provided insights on NFL divisional playoff opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting. Covers will update this report with NFL sharp picks vs. public bets and line movement throughout the week.

These are the current NFL Divisional Round odds. Click on each matchup in the table below to get updated in-depth information on the opening lines, sharp money, public betting and odds movement as we get closer to kickoff.

Matchup Time Spread Over/Under
Rams at Packers 4:35 p.m. ET Saturday Packers -7 45
Ravens at Bills 8:15 p.m. ET Saturday Bills -2.5 49.5
Browns at Chiefs 3:05 p.m. ET Sunday Chiefs -8 56
Buccaneers at Saints 6:40 p.m. ET Sunday Saints -2.5 53

Odds courtesy of The SuperBook

Opening line

Packers -7, Over/Under 46.5

Why the line moved

UPDATE 4:10 P.M. ET SATURDAY: Shortly before kickoff, Green Bay is back to the opener of -7 at PointsBet USA, after spending most of the week at -6.5. The Packers are drawing 84 percent of point-spread bets and 88 percent of spread money. The total is down to 45 from a 46.5 opener, with 63 percent of bets/57 percent of money on the Over. On the always-popular prop bet of which player scores the first touchdown, Green Bay wideout Davante Adams (+500) leads the way with 23 percent of tickets, followed by Packers tight end Robert Tonyan (+1,000) at 22 percent of tickets.

UPDATE 1:30 P.M. ET SATURDAY: DraftKings posted the Packers -7 to open and spent most of the week at -6.5, although Green Bay is taking 83 percent of bets and 89 percent of money on the spread. The total opened at 46.5 and today reached its low point of 45, with the Over getting 67 percent of bets, but just 53 percent of money.

UPDATE 11:30 A.M. ET SATURDAY: Green Bay opened as 7-point chalk at FanDuel and spent most of the week at -6.5, where the number remains today. But it's all Packers, with 82 percent of spread bets and 86 percent of spread money on Green Bay. The total fell from 46.5 to 45.5, despite 2/1 tickets and money on the Over.

UPDATE 9 P.M. ET FRIDAY: William Hill US stuck at Packers -7 for about 36 hours, then on Tuesday morning dipped to -6.5 and remains there now. Still, Green Bay is grabbing 83 percent of spread tickets and 80 percent of spread bets, leading all divisional round teams in both categories. 

UPDATE 1 P.M. ET FRIDAY: Those who like to bet totals get a little treat, as this Friday afternoon update is strictly on the total in each of the four games. In this instance, the number at William Hill US opened 47 and by Tuesday was at 45.5, where it remains now. The Over is taking 73 percent of tickets, but money is almost dead even.

UPDATE 2 P.M. ET THURSDAY: BetMGM's New Jersey hub has the Packers 6.5-point favorites, down a tick from the -7 opener, with ticket count 4/1 and money 3/1 on Green Bay. The Rams are seeing shome sharp play, according to BetMGM vice president of trading Jason Scott. The total is down a point to 45.5, even though tickets are running 2/1 and money 4/1 on the Over.

UPDATE 8:30 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: William Hill US moved Green Bay from -7 to -6.5 Tuesday morning. "The sharps definitely took 7 and we went to 6.5," WillHill director of trading Nick Bogdanovich said. "At 6.5, all the money is on the Packers from the masses — teasers, moneyline parlays, straight parlays, straight bets. The masses may shove it back up to 7." The total is down to 45.5 from a 47 opener, the only total to drop among this weekend's four games.

UPDATE 7:30 P.M. ET TUESDAY: The Packers opened -7 at DraftKings and visited -6.5 a couple of times the past couple of days, but are now back at the opener. Point-spread ticket count and money are both running about 5/1 on Green Bay. The total is down a point to 45.5, with 76 percent of bets on the Over, but just 54 percent of dollars on the Over.

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Los Angeles and its banged-up quarterback corps somehow went to Seattle on Wild Card Weekend and knocked out the third-seeded Seahawks 30-20 Saturday. Jared Goff didn't start for the Rams against Seattle, due to his thumb injury, but backup John Wolford suffered a neck injury in the first quarter, and Goff had to jump in. On Sunday night, both were questionable for the Saturday night divisional game.

Meanwhile, Aaron Rodgers and top-seeded Green Bay had a bye week and got some rest.

"Not much action to report there," Murray said Sunday night, noting the line was stable at Packers -7. "We were happy to see this game in the first time slot of the weekend. If that was the last game of the weekend, every parlay would've gone to the Packers, and it could've been a huge-exposure game."

Opening line

Bills -2.5, Over/Under 49.5

Why the line moved

UPDATE 8 P.M. ET SATURDAY: With kickoff looming, FanDuel has the Bills at -2.5, after opening -3 and getting as low as -1.5 on Monday. The number has been stable at -2.5 since Wednesday, with tickets and money running just beyond 2/1 on Buffalo. The total opened at 49.5, peaked at 50.5, bottomed out at 49 and is now 49.5 again, with tickets and money both in the 3/1 range on the Over.

UPDATE 1:30 P.M. ET SATURDAY: Buffalo initially went from -2.5 to -3 at DraftKings, then dropped to -1.5 by Monday evening, rebounded to -3 Thursday night and is now back at the -2.5 opener. The Bills are attracting 73 percent of tickets and 63 percent of money on the spread. The total hit its low of 49 this morning, after opening 49.5 and peaking at 50.5, and it's currently back at 49.5, with 72 percent of bets/74 percent of money on the Over.

UPDATE 11:30 A.M. ET SATURDAY: The Bills opened -3 at FanDuel and got as low as -1.5 Monday evening, and the've been stuck at -2.5 since Wednesday morning.. Point-spread tickets and money are both running about 2/1 on Buffalo. The total went from 49.5 to 50.5, then dipped to 49 and is now 49.5, with weather expected to play a role tonight. Still, the Over is getting 72% of bets/74% of dollars.

UPDATE 9 P.M. ET FRIDAY: Buffalo ticked up to -3 this morning at William Hill US, after opening -2.5, spending some time at -2 earlier in the week and going to -2.5 late Tuesday night. The Bills are attracting 62 percent of tickets and 63 percent of cash on the spread.

UPDATE 1 P.M. ET FRIDAY: The total in this AFC clash was pinned to 50 all week at William Hill US, before dipping to 49.5 Friday, with weather at least part of the impetus. Buffalo could see some snow and winds of 15-25 mph, with perhaps stronger gusts, during Saturday night's game. Still, the Over is getting 71 percent of tickets and 59 percent of money.

UPDATE 2:30 P.M. ET THURSDAY: Buffalo went from -2.5 to -2 to -2.5 at BetMGM New Jersey, where the Bills are attracting 67 percent of point-spread tickets, but point-spread money is running dead even. Jason Scott, vice president of trading for BetMGM, said Baltimore is seeing some sharp play. The total is also stable at 49.5, though the Over is taking 75 percent of bets/82 percent of cash. 

UPDATE 8:30 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: William Hill US spent 19 hours at Bills -2, from Monday afternoon until late Tuesday morning, but otherwise has been at the opener of Bills -2.5 this week. "The early money was sharp on the Ravens, and it went down to 2," WillHill's Nick Bogdanovich said. "The move back to 2.5 was pretty universal, could be weather-related. Buffalo is strictly a passing team now, wind would hurt them, but I don’t think snow would be an issue." Bogdanovich was alluding to a 50 percent chance of snowfall Saturday evening. The total is pinned to 50 at William Hill US.

UPDATE 7:30 P.M. ET TUESDAY: Buffalo opened -2.5 at DraftKings and dipped to -1.5 by Monday evening, then rebounded to the opener while attracting 75 percent of bets and 61 percent of money on the spread. The total bumped from 49.5 to 50.5 to 50, with 81 percent of early bets/87 percent of early money on the Over.

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Josh Allen and No. 2 seed Buffalo stemmed Indianapolis' late comeback bid to claim a 30-27 victory Saturday, the Bills' first playoff win since the 1995-96 season. Fifth-seeded Baltimore went to No. 4 seed Tennesee on Sunday and dug itself a 10-0 first-quarter hole, but didn't give up another point until the fourth quarter in a 20-13 victory.

"The Bills are still at -2.5. That's gonna be a huge-handle game," Murray said. "The public loves both teams right now. Great two-way volume."

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Opening line

Chiefs -9.5, Over/Under 54

Why the line moved

UPDATE 2:45 P.M. ET SUNDAY: Shortly before kickoff, this line is dropping like a rock everywhere, including FanDuel, where the number tumbled from Chiefs -9.5 this morning to -7.5 now, from an opener of -10 last Sunday. That said, Kansas City holds a slight edge in ticket count at 52 percent and is taking 60 percent of money on the spread. The total moved from 55.5 to 57.5 by midweek, but it's now back down to the opener, despite tickets and money running about 2/1 on the Over.

UPDATE 11:45 A.M. ET SUNDAY: DraftKings opened Chiefs -9.5, spent most of the week at -10, then bounced around a lot the past 24 hours: the line dropped to -8.5, rose up to -10.5 and is now -9.5. The Browns are taking 56 percent of spread tickets, and money is running dead even. The total went from 55 to 58 by Thursday, then receded to 56.5 by this morning, with tickets and money both about 2/1 on the Over.

UPDATE 10:45 A.M. ET SUNDAY: Kansas City hasn't moved off -10 all week at BetMGM New Jersey, but that line could tick down today, if betting splits are an indicator. Cleveland has an almost 2/1 edge in point-spread tickets and money. The total opened at 54.5 and is currently 56.5, with 58 percent of bets/73 percent of cash on the Over.

UPDATE 11:30 P.M. ET SATURDAY: FanDuel was pinned to Chiefs -10 all week, then late this afternoon went to -9.5. The betting splits bear out the move, with the underdog Browns taking 57 percent of bets and 54 percent of money on the spread. The total opened at 55.5, peaked at 57.5 Wednesday and returned to 57 Thursday afternoon, with the Over getting 68 percent of bets/72 percent of dollars.

UPDATE 11:30 A.M. ET SATURDAY: The Chiefs are pinned to -10 at PointsBet USA, not moving off that number all week. "Good two-way action on this game, with 53 percent of spread bets coming in on the Browns, but 52 percent of  spread handle coming in on the Chiefs." The total moved from 55.5 to 57, with 71 percent of bets/76 percent of money on the Over.

UPDATE 9 P.M. ET FRIDAY: This contest is the closest to two-way action at William Hill US, where ticket count is dead even and the Chiefs are landing 55 percent of money on the spread. Kansas City opened -9.5, stuck at -10 all week and inched back to -9.5 Friday night. William Hill US also took a $50,000 wager on Chiefs moneyline -500, to win $10,000.

UPDATE 1 P.M. ET FRIDAY: The total on this matchup opened 55.5 at William Hill US, got to 57 by Wednesday and briefly touched 57.5 Thursday, before returning to 57. The Over is landing 72 percent of tickets and 87 percent of cash. "People remember what they saw last, and they saw a Browns team that wasn’t stopping Ben (Roethlisberger) and a team that was moving the ball on Pittsburgh," WillHill director of trading Nick Bogdanovich said. "Then there’s Kansas City, they’ll be well-rested with every gimmicky play you can imagine. They’ll be running shovel passes and end-arounds, they’re very creative. I can understand the move on this total, and they’ve been betting the Over nonstop."

UPDATE 2 P.M. ET THURSDAY: The Chiefs haven't budged off -10 at BetMGM's New Jersey hub, with the underdog Browns taking 66 percent of spread bets and 59 percent of spread dollars. The total, however, is on the move, already at 57.5 from a 54.5 opener, with the Over drawing 78 percent of bets/89 percent of money.

UPDATE 8:30 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: Kansas City is up to -10 from a -9.5 opener at William Hill US. "It’s possible that the Browns could be a public 'dog, with the spread as high as it is," WillHill director of trading Nick Bogdanovich said. "Right now, we’re dead even on the straight bets and the parlays for this one. We’re high on the Browns moneyline. Where we’re high on Kansas City is teasers and moneyline parlays. But I think Cleveland will hold (its) own with the money." The total opened 55.5 and is up to 57.

UPDATE 7:30 P.M. ET TUESDAY: DraftKings opened Kansas City -9.5 late Sunday night and went to -10 late Monday morning, where the line remains now. The Browns are actually getting 56 percent of early spread bets, while the Chiefs are drawing 60 percent of early spread handle. The total opened 55 at DK and is up to 56, with 77 percent of bets/89 percent of money on the Over.

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Cleveland punched No. 3 seed Pittsburgh in the mouth by taking a 28-0 first-quarter lead, largely aided by three turnovers, then held the Steelers enough in check to notch a 48-37 victory Sunday night. Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City, meanwhile, rested up for the divisional round, getting a bye week as the AFC's No. 1 seed.

"The Chiefs are up to -10 from -9.5, but that could come down," Murray said. "I think the Browns will be a very square 'dog on Sunday."

Opening line

Saints -5.5, Over/Under 49.5

Why the line moved

UPDATE 6:20 P.M. ET SUNDAY: PointsBet USA pegged the Saints -3.5 at the opener, quickly went to -3 and stayed there all weeek before dipping to -2.5 today. The Bucs are getting 51 percent of spread bets, while the Saints are landing 66 percent of spread money. The total is out to 53 from a 49.5 opener, with 65 percent of bets/61 percent of cash on the Over. On the popular prop of player to score the first touchdown, Saints running back Alvin Kamara (+500) is the runaway ticket leader, taking 26.5 percent of bets, followed by teammate Michael Thomas (+950) at 13.4 percent.

UPDATE 4:55 P.M. ET SUNDAY: FanDuel opened the Saints -3, went to -3.5 and back to -3 last Sunday night, stuck at -3 all week, then ticked to -2.5 this morning. It's two-way action on the point spread, with ticket count dead even and 53 percent of money on New Orleans. The total shifted from 49.5 to 51.5 early in the week, hit 52.5 earlier today and just hit its peak of 53.5 in the last few minutes. But the betting splits are pretty interesting, with 76 percent of tickets on the Over, but 61 percent of money on the Under.

UPDATE 11:45 A.M. ET SUNDAY: The Saints quickly and briefly got to -4.5 from a -3.5 opener at DraftKings, then dropped to -3, where they spent pretty much all week. This morning, New Orleans dipped to -2.5, but rose back to -3 in the past half hour as two-way action continued, with 52 percent of bets on the Buccaneers and 52 percent of money on the Saints. The total initially fell from 51.5 to 49.5, then climbed to 52.5 by Thursday and got to 53 this morning, with the Over landing 77 percent of bets/80 percent of dollars.

UPDATE 10:45 A.M. ET SUNDAY: New Orleans opened -3.5 at BetMGM's New Jersey hub and spent much of the week at -3, with 53 percent of bets/59 percent of money on the Saints. The total is up to 51.5 from 50.5, with ticket count 3/1 and money 5/1 on the Over.

UPDATE 11:30 P.M. ET SATURDAY: All the movement on this number at FanDuel came in the first three hours last Sunday night, with New Orleans opening -3, going to -3.5, then back to -3 and staying there all week. Underdog Tampa Bay is attracting 55 percent of tickets/54 percent of money. The total opened at 49.5 and on Thursday reached 52, where it remains tonight, with 78 percent of tickets/81 percent of cash on the Over.

UPDATE 11:30 A.M. ET SATURDAY: The Bucs opened -3.5 at PointsBet USA and quicky shifted to -3, where the number stuck all week. "Another game with great two-way. We are currently seeing 53 percent of spread bets come in on the Bucs, but 67 percent of spread handle come in on the Saints." The total opened at 49 and immediately shot to 51, and it's been stable at 52 since Monday night, with tickets and money 2/1 on the Over.

UPDATE 9 P.M. ET FRIDAY: William Hill US opened the Saints -4 Sunday night, got to -3 within a few hours and hasn't moved since, with Tampa Bay taking 51 percent of tickets and New Orleans drawing 73 percent of money. A chunk of that money came in the form of a $120,000 bet in Nevada on Saints -3 (-120).

UPDATE 1 P.M. ET FRIDAY: This is another total on the rise at William Hill US, going from 50 to 52 by Monday and sticking there through this morning. Ticket count is about 3/1 and money 2/1 on the Over. "I’m not surprised by this move," William Hill US director of trading Nick Bogdanovich said. "It’s a fast surface indoors, so both offenses should be clicking. Tampa’s defense has fallen off, (even) Washington moved on Tampa. The Sunday games look like two dead Overs to me."

UPDATE 2 P.M. ET THURSDAY: This game is where the big money is landing at BetMGM, which already has a $250,000 on Saints -3 and a $250,000 parlay of Saints -3 to Bills -2. New Orleans opened -3.5 and is currently at -3 on two-way action, with 52 percent of tickets on the Buccaneers and 55 percent of money on the Saints. The total moved from 50.5 to 51.5, with 73 percent of tickets and 78 percent of money on the Over.

UPDATE 8:30 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: William Hill US installed New Orleans as a 4-point favorite Sunday evening, quickly moved to -3.5 and then within a few hours to -3, where the number remains now. "I’m surprised that this line is down to 3," WillHill director of trading Nick Bogdanovich said. "Those games in the regular season weren’t fluky. It’s just years and years of good performance. I don’t know why they think this matchup will be any different for Tampa Bay. I think New Orleans is going to go in with a lot of confidence, thinking that they’re going to do it to them again, whereas Tampa has to do something different. We’ll see, maybe there’ll be a flood of New Orleans money later in the week." The total is up two points to 52. 

UPDATE 7:30 P.M. ET TUESDAY: The Saints opened -3.5 at DraftKings and jumped to -4.5 within 30 minutes Sunday night, but the line then dipped to -2.5 Monday morning before stabilizing at -3. Early bettors are leaning toward the road underdogs, with the Buccaneers attracting 56 percent of spread bets and 59 percent of spread money. The total bounced from 51.5 to 49.5 and back to 51.5, with tickets and money approaching 4/1 on the Over.

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Tom Brady and fifth-seeded Tampa Bay got more than they could've expected from backup Washington QB Taylor Heinicke, but prevailed 31-23 on Wild Card Saturday. On Wild Card Sunday, No. 2 seed New Orleans slogged to a 21-9 win over Chicago, setting up the third meeting this season between these NFC South rivals.

The Saints won both regular-season clashes, opening the season with a 34-23 home victory, then posting a 38-3 rout at Tampa on Nov 8. But early action was swift on the underdog Bucs.

"We opened Saints -5.5 and the sharp guys flooded us with Bucs bets, so that disappeared quickly," Murray said Sunday night. "We moved down to -3.5."

The total was also on the move Sunday night, jumping up two points to 51.5.

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Where can I bet on the NFL?

Whether it’s in Las Vegas or online, every sportsbook under the sun offers Week 17 NFL point spreads, plus a cornucopia of other NFL odds. Check out the NFL football odds at the best sportsbooks available where you live.

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