The NFL Divisional Playoffs get underway this weekend, including the Baltimore Ravens facing off against Buffalo Bills. This should be a terrific matchup between last year's NFL MVP Lamar Jackson and an MVP candidate this season in Josh Allen.
NFL betting lines have the Bills installed as 2.5-point home favorites with the Over/Under set at 50.
We break down the NFL odds with our best free Ravens vs. Bills picks and predictions for Saturday, January 12 with kickoff at 8:15 p.m. ET.
Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills Betting Preview
It's expected to be a cool night at Bills Stadium, with temperatures between 28 and 37 degrees, winds reaching up to 10 miles per hour and a 37 percent chance of precipitation. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.
Ravens: Matthew Judon LB (Probable), Davontae Harris CB (Questionable), D.J. Fluker G (Questionable), Marcus Peters CB (Questionable), Ben Bredeson G (Doubtful), Tavon Young CB (Out), Ronnie Stanley T (Out), Nick Boyle TE (Out).
Bills: Darryl Johnson DE (Questionable), Stefon Diggs WR (Probable), Cole Beasley WR (Probable), Tremaine Edmonds LB (Probable), Ed Oliver DT (Probable), Justin Zimmer DT (Probable), Zack Moss RB (Out), Cody Ford T (Out), EJ Gaines CB (Out), Star Lotulelei DT (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting Trend to Know
The Ravens are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as an underdog. Find more NFL betting trends for Ravens vs. Bills.
Against the Spread (ATS) Pick
The Bills have been one of the best teams in the league to bet on this season, going 8-1 ATS in their last nine games and winning seven games in a row.
That said, the Ravens are also red-hot, reeling off six wins in a row and going 7-0 ATS in their last seven contests. One winning streak has to end in this contest, and Baltimore's matchup advantage may hold the edge.
The Ravens offense has played much better in recent weeks with quarterback Lamar Jackson beginning to lean on the running skills that make him so tough to defend. Baltimore leads the league with 194.5 rushing yards per game and will be going up against a Bills defense that has gotten gashed on the ground. The Bills allow 122.2 rushing yards per contest and 4.7 yards per carry. They're also coming off a game against the Colts where they gave up 163 yards on the ground.
Meanwhile, the Bills offense has been focused on the passing game led by QB Josh Allen and wide receiver Stefon Diggs. Buffalo ranks third in the league in passing yards with 289.5 per game and Allen threw for 37 touchdowns while Diggs led the league in receiving.
However, the Ravens have an excellent pass defense and one of the best cornerback duos in the league with Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Peters. Baltimore ranks sixth in the league in passing defense, allows the second-fewest yards per pass attempt, and holds opposing QBs to a passer rating of 87.
With Baltimore's dominating ground game going up against a weak Bills run defense, and the Ravens' terrific secondary limiting Buffalo's vertical game, take the underdogs with the points.
PREDICTION: Baltimore +2.5 (-110)
Baltimore has allowed just 10.8 points per game over their last four contests, but with the exception of last week's matchup against Tennessee, their other three foes during that span were among the worst offenses in the league.
The last time the Ravens faced a decent offense was in Week 14 against the Browns which ended up being a 47-42 shootout.
The Bills have a high-scoring offense that ranks second in the league with 31.1 ppg. They've also had some decent offensive performances against quality defenses. Buffalo put up 27 points against the Colts in the Wild Card round, scored 26 points against Pittsburgh, 34 versus San Francisco, and 35 against the Rams. All four of those teams rank among the Top-7 teams in the league when it comes to defensive DVOA according to Football Outsiders.
The betting trends bare that out, with Buffalo going 4-1 to the Over in their last five games against teams with a winning record. With Baltimore averaging 34.3 ppg over their last six games, back the Over.
PREDICTION: Over 50 (-110)
The Bills have struggled to defend against tight ends, ranking second-last in the league in yards allowed to the position during the regular season. They also got burned by tight ends last week with the Colts trio of Jack Doyle, Trey Burton, and Mo Alie-Cox combining for 14 catches and 136 yards.
Baltimore tight end Mark Andrews is one of Jackson's favorite targets but has struggled with drops the last two weeks. That said, he was still targeted six times last week against the Titans and had seven passes thrown to him the previous week versus the Bengals.
That means he should continue to get plenty of looks on Saturday. Keep in mind that prior to that Week 17 matchup with Cincy, Andrews had reeled off six consecutive games with over 60 yards receiving. With the Over/Under on his receiving yards total set at just 54.5, take the Over.
PREDICTION: Mark Andrews Over 54.5 receiving yards (-120)
Ravens vs Bills Betting Card
- Baltimore +2.5 (-110)
- Over 50 (-110)
- Mark Andrews Over 54.5 receiving yards (-120)
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