Week 18 of the NFL season is here, and postseason positioning isn't all that’s being decided on the field with several players chasing down contract incentives, records, and statistical milestones.
Highlighting players looking to pad their stat line in the final week of the regular season is a helpful handicapping tool for NFL player props, and I’ve got four players with added motivation with this week's NFL picks.
Week 18 Milestone props
Myles Garrett to record a sack
Yes -250 at bet365
Cleveland Browns superstar Myles Garrett was held without a sack in Week 17 and remains one short of setting a new all-time, single-season record. He’s also just a half sack short of tying the record shared by Hall of Famer Michael Strahan and Pittsburgh Steelers edge rusher T.J. Watt at 22.5.
Garrett picked up a pair of sacks in Week 1 against Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow, and while the Bengals have allowed just 34 sacks through 16 games, they have the worst pass block win rate and sixth-lowest PFF pass block grade.
The -250 odds have an implied probability of 71.4%. Garrett will break the record on Sunday.
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Contract incentives
Sam Darnold Over 241.5 passing yards
Seattle Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold needs 150 passing yards to unlock a $500,000 contract incentive for reaching 4,000 for the campaign, and a Week 18 date with the San Francisco 49ers shouldn’t hold him up.
Darnold has aired it out for 150 or more yards in 14 of 16 games, and the San Francisco defense has allowed at least 150 passing yards in 15 of 16.
Of course, there are three other $500,000 incentives within reach for Darnold. First, he needs to finish the season with a 67.5 completion percentage and 100 passing rating, both of which are feasible.
He’s also three touchdown passes short of the 28 benchmark. However, this is a little trickier, as Darnold has thrown for 3+ TDs in just three games this season.
Rico Dowdle anytime touchdown
It’s already been a lucrative first season with the Carolina Panthers for running back Rico Dowdle, as he’s already pocketed a cool $1.75 million in incentives.
There’s more on the table ahead of the final week of the season, too. Dowdle is a touchdown short of eight for the year, which would unlock another $250,000 bonus.
This sets up as a tough matchup, with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers allowing just 14 touchdowns to opposing rushers all season, and Dowdle has a single score across his past six games.
Still, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Carolina head coach Dave Canales call Dowdle’s number near the goal line on Saturday.
Tony Pollard Over 67.5 rushing yards
Tennessee Titans running back Tony Pollard needs 66 rushing yards against the Jacksonville Jaguars to earn a $250,000 contract incentive. He’s also only two rushing touchdowns shy of an additional $200,000 bonus.
Jacksonville can take top spot in the AFC South with a win, and the Jags also have an outside shot at the No. 1 seed in the conference if the Denver Broncos and New England Patriots both lose.
Of course, Jacksonville has also allowed the third-fewest yards per carry in the NFL this season.
Still, this total is two yards above the required benchmark for Pollard to earn the bonus, and he’s racked up 452 yards at 5.8 per tote over the past four games.
