Lions vs Cowboys Week 7 Picks and Predictions: St. Brown Shines in Dallas

The Detroit Lions head to AT&T Stadium to take on the Dallas Cowboys in Week 7 of NFL action on Sunday afternoon.

The Cowboys will try to bounce back from their second loss of the season, and franchise quarterback Dak Prescott returns to the lineup against a struggling Lions squad that's fresh off a bye. NFL betting lines opened with the Cowboys as 7-point home favorites, but money has come in on Detroit, with this line shortening to -6.5.

Here are my best free NFL picks and predictions for Lions vs. Cowboys on October 24.

Lions vs Cowboys best odds

Lions vs Cowboys picks and predictions

The Dallas Cowboys do an excellent job of bringing the heat against opposing quarterbacks. Still, Detroit Lions' QB Jared Goff actually had the third-best completion percentage (68.1%) in the league last season against the blitz.

That has a lot to do with his quick decision-making and accuracy on shorter throws which benefits someone like wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown, who doesn't run deep routes and usually lines up in the slot.  

St. Brown was banged up in his last game, hauling in just four catches in Detroit's shutout loss to the Patriots in Week 5. However, the sophomore tied the NFL record for the most consecutive games with at least eight receptions (8) earlier this season, and he'll be closer to full strength after a bye week.

Expect St. Brown to continue to get the lion's share of targets (pun absolutely intended), especially with D.J. Chark ruled out and Josh Reynolds questionable with a bum ankle. Take the Over 6.5 receptions for St. Brown. 

My best bet: Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 6.5 catches (-115 at PointsBet)

Lions vs Cowboys spread analysis

The Lions and Cowboys were two of the league's trendiest against the spread bets until they crashed down to earth in their previous games. 

The Cowboys had gone 4-0 SU and ATS with Cooper Rush as their starting quarterback before losing 26-17 to the undefeated Eagles last week.

Rush wasn't exactly winning games for the Cowboys so much as not losing them. That changed against the Eagles, with Rush completing just 47.4% of his passes for 181 yards with three interceptions. 

Dallas will be glad to have Dak Prescott back under center today for the first time since their Week 1 loss to the Bucs. 

The Lions are just 1-4 SU (3-2 ATS), but they were extremely competitive in all of their games until their crushing 29-0 defeat on the road against the Patriots in Week 5. They used their bye week to get back to basics, ramping up intensity in practice while also giving several starters a chance to get healthier. 

Despite getting shutout by the Pats, the Lions have actually been very dangerous with the ball and rank fourth in the league with 6.2 yards per play while ranking fifth in offensive rush DVOA. 

Backup running back Jamaal Williams has been productive with D'Andre Swift sidelined by a shoulder injury. Swift is listed as questionable for Sunday and would give a boost to the attack if he returns. 

Unfortunately for Detroit fans, as explosive as the Lions have looked on offense, they have been awful on the other side of the ball. Their defense ranks last in the league in DVOA and EPA/play.  

Lions vs Cowboys Over/Under analysis

Any quarterback controversy in Dallas was squashed last week in Rush's brutal performance against the Eagles. Prescott can be a bit inconsistent, but he has a far more talented arm than Rush and has averaged 302.9 passing yards per game over the last three years. 

The Cowboys' stop unit is holding opponents to just 16.3 points per game, but Detroit's offense is actually a pretty tough matchup for them. Dallas loves to blitz and leads the league with a 32.4% pressure rate. However, Goff tends to use quick and short throws, which can defuse a strong pass rush, and Detroit's stout offensive line is the strength of this team. 

Detroit also has a formidable ground game, while the Cowboys rank a modest 17th in the league in rush defense DVOA.  

Lions vs Cowboys betting trend to know

The betting trends are strongly in opposite directions for this matchup, so something has to give. The Cowboys are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games against teams with a losing record, but the Lions are 5-0 ATS in their previous five against teams with a winning record.

Meanwhile, the Over is 6-1 in Detroit's last seven games, while the Under is 5-1-1 in the Cowboys' previous seven. Find more NFL betting trends for Lions vs. Cowboys.

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