Josh Allen Divisional Round Spotlight: Player Props for the Divisional Round

It wasn't a clean outing but Josh Allen again put up huge numbers in the Bills' Wild Card win over the 'Phins. With a massive clash with the Bengals ahead, Allen takes focus in our Divisional Round spotlight picks.

Last Updated: Jan 22, 2023 12:00 PM ET Read Time: 4 min

Critics have doubted Josh Allen at times this season, but the Buffalo Bills QB ended 2022 on a tear then put up a huge game against the Miami Dolphins in the Wild Card round. Now, he gets to face another shaky passing defense when the Bills host the Cincinnati Bengals in the Divisional Round on Sunday.

You could have questioned how efficient Allen was last weekend but there’s no doubting his final numbers, including three touchdowns and 352 yards passing. That’s the kind of production that always hits the Over on prop bets.

Win or lose, Buffalo will let Allen throw the ball and attack on offense this weekend. I’ll be targeting the Bills quarterback across the board in my free NFL picks below. For more, check out our Bengals vs. Bills picks and predictions, as well as our Bengals vs. Bills props.

Josh Allen prop pick and same-game parlay

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Josh Allen best bet

No matter what he’s done wrong in certain games this season, Josh Allen keeps finding the end zone with regularity. He threw for 35 touchdowns during the regular season, ranking second in the NFL. He tossed three more scores in Buffalo’s 34-31 win over the Dolphins last Sunday. 

Counting the playoff game, Allen has thrown two or more touchdowns in six of his last seven appearances. He threw at least one touchdown in 15 of his 16 regular season games and threw for two or more 11 times. The man knows how to find his receivers and get them the ball in position to score.

Now, we all know that playoff football is supposed to be a different animal, with lower-scoring games and tighter defense. But it’s hard to imagine the Bengals shutting down Allen and the Bills to such an extent that he can’t throw two touchdowns.

Teams have been throwing against the Cincinnati defense all year long, as the Bengals are giving up 229.1 yards per game through the air. Cincinnati has been good at limiting completions, with opponents connecting on a league-low 58.9% of passes, but corners Cam Taylor-Britt and Eli Apple have been vulnerable to big plays. 

Allen should have all of his major weapons available to him on Sunday. Both Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis are healthy, as is tight end Dawson Knox. Allen threw 24 of his 35 touchdowns his season to those three players, and even third wideout Isaiah McKenzie looks healthy after fully participating in practice for the Bills this week.

When you look at the overall numbers for the Bengals' defense, they manage to get by with their secondary. But the matchups on the outside simply aren’t good for Cincinnati here, and Allen should be able to push the ball down the field, particularly to Diggs, who should outclass whoever is covering him.

This should be a close game and Buffalo should be running its normal offense for nearly the entire 60 minutes. Allen will try to take control of this game, and even if that means he makes some mistakes, it also all but guarantees he makes some big plays as well. The Bills will put up points, and Allen will hit the Over on his passing touchdowns prop.

Prop: Josh Allen Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-150)

Over 1.5 pass TDs

Over 279.5 passing yards

Longest completion 40+ yards

So, we expect Allen to make big plays and find the end zone a couple of times. That gives us a great basis for making a same-game parlay that could earn us a nice payday if the Bills have a big day on offense. 

Allen is set up well to make some big plays down the field on Sunday, and that’s influencing the rest of my parlay here. His passing yardage total is around 279.5 at most sites, and this looks like an excellent spot to take the Over. 

I’m not touching Allen’s completions number, as the Bengals have been quite good at stopping opponents from connecting on pass after pass. On the other hand, they’ve given up plenty of big plays — opposing teams average 11.2 yards per completion against Cincinnati — and that should propel Allen toward his yardage total.

Let’s stay focused on that big play potential as we wrap up our SGP. Allen has thrown at least one pass for 40+ yards in seven of his 16 regular season games and did it again against Miami last week. With a matchup that favors the Bills looking to connect on some deep balls, Allen to have a completion of 40+ yards looks like a great way to round out our parlay.

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