It's playoff time, and there’s something about every game, but there aren’t many as hotly anticipated as Sunday’s NFL Divisional Round clash between the Bengals and Bills.
When two of the NFL’s most dangerous high-powered offenses meet, you know it’s going to be an exciting tilt — not only that, but it’s going to offer us plenty of opportunities to cash prop bets.
Let’s get stuck right into this one, where we could well see a shootout between both teams. Don’t miss our NFL prop picks for the Cincinnati Bengals vs. Buffalo Bills.
Bengals vs Bills Divisional Round prop picks
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Bengals vs Bills Divisional Round props
Cut to the Chase
I’ll be honest, Tre’Davious White scares me a lot and he’ll be with Ja’Marr Chase for large periods of Sunday’s game. Despite that, I’m backing Chase to get the better of White, at least once, and find the endzone for the Bengals.
With a points total set at 49.0 and the general consensus around this game being that it’ll be a shootout, plus the fact the spread indicates that the Bengals might be chasing, it makes sense to target the Bengals’ best wideout. He’s scored 10 touchdowns in the regular and postseason this year, despite an extended break due to injury, and has scored in four of his previous five games. When the Bengals are in trouble, Joe Burrow looks to Chase.
In his last five games, he’s had 64 targets. The volume is there, the gamescript could be there, and the talent most definitely is there. At +130 it’s worth backing Chase to score, you’ll get a better price than taking on his receiving yards line which sits at 83.5.
Ja’Marr Chase prop: Anytime touchdown (+130)
The one who Knox
There was no way that we weren’t going to include Dawson Knox in here. This season, he’s done exactly what he did last year: Have a fairly unspectacular start to the season before exploding down the stretch.
He’s scored in each of his past five games and there’s a real temptation to put him in again, especially at odds of +210, but I think there’s better value to be had on the Bills’ offense, as you’ll see in a minute.
Instead, I’m suggesting that we play it safe and back Knox to go over his receiving yard line, which is set at just 35.5 yards. That is a number that he’s surpassed in three of his past five games.
The most appealing stat is that in four of these past five games, he’s had at least five targets, which again shows us that the volume is there. He’s an integral part of this offense come playoff time and we can expect another dominant performance from the former Mississippi man.
Dawson Knox prop: Over 35.5 receiving yards (-110)
Clear for Shakir
We’re expecting another big passing day from Josh Allen, and when you look at this Bills offense there are a lot of pass-catching candidates who offer viable routes into a potential anytime touchdown wager.
Stefon Diggs is the obvious choice, as is Gabe Davis, but with both being a best price of +160 or less, I’m going to stay away. Instead, we’ll be wagering on Khalil Shakir at +850, an absolutely huge price for the rookie receiver.
Last week, he was tied third for targets for the Bills, alongside both Cole Beasley and Knox. Admittedly, Isaiah McKenzie was out and is expected to return on Sunday, but Shakir was great in his place. He caught three of five targets, for 51 yards, showing big play ability on one catch, and on another day he’d have been able to run it into the endzone.
With this being a potential shootout, I think we could see some of the Bills’ lesser-known wideouts coming into the game, and given how close he was to scoring last weekend, I’m keen to bet on him this week when the odds are as big as +850.
The odds imply a 10.5% chance that he scores, and I’d argue it should be double that, given everything we know heading into the game.
Khalil Shakir prop: Anytime touchdown (+850)