The Jacksonville Jaguars will look to hold on to their lead in the AFC South as they host the lowly New York Jets on Sunday afternoon.
New York is showing less and less down the stretch, while Jacksonville is coming into its own, which is why I’m taking the home team to cover in my early Jets vs. Jaguars predictions and NFL picks.
Jets vs Jaguars predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
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Early Jets vs Jaguars spread pick: Jaguars -11.5
The New York Jets had covered in five straight games before losing 34-10 to the Dolphins on Sunday, but that loss showed just how far the New York defense has fallen since the trade deadline.
It no longer has the talent to contend with explosive offensive weapons, let alone better teams that have a larger complement of threats. Six straight teams have scored 20+ points against the Jets, who have allowed an average of 27.7 ppg in that span.
Meanwhile, the Jacksonville Jaguars have turned it on down the stretch, playing well on both sides of the ball during what is now a four-game winning streak.
Jacksonville has covered in all of those games, three of which were blowouts of 17+ points. And with wins over the Chargers and Colts in that stretch, this isn’t just a matter of beating up on cupcakes.
Jacksonville is averaging 30.3 ppg over its last six outings, going 5-1 in that stretch. The Jets neither have the defensive talent to hold the Jaguars down, nor their own offensive weapons to keep this game reasonably close if it’s a shootout.
I’m expecting the Jaguars to coast to victory at home, and I’m happy to take them to cover a spread that stays under two full touchdowns.
Early Jets vs Jaguars total pick: Over 41.5
The combination of what the Jaguars have been doing on offense and New York’s defensive struggles also has me leaning towards the Over in this game.
Jacksonville has scored at least 35 points in each of its last two home games. Trevor Lawrence has tossed multiple touchdown passes in each of his last three contests, while Travis Etienne Jr. has scored six total touchdowns in the last five weeks. This is an offense that can cook, especially against weaker NFL defenses.
The Jets were never great at containing opposing offenses, other than a brief spark right before they traded away Sauce Gardner and other talent. Overall, opponents are scoring 26.8 ppg, a number that is only rising late in the season.
The Jets will have to contribute something to hit the total here, but thankfully, we’ve at least seen a little consistency out of the New York offense, which hasn’t been held below 10 points in any of its last six games.
That doesn’t promise much, but combined with what Jacksonville should do with the ball, it’s enough for me to feel confident about hitting this total.
Jets vs Jaguars odds
- Jets vs. Jaguars spread: Jaguars -11.5
- Jets vs. Jaguars moneyline: Jets +600, Jaguars -800
- Jets vs. Jaguars Over/Under: 41.5
How to watch Jets vs Jaguars
- Jets vs. Jaguars matchup
- Date: Sunday, December 14, 2025, 1:00 p.m. ET
- City: Jacksonville, FL
- Venue: EverBank Stadium
- TV: CBS
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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