Jaguars vs Texans Odds, Picks, and Predictions Week 12: Don't Overlook Zay in Jags Offense

Despite being in and out of the Jaguars lineup due to injury, wideout Zay Jones has proven his worth to the offense and should get a handful of looks against a poor Texans pass defense in Week 12. We break down his props in our NFL picks below.

Nov 26, 2023 • 08:09 ET • 4 min read
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This article contains predictions for an old game!

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The “revenge” angle doesn’t hold as much weight when it comes to NFL odds as you think.

And while revenge may be on the minds of the Jacksonville Jaguars when they face the rival Houston Texans in the Week 12 odds, it’s likely “embarrassment” is the more motivating factor.

Jacksonville is aiming to erase the shame of a 37-17 loss to Houston back in Week 3 and really right an AFC South series that has seen the Jaguars struggle against the Texans.

Going back to 2018, Jacksonville has won only once in the past 11 meetings with Houston and is a dreadful 3-8 ATS in those games.

I run down the spread and Over/Under total for this AFC South showdown and give my best NFL picks for Jaguars vs. Texans on November 26.

Jaguars vs Texans odds

Jaguars vs Texans predictions

The Jacksonville Jaguars welcomed back receiver Zay Jones in Week 11 after he missed all but one game (Week 5) since injuring his knee back in Week 2. 

Jones played 45 snaps (63%) in Jacksonville’s 34-14 beatdown of Tennessee, catching all four passes his way for a total of 20 yards. 

While it wasn’t a huge individual effort from Jones, the Jags did enjoy one of their best offensive performances of the season. Head coach Doug Pederson was quick to point out Jones’ influence on the offense and isn’t capping the WR coming off the injury.

“Zay was ready to go, and he was a big part of this today,” Pederson told the press. “He played tough. He played physical. He made some catches today, and just really I think just having his presence out there opened up some other things for us, but I was proud of Zay.”

Jones and the Jaguars have a chance to build on that offensive outpouring in Week 12, taking on a Houston Texans defense that struggles to slow the pass. The Texans are 22nd in EPA per dropback allowed while giving up 7.6 yards per pass attempt over the past three games.

Jones missed the first matchup with Houston in Week 3 — a stunning 37-17 loss at home — but gives Jacksonville a dangerous downfield threat in Week 12. Player projections for Sunday range for Jones but the bulk come in past his receiving yards prop of 30.5 yards.

My forecast calls for 39 yards for the veteran wideout with some models hanging a ceiling above 47 yards through the air. 

With Jones healthy, his snap counts will continue to climb. He drew 62 snaps in Week 1, finishing with five catches on seven targets for 55 yards, before injuring his knee in Week 2. In the Week 5 London game, he came back for three grabs 23 yards, and a touchdown against Buffalo but left with discomfort in the second half.

"He's just knocking off that rust, just getting back out there in game speed,” Pederson said after Week 11. “He'll continue to get stronger, better, and more confident each week.”

My best bet: Zay Jones Over 30.5 receiving yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Jaguars vs Texans same-game parlay

Zay Jones Over 30.5 receiving yards

Calvin Ridley Over 3.5 receptions

Trevor Lawrence Over 1.5 passing TDs

Jones doesn’t need much to go Over this shorter total and his role in this offense will increase in his second game back.

On top of that, his presence spreads out the secondary and allows Ridley to move around and draw different looks against a bad Texans pass defense.

I also expect Trevor Lawrence to continue his hot hand with another multi-touchdown day, getting a little payback for the Week 3 loss to Houston.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Jaguars vs Texans spread and Over/Under analysis

Bookies weren’t sure where to go with the spread on Sunday night. 

Jacksonville opened between -1.5 and +1.5 and the market bounced around in the first few hours of action before settling at a consensus of Jaguars -1.5 after money showed up Monday and grabbed any underdog lines with the visitor.

As of Wednesday, Jacksonville is a consensus -1.5 road chalk with some books as high as -2. Covers Consensus’ numbers show 57% of early-week picks siding with the Jaguars in Week 12.

Jacksonville has come a long way since losing to Houston at home in Week 3, with just one loss in the seven games since. The Jaguars, who are 6-1 ATS in that span as well, rank No. 8 in EPA allowed per play defensively and No. 13 in EPA per play offensively, making them one of the stronger two-way teams in the past eight weeks.

However, Jacksonville has played plenty of bottom-tier teams in this stretch and was blasted by San Francisco in its lone game against elite competition. Where do the Texans sit in the NFL pecking order after winning three in a row?

Houston is 6-2 SU since knocking off the Jaguars in Week 3, including 5-3 ATS. The Texans are No. 6 in EPA per play during that run with rookie QB C.J. Stroud playing beyond his years. 

That ATS success has started to dwindle, however. Houston is 1-3 ATS in the last four games and the betting market is no longer treating the Texans like a toilet-bowl team of the past two seasons — as evidenced by some opening lines listing them as faves in Week 12.

Those burned Houston bettors can blame the defense for this downtick in ATS success, with the stop unit allowing 80 combined points during this three-game winning streak. Houston has allowed 5.7 yards per play to foes as well as a 66.67% success rate in the red zone during this stretch.

The Texans were actually outgained in yards 404-366 in that first meeting with the Jags but benefitted from two turnovers from Jacksonville. The teams also combined for a 3-for-7 day inside the red zone, yet still went Over the closing total of 43.5 points in Week 3.

This Week 12 Over/Under number opened just a touch higher at 44.5 points and rocketed upward to as high as 48.5, as of Wednesday. Covers Consensus shows 63% of early total picks taking the Over.

Jacksonville is 5-5 Over/Under on the season, including 2-1 O/U in true road games. The Jags sit on the slower end of offensive tempo, with 28.9 seconds per snap, and rank middle of the road in points per play.

As for Houston, it brings a 4-6 O/U count into Week 12 and has topped the total in two of its last three contests. The Texans run one of the most up-tempo attacks in terms of pace, ranked fourth fastest in seconds per play (27.4). 

Jaguars vs Texans betting trend to know

Jacksonville is 1-10 SU and 3-8 ATS in its last 11 AFC South matchups with the Texans. Find more NFL betting trends for Jaguars vs. Texans.

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Jaguars vs Texans game info

Location: NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
Date: Sunday, November 26, 2023
Kickoff: 1:00 p.m. ET
Opening odds: Texans +1.5, 45.5 O/U

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