Jaguars vs Lions Week 13 Picks and Predictions: Targets Aplenty for St. Brown

Both Detroit and Jacksonville are in the midst of their best football of the season and will now meet at Ford Field in Week 13. Find out why we're all over an Amon-Ra St Brown prop in our Jaguars vs. Lions betting picks.

Jeremy Jones - Betting Analyst at Covers
Jeremy Jones • Betting Analyst
Dec 4, 2022 • 08:26 ET • 4 min read
Amon-Ra St. Brown Detroit Lions NFL
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Two 4-7 teams that have recently turned things around will meet on Sunday afternoon when the Jacksonville Jaguars travel to Detroit to face the Lions.

The Jaguars are coming off an upset win over the Ravens and are winners of two of their past three games. The Lions lost a close home game to the Bills on Thanksgiving but had won their three games prior. Which team will continue their hot streak this Sunday?

Find out in our free NFL betting picks and predictions for the Jaguars vs. Lions on December 4. 

Jaguars vs Lions best odds

Jaguars vs Lions picks and predictions

Both defenses have had their fair share of issues this season that led to rough starts in the win column. The Lions rank last in the NFL, allowing both 28.2 points and 414.5 total yards per game. Detroit has only held two teams to under 20 points and is also allowed four opponents to surpass 30 points in 2022.

However, things are not much better on Jacksonville’s side. The Jaguars are ranked 24th in the league in total defense at 362.9 yards per game. They are especially bad in the passing game, allowing 248.1 yards per contest. The Lions are allowing an even worse 259.9 passing yards per match.

Both defenses depend heavily on causing turnovers to keep their opponents out of the end zone. The Lions have forced 14 turnovers and at least one in every game since failing to do so in Week 1 against Philadelphia. The Jaguars forced eight turnovers during their 2-1 start and have come up with six more in their most recent 2-1 run.

Luckily for Detroit, the Lions have only turned the ball over three times in their previous five games. Their balanced attack on offense has really led to their recent turnaround in the win column. Detroit has averaged 190.0 passing yards and 117.0 rushing yards per game in its last four contests.

Wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown has been a target machine this season and should continue to be Jared Goff's favorite weapon on Sunday. He's averaged 10.1 targets in his eight games with at least 73% of snaps played and is also averaging 7.5 catches for 86.8 yards per contest during that span.

The Jaguars allowed Davante Adams to have 10 catches for 146 yards and Michael Pittman Jr. to snag 13 catches for 134 yards in recent weeks. St. Brown should have no problem reaching his reception total in this game, and he is my best bet of the week in the NFL.

My best bet: Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 6.5 receptions (-150)

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Jaguars vs Lions spread analysis

Once again, it is looking like the Lions will find themselves as underdogs in a game. They are 7-3 against the spread in such situations this season and 4-1 ATS as home underdogs. Detroit has also covered in four consecutive games. 

Meanwhile, the Jaguars will be favorites for the fourth time this season, and they are 0-3 ATS in their last three. Jacksonville failed to cover five consecutive games before its most recent 2-0-1 ATS run in the past three contests. The Jags are 1-3-1 ATS in true road games this year.

With St. Brown having his way in the receiving game, DeAndre Swift and Jamaal Williams should also be able to find holes in the running game. The Jaguars have allowed at least 150 rushing yards in three of the last five games and have also given up 10 rushing touchdowns this season. Williams is averaging 4.1 yards per run, and Swift is at 5.8 yards per attempt.

The balanced offense of Detroit, mixed with its ability to hold on to the ball, leads me to believe it should be able to win this game at home against a bad defense. The Jaguars will get theirs on offense, but they will just not be able to match the Lions punch for punch.

Give me the Lions at home in what's basically a pick'em.

Jaguars vs Lions Over/Under analysis

Not only are both defenses having a rough go of this season, but both offenses are able to put points up on the board. The Lions rank eighth in the NFL in both points and total yards per game at 25.0 points and 362.9 yards per contest. The Jaguars average 22.2 points (16th) and 359.5 total yards (9th) per game.

The Over is 7-4 in Detroit games this season and is 3-1 in its four wins. The Over is 6-1 in the last seven road games for the Jaguars. Travis Etienne Jr. is expected to be a full-go on Sunday, which will help keep the Jaguars in the game on offense. However, if he must leave again, JaMychal Hasty proved to be more than a capable fill-in last week against the Ravens.

This game has all the makings of a shootout if each offense can hold onto the football. The Lions have already played in four games this season that went over 60 total points. This total of 51 should be no problem in a game with tons of yards. Give me the Over. 

Jaguars vs Lions betting trend to know

The Jaguars are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games in December. Find more NFL betting trends for Jaguars vs. Lions.

Jaguars vs Lions game info

Location: Ford Field, Detroit, MI
Date: Sunday, December 4, 2022
Kickoff: 1:00 p.m. ET
Opening odds: Lions PK, 51.5 O/U

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