Commanders vs. 49ers computer picks put Jayden Daniels' arm and Brock Purdy's legs in the spotlight for Monday Night Football, with eight player props to consider as unbeaten San Francisco hosts Washington.
The 5-0 49ers are 7.5-point home favorites against the 1-3-1 Commanders, with kickoff set for 8:15 p.m. ET at Levi's Stadium. See what our Covers prop projections suggest about this matchup, and check out more NFL picks for Week 6.
Commanders vs 49ers computer picks
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
 Commanders |
 49ers |
|---|---|
| Jayden Daniels o199.5 passing yards 55% |
Brock Purdy u0.5 interceptions 58% |
| Rachaad White o49.5 rushing yards 43% |
Brock Purdy o19.5 rushing yards 48% |
| Terry McLaurin o49.5 receiving yards 49% |
Mike Evans u69.5 receiving yards 48% |
| Terry McLaurin anytime touchdown 31% |
Brock Purdy anytime touchdown 20% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
Start trading with Kalshi today!
Sign up now using our exclusive Kalshi promo code 'MAX60' and trade $25 on any event contracts to get $60!
*Eligible U.S. locations only
Commanders vs 49ers prop analysis
Commanders computer picks
Jayden Daniels Over 199.5 passing yards (55%)
Projection: 220.81 passing yards
Washington could be forced to throw more often as a 7.5-point underdog, giving Jayden Daniels a path past this manageable passing line. Daniels finished with 199 passing yards against the Giants last week, while the 49ers have faced 37.4 opposing pass attempts per game this season. Our computer projects 220.81 passing yards, more than 21 above the 199.5-yard mark.
🔥 Trade Daniels passing yards now
Rachaad White Over 49.5 rushing yards (43%)
Projection: 53.70 rushing yards
With Jacory Croskey-Merritt ruled out, Rachaad White is positioned for a larger share of Washington's backfield work. He has gained 118 yards on 29 carries this season, averaging 4.1 per rush, and should have opportunities alongside Austin Ekeler. The model projects 53.70 rushing yards, clearing the 49.5-yard line. Kalshi's 43% price makes this an interesting longer-shot Over rather than a certainty.
🔥 Trade White rushing yards now
Terry McLaurin Over 49.5 receiving yards (49%)
Projection: 60.41 receiving yards
Terry McLaurin has been cleared to play after dealing with a hamstring issue, and he has recorded 203 receiving yards in four appearances. San Francisco has encouraged opposing quarterbacks to throw frequently, and the Covers model expects McLaurin to get a plethora of targets. With Washington potentially chasing points, our 60.41-yard projection sits nearly 11 yards above his 49.5-yard receiving line.
🔥 Trade McLaurin receiving yards now
Terry McLaurin anytime touchdown (31%)
Projection: 0.43 touchdowns
McLaurin has scored once in four games, but a pass-heavy game script gives Washington's established downfield threat another chance to find the end zone. The Commanders could need to take shots to stay close to an undefeated San Francisco team, and McLaurin figures to remain a prominent target. Our model projects 0.43 touchdowns, while Kalshi lists the anytime scorer at 31%.
🔥 Trade McLaurin anytime touchdown now
49ers computer picks
Brock Purdy Under 0.5 interceptions (58%)
Projection: 0.41 interceptions
Brock Purdy has thrown 13 touchdowns against just two interceptions through five starts, keeping the ball out of defenders' hands in three of those games. Washington blitzes frequently, but its pressure has not always translated into sacks, creating opportunities for Purdy to find open receivers. Our 0.41-interception projection leans toward another clean game, matching the Under 0.5 market at 58%.
🏈 Trade Purdy interceptions now
Brock Purdy Over 19.5 rushing yards (48%)
Projection: 29.37 rushing yards
Purdy has quietly added a useful rushing element to San Francisco's offense, picking up 128 yards on 25 carries through five games — an average of 25.6 yards per outing. Washington's aggressive blitz packages can create space when a quarterback escapes the pocket, and the 49ers' favored game script could include plenty of runs. The computer projects 29.37 rushing yards, nearly 10 above the 19.5-yard line.
🔥 Trade Purdy rushing yards now
Mike Evans Under 69.5 receiving yards (48%)
Projection: 68.50 receiving yards
Mike Evans has averaged 65.2 receiving yards across his first five games with San Francisco, just below this line, although he is coming off a 113-yard outing against Seattle. More importantly, he's questionable for Monday with ribs and Achilles concerns after missing practice. Our 68.50-yard projection is only one yard below the 69.5-yard total, making this a narrow Under lean that depends heavily on Evans' availability and workload.
🏈 Trade Evans receiving yards now
Brock Purdy anytime touchdown (20%)
Projection: 0.29 touchdowns
Purdy has rushed for one touchdown through five games and is projected to be involved on the ground again tonight. With San Francisco favored by 7.5 points, a designed keeper or scramble near the goal line could give the quarterback a chance to score himself. Our model projects 0.29 touchdowns compared with Kalshi's 20% anytime TD price.
🔥 Trade Purdy anytime touchdown now
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
