The Denver Broncos get a short week to shake off a rough loss and prepare for their Week 2 home opener against the Jacksonville Jaguars, and my Jaguars vs. Broncos predictions look at what will be an important matchup to the AFC pecking order.
Denver looked bad on every level during Monday’s beatdown in Kansas City, and the team gets another stiff test from Jacksonville.
Here are my early leans and NFL picks for Sept. 20.
Jaguars vs Broncos predictions
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Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Early Jaguars vs Broncos spread pick: Broncos outright
A trip to Arrowhead Stadium in prime time is a tough way to open the season, so I’m not discounting the Denver Broncos too much.
Offensive coordinator Davis Webb was out of his depth as a first-time playcaller, matching wits with Steve Spagnuolo’s crazy-ass schemes. Luckily, there's a safety net in Sean Payton to help round out his game plan for Week 2.
The Jacksonville Jaguars benefited from a much cushier opening opponent versus Cleveland. They blew the Browns out of the water in Week 1, inflating their power rating with a 34-10 victory.
Jacksonville now travels up the mountain to face a stiffer test, but also thin air at Mile High, which is compounded early in the season as teams work their way into game shape.
The Broncos have always been a tough out in Denver, and especially during home openers. Since 2000, Denver is 21-5 straight up and 14-8-4 against the spread in their first home game of the season.
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Early Jaguars vs Broncos total pick: Over 44.5
Jacksonville was able to hang 34 points on Cleveland’s defense, which is still a solid unit. The Browns run some similar stuff as Denver, with heavy blitzing and mostly man coverage, and Trevor Lawrence enjoyed success versus the Broncos last season.
Lawrence led the Jaguars to a 34-20 victory in Denver during Week 16 (topping the 46.5 O/U), passing for 279 yards and three touchdowns. Jacksonville recorded 22 first downs and went 4-for-5 in the red zone. The 2026 attack looks even better in Year 2 under Liam Coen.
The Broncos’ playbook needs work, but there’s more meat on the bone than what we saw in the opener at Kansas City. Denver fell behind quickly and needed to abandon the run game, handing off only 15 times while becoming one-dimensional.
Significant offseason addition Jaylen Waddle was targeted only three times for one catch versus the Chiefs. Payton and Webb need to make him a priority and could enjoy success with deeper shots, as the Jaguars allowed the Browns to hit some home runs over the top.
Jaguars vs Broncos odds
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Jaguars vs Broncos spread: Broncos -2.5
- Jaguars vs Broncos moneyline: Jaguars 46%, Broncos 54%
- Jaguars vs Broncos Over/Under: 44.5
How to watch Jaguars vs Broncos
- Date: Sunday, Sept. 20, 2026, 4:05 p.m. ET
- City: Denver, Colorado
- Venue: Empower Field at Mile High Stadium
- TV: CBS
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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