We are down to the final four teams in the running for the Super Bowl after all the favorites won during the divisional round of the playoffs last weekend. We touch on the frigid weather expected for the Patriots-Chiefs game as we bring you the must-read betting notes to help you crack the NFL odds for this Sunday's conference championship games. **video
COLD COMING TO KC
When you see that a January playoff game is going to be played in Kansas City, you expect it to be cold. But maybe not this kind of cold. Yes, there’s still a good chance that the weather forecast will change but for now, a brutal cold snap is expected to affect the AFC Championship Game.
AFC Championship game is in Kansas City --> Sunday evening. #ChiefsKingdom(-3.0) #Patriots
— Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) January 14, 2019
6-day weather forecasts are BRUTALLY cold -- and I mean very COLD. Game time temperatures from models range from -5°F to 10°F
Arctic blast is centered right over Arrowhead Stadium pic.twitter.com/if7MnZ3YDw
If this weather forecast holds, Sunday’s game could enter the record books, as the coldest game in history previously played at Arrowhead Stadium was 1 degree Fahrenheit at kickoff.
So how will this affect the game from a betting angle? Bettors might be tempted by the Under with the theory that it’s harder to score points in the cold. And some already have, with the total dropping from 57 to 55.5. But is this theory statistically valid?
Since 2003, the Over is actually cashing at 58.8 percent (114-80-2) in all games (regular season and playoffs) played in temperatures 30 degrees or lower. In the playoffs alone, that percentage drops to 52.3 percent (23-21-1) at 30 degrees or less but then spikes to 62.5 percent (10-6-1) in games played in 20 degrees or less. With kickoff temperatures expected to be well below 20 degrees, that’s a nice trend towards the Over.
The theory that the Under is a good play because of the cold is simply not true. However, if you’re looking to back to the Over, you might want to wait a few days to see if the line drops a bit more seeing as how the public is bound to back the Under as more and more casual bettors hear about the expected frigid temperatures.
CHIEFS D STEPS UP
Perhaps the biggest surprise of the Divisional Round was the play of Kansas City’s defense. It was a unit that struggled throughout the regular season with a rank of 26th in overall DVOA while giving up the second-most total yards per game in the league (405.5). Then they went out and shut down the hottest quarterback in the league, holding Andrew Luck without a pass completion in the first quarter and without an offensive touchdown until the game was well out of reach with 5:31 remaining in the fourth. Luck wound up throwing for just 203 yards on 19-of-36 passing while Marlon Mack was stuffed to the tune of 46 yards on nine carries, which was actually an inflated total as one of his carries went for 20 yards.
Shutting down the Colts was impressive but this week is a totally different challenge with Tom Brady and co. coming to town. The Patriots looked unstoppable on Sunday against what was a very good Chargers defense, scoring touchdowns on each of their first three possessions en route to the 41-point performance.
New England torched the Chiefs for 43 points back in Week 6, though it should be noted that K.C. was a much better unit at home during the regular season, allowing 17.4 points per game as compared to 34.6 on the road. Still, it’s Brady and Belichick in the playoffs and we’re expecting them to craft a game plan in which they score early and often against the Chiefs on Sunday. Our early-week lean is towards the Over 26.5 for New England’s team total.
GINN GETS LOVE
One of the more surprising storylines from Sunday’s Saints-Eagles win was New Orleans receiver Ted Ginn. He caught just three passes for 44 yards but the line that really jumps out is that Drew Brees targeted him seven times, which was second on the team to Michael Thomas’ 16 looks. Ginn actually could have had a monster game if Brees had not underthrown him on the game’s opening play that should have been a long touchdown but instead was an interception. Regardless, it was obvious that Brees wanted to get him the ball and that should again be the case on Sunday as the Saints host the Rams.
The Rams have an above-average pass defense, with a rank of ninth in passing DVOA during the regular season, but were burned by Dallas’s WR2, Michael Gallup, on Saturday to the tune of 6-119 on nine targets. Michael Thomas went bananas with a 12-171-1 line against the Eagles and he’ll surely be the focus of the Rams’ defensive game plan for the NFC Championship Game. We’re thinking Ginn could fly under the radar and we’ll be looking to play the Over for his receiving yards total.
RAMS RUN WILD
What a performance it was from the Rams’ running game on Saturday, racking up 273 rushing yards and three touchdowns on 48 carries. Dallas was a tough matchup on paper, with the fifth-ranked defense in rushing DVOA during the regular season, but the Cowboys had been vulnerable to the run on the road late in the season and that held true on Saturday (and got us a winner in backing the Over for Gurley’s rushing total).
Sunday will be an even tougher matchup, in theory, as the Saints ranked third in rushing DVOA during the regular season and then held the Eagles to 49 rushing yards on 16 carries last weekend.
It will also be tough to predict who will be doing the bulk of the work in the Rams’ backfield this weekend. C.J. Anderson actually led L.A. in carries last weekend and posted a line of 23-123-2, while Todd Gurley went for 16-115-1 in what was his first game since Dec. 16. Gurley’s long layoff was likely the reason why Anderson out-touched him, but all Anderson has done is run for rushing totals of 167, 132, and 123 while scoring four times in his three games with the Rams. He has to be involved against the Saints.
Our early-week lean is to stay off the rushing totals for both running backs as it’s tough to say how Sean McVay will use them, but we do like the idea of both of them getting goal-line touches at some point during the game and at +125, we’re backing Anderson to score a touchdown at any time.
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